PMT Forum
How do you want to make money today?

investing/buy-and-hold/timing the market

benlo99 · 65 · 15150

benlo99

  • Junior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 29
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
on: Sep 11, 2014, 07:47 AM
salamat ng marami sa mga replies sa previous question ko. may isang bagay pa po akong gustong malinawan,. may mga books na rin po kc akong nabasa ang mejo confusing, alin po ba ang mas mabuti, mag buy and hold ka, or u time the market. assuning nag invest ako sa mutual fund or uitf, ang sabi kc sa ilang books, it is best that u buy and hold, just keep your money there, gusto ko pong malaman, sangayon po ba kayo sa idea na ito, na once nag buy ka ng mutual fund, buy-and-hold mo na lang. sabi pa, most probably,if u time the market, e baka nga mas maliit pa ang kintain mo kc u will miss it most of the time, tama po ba ang principle na ito? and isa na lang po, how about kung hindi mutual fund/uitf, what if u invest sa stocks talaga, meralco pldt etc, ung principle po ba ng buy-and-hold ay ganun din ka epektibo or less effective ba ito at mas bagay lang ito sa mutual funds? salamat po sa mga sasagot


jmces

  • PMT Idol 1000
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,109
    • Likes Received: +2/-0
Reply #1 on: Sep 11, 2014, 08:49 AM
salamat ng marami sa mga replies sa previous question ko. may isang bagay pa po akong gustong malinawan,. may mga books na rin po kc akong nabasa ang mejo confusing, alin po ba ang mas mabuti, mag buy and hold ka, or u time the market. assuning nag invest ako sa mutual fund or uitf, ang sabi kc sa ilang books, it is best that u buy and hold, just keep your money there, gusto ko pong malaman, sangayon po ba kayo sa idea na ito, na once nag buy ka ng mutual fund, buy-and-hold mo na lang. sabi pa, most probably,if u time the market, e baka nga mas maliit pa ang kintain mo kc u will miss it most of the time, tama po ba ang principle na ito? and isa na lang po, how about kung hindi mutual fund/uitf, what if u invest sa stocks talaga, meralco pldt etc, ung principle po ba ng buy-and-hold ay ganun din ka epektibo or less effective ba ito at mas bagay lang ito sa mutual funds? salamat po sa mga sasagot

if by buy and hold you mean, one time buy and do nothing, you might get burned. if you have a long investment horizon and if you dont have problem in just doing not much action or sometimes doing nothing in the market, you might want to read on value investing. if you want to do something everyday and you have the time and want fast gains then you might want to read more on technical analysis. each approach have its pros and cons, it is up to you to find out which one works for you, you may even combine the two and come up with your own strat.


patski

  • Senior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 99
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #2 on: Sep 11, 2014, 09:16 AM
There is more to stock market investing than buying and selling individual stocks. Ang importante is hindi ka malulugi. Meron kang rule si W. Buffet "Dont lose your money", as how you can follow this rule. Study, study, and study more.


prnd32

  • Forum Master 300
  • ***
    • Posts: 369
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #3 on: Sep 11, 2014, 10:01 AM
I have another option for you.  SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL


benlo99

  • Junior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 29
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #4 on: Sep 12, 2014, 07:18 AM
to pmd32, wat is SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL, parang timing the market din po ito diba


prnd32

  • Forum Master 300
  • ***
    • Posts: 369
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #5 on: Sep 12, 2014, 12:27 PM
timing the market and buy-and-hold are two extreme approaches,  SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL is the middle ground.
« Last Edit: Sep 12, 2014, 12:29 PM by prnd32 »


ilnlnrc

  • Senior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 70
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #6 on: Sep 12, 2014, 02:28 PM
timing the market and buy-and-hold are two extreme approaches,  SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL is the middle ground.



Alin po dito ang case na ito:

Example
Juan  buys at 8 php per share.  Advisor says FV at 10php.
So Juan sells when stock reaches price of 10php per share and not bothered whether stock price goes higher than 10php?

Ty.


benlo99

  • Junior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 29
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #7 on: Sep 14, 2014, 07:48 AM
san po ako matututo ng SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL, is there any book?


Wills

  • PMT Jedi 2500
  • ****
    • Posts: 2,766
    • Likes Received: +3/-0
Reply #8 on: Sep 14, 2014, 03:44 PM
timing the market and buy-and-hold are two extreme approaches,  SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL is the middle ground.

There are two types of market timers in the stock market, fundamental analyst and technical analyst.


Wills

  • PMT Jedi 2500
  • ****
    • Posts: 2,766
    • Likes Received: +3/-0
Reply #9 on: Sep 15, 2014, 06:09 AM


Alin po dito ang case na ito:

Example
Juan  buys at 8 php per share.  Advisor says FV at 10php.
So Juan sells when stock reaches price of 10php per share and not bothered whether stock price goes higher than 10php?

Ty.


It is what you call profiting from a swing of a pendulum. Buy below FV sell above FV.

The only problem you have there is choosing who to trust, your analysis or brokers analysis in determining the FV. In that strategy you are swimming against the herds so confidence is the key because you will literally say to yourself "all of you are wrong and I'm right about this price!" Hahahah. Once an investor is decided on the price and already taken a position the swing of the pendulum(price fluctuation) should be viewed as an opportunity and not a risk for your investment.


It's that simple, but not easy. You need to be right on "what is going to happen in the future" and should not focus on "when exactly is this going to happen". Always remember that in stock market money is made in the "waiting". Last, you need to be right on valuing the stock, but you cannot be precise it's always a case of "somewhere in that range".
« Last Edit: Sep 15, 2014, 06:25 AM by Wills »


lemreyes

  • Forum Tambay 200
  • ***
    • Posts: 219
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #10 on: Sep 15, 2014, 09:26 AM
salamat ng marami sa mga replies sa previous question ko. may isang bagay pa po akong gustong malinawan,. may mga books na rin po kc akong nabasa ang mejo confusing, alin po ba ang mas mabuti, mag buy and hold ka, or u time the market. assuning nag invest ako sa mutual fund or uitf, ang sabi kc sa ilang books, it is best that u buy and hold, just keep your money there, gusto ko pong malaman, sangayon po ba kayo sa idea na ito, na once nag buy ka ng mutual fund, buy-and-hold mo na lang. sabi pa, most probably,if u time the market, e baka nga mas maliit pa ang kintain mo kc u will miss it most of the time, tama po ba ang principle na ito? and isa na lang po, how about kung hindi mutual fund/uitf, what if u invest sa stocks talaga, meralco pldt etc, ung principle po ba ng buy-and-hold ay ganun din ka epektibo or less effective ba ito at mas bagay lang ito sa mutual funds? salamat po sa mga sasagot

How about you research on Trend-following strategy.  Its not buy-and-hold, but its not timing the market either.  It's going with the general direction where the market or stock is going.

What I liked about my new approach is:
1. No emotions involved.  My decisions are already predetermined.  I buy when the trend is confirmed, sell when I get a signal to sell.
2. No need for too much FA and news-reading consuming my time.  I just watch for the price and indicators.  So less time on stocks, more time on hobbies and family.
3. Easy to decide how much to invest in a stock.  I just use a 1% position size.
4. Can still be used with a longer time horizon.  My holding periods are still in weeks and months, since I'm using the 30-week MA.
5. No more need to set a target price and estimating a stocks value.  I no longer care about future values of a stock.  If a stock had a target price at 10... i won't sell at 10!  I will sell when there is a sell signal or my stop-loss is reached.   


LiveLoveInvest

  • Forum Tambay 100
  • ***
    • Posts: 147
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
Reply #11 on: Sep 15, 2014, 10:08 AM
Time in the market is better than timing the market  :applause:


Wills

  • PMT Jedi 2500
  • ****
    • Posts: 2,766
    • Likes Received: +3/-0
Reply #12 on: Sep 15, 2014, 03:49 PM
Time in the market is better than timing the market  :applause:


That definitely makes sense! Hahaha


ferrariEverest

  • VIP 5500
  • *****
    • Posts: 5,593
    • Likes Received: +4/-0
Reply #13 on: Sep 15, 2014, 04:50 PM
How about you research on Trend-following strategy.  Its not buy-and-hold, but its not timing the market either.  It's going with the general direction where the market or stock is going.

What I liked about my new approach is:
1. No emotions involved.  My decisions are already predetermined.  I buy when the trend is confirmed, sell when I get a signal to sell.
2. No need for too much FA and news-reading consuming my time.  I just watch for the price and indicators.... 
Timing is inherent in trend-following. Why?

You use indicators that are time-based (30-WEEK MA, etc.). When an indicator you follow does something pre-determined, then it is TIME for you to execute a trade (sell/buy).

There are two types of market timers in the stock market, fundamental analyst and technical analyst.
Fundamental analysts cannot time the market, only technical analysts can. It's not surprising to see "fundamental analysts" use charts or indicators (which are technical analyst's tools) to "time" the market.

By the time people get hold of information and companies release information to the PUBLIC, insiders, company owners, and technical analysts already made their moves (buy or sell) to their respective benefits.

san po ako matututo ng SELECT-BUY-MONITOR-HOLD-SELL, is there any book?
You'll likely get ideas from not one, but several international books.

I am not aware of local books that could help you. You can try subscription services like Pinoyinvestor (if you like fundamentals and technicals) and Tradingphoenix (if you like technicals). Google mo na lang Sir. Pinoyinvestor is owned by PMT's owner, while Tradingphoenix uses price action and support and resistance, "techniques" which I highly recommend to all traders.

Time in the market is better than timing the market  :applause:
That sounds like something you read from a book.

People who say that do not know how to time the market. People who say that also forget that time OUTSIDE the market is also very beneficial.

Food for thought! :)


Wills

  • PMT Jedi 2500
  • ****
    • Posts: 2,766
    • Likes Received: +3/-0
Reply #14 on: Sep 15, 2014, 05:53 PM

Fundamental analysts cannot time the market, only technical analysts can. It's not surprising to see "fundamental analysts" use charts or indicators (which are technical analyst's tools) to "time" the market.

By the time people get hold of information and companies release information to the PUBLIC, insiders, company owners, and technical analysts already made their moves (buy or sell) to their respective benefits.




FYI fundamental analyst (not a hybrid one) does not use technical analysis to time the market so everything you said is wrong.

A true fundamental analyst knows the value of the company and that is his gauge to know if the market is being greedy or being fearful.

Technical analyst times the market by forecasting the price based on charts, indicators etc.

Fundamental analyst times the market by using market's psychology and the center of their decision is the fair value of an individual stock.



 


PMT Shoutbox

Refresh History
  • Post only questions or comments here. Advertisements NOT ALLOWED.
  • oragon: :applause:
    May 20, 2019, 03:53 PM
  • FutureGizmo: Thank you for reporting those spam posts, oragon! Spam posts now deleted.
    May 20, 2019, 01:59 PM
  • oragon: Admin kindly monitor some peps! posting and sharing inappropriate nude photos and website links
    May 20, 2019, 01:52 PM
  • @culinary10: Hello I am new here! Regarding sa bdo life insurance for 8 years, pwede pa kaya ma refund yung binayad ko na 50k last year? Gusto ko sana icancel kasi lack of financial na, last may 15 2018 po un nag start ako ng life insurance, pinili ko annually kaso etong may 15 2019 wala nako ma ipay so gusto ko sana icash out, may alam ba kayo kung pano marerefund?
    May 17, 2019, 07:56 PM
  • FutureGizmo: Hi Sonny, the posting issue is now resolved. Thanks for informing us! We're currently testing a new, mobile-ready theme so let us us know kung may problema pa sa Forum. :)
    Apr 04, 2019, 10:40 AM
  • sonny.wapak: Nakaka receive din ba kayo nito pag gawa ng new post? "Please try again. If you come back to this error screen, report the error to an administrator."
    Apr 03, 2019, 10:56 PM
  • leonine_zafiro: what product nun?
    Apr 01, 2019, 10:25 PM
  • dhondiex27: hi
    Mar 30, 2019, 10:55 PM
  • lusart: jayrob i agree 200%. hulog ng langit organico. legit na legit
    Mar 29, 2019, 09:08 AM
  • palemelch: Hi
    Mar 28, 2019, 04:08 PM
  • O.C.W._AK: Magandang Araw sa Lahat! Blessings! (",)
    Mar 28, 2019, 08:42 AM
  • thor15: hello everyone, newbie here
    Mar 25, 2019, 01:47 AM
  • captjaylo: present newbie here
    Mar 22, 2019, 10:06 AM
  • balboagilbert26: hello Guys .. Newbie here
    Mar 21, 2019, 10:55 PM
  • businesswoman2019: @jefsanity nag inquire na po ako pero di sila nagdidisclose. Yung branch po kasi na target ko, currently building pa.
    Mar 21, 2019, 04:27 PM
  • jefsanity: @businesswoman2019, much better inquire ka na lang sa admin nila.
    Mar 21, 2019, 01:51 PM
  • businesswoman2019: Hello! Any idea how much ang stall sa waltermart. 2m x 2m
    Mar 21, 2019, 08:28 AM
  • John Neil: Looking for an accredited iron foundry
    Mar 17, 2019, 03:19 PM
  • jayrob: Mark_Lee ung organico legit po yan..  Member din AQ..
    Mar 17, 2019, 12:57 AM
  • perlymelad: Hello po! Need advice, why my new MLM leaders failing?
    Mar 14, 2019, 08:51 PM
  • perlymelad: Present
    Mar 12, 2019, 07:53 PM
  • kennethmauricio: Hi saan po dito pwede mag post ng for sale properties?
    Mar 11, 2019, 07:58 PM
  • jefsanity: @mark_lee isipin mo anu passion mo at skills mo...
    Mar 11, 2019, 06:52 PM
  • sniperaj09: BAGO LANG
    Mar 10, 2019, 11:16 AM
  • mark_Lee: magandang investnent ngayon sa 30k suggest naman keo mga boss
    Mar 10, 2019, 03:07 AM
  • perlymelad: E-BOOK PO SIR @JEFSANITY
    Mar 09, 2019, 05:40 PM
  • perlymelad: @jefsanity Good Morning Po
    Mar 09, 2019, 05:39 PM
  • perlymelad: Good Day everyone
    Mar 04, 2019, 06:24 PM
  • jefsanity: anu ang small business na yan?
    Feb 28, 2019, 07:40 PM
  • perlymelad: Good Day Everyone
    Feb 28, 2019, 03:31 PM
  • perlymelad: Hello everyone, CAN ANYONE HELP ME SUGGEST ANY SIDE TOPIC  / PROBLEM OF  STARTING SMALL BUSINESS?
    Feb 28, 2019, 06:58 AM
  • perlymelad: Present, 1st time po
    Feb 25, 2019, 06:17 PM
  • jd2281: newbie po
    Feb 25, 2019, 12:26 PM
  • ejllantino: present... 1st time
    Feb 24, 2019, 07:14 PM
  • rheiel: present. first time
    Feb 24, 2019, 11:04 AM
  • MELVIE: thanks po
    Feb 24, 2019, 12:50 AM
  • steph123: hello po, ask lang po, ilang months po ba ang hihintayin after mo ma process ang mga documents para maitama ang mali sa NSO?
    Feb 11, 2019, 03:13 PM
  • Deborah: newbie here.thanks
    Feb 08, 2019, 02:17 PM
  • marj0503: hello im newbie here
    Jan 31, 2019, 10:53 AM
  • yan24: any one here planning to start a tesda skill training center
    Jan 26, 2019, 12:07 PM
  • manzjon: Forex trading forum
    Jan 25, 2019, 02:16 PM
  • Lizette Ramos: Pwede po bang patulong... Maganda po ba ang gasul retailing business?
    Jan 24, 2019, 09:14 PM
  • Imnobody: Hi sino naghahanap ng casino financer dito?
    Jan 16, 2019, 09:59 PM
  • Odlanyer22: Good day!
    Jan 16, 2019, 09:55 PM
  • maryen: at kung sakaling may somobra sa food na nailuto.. dapat po bang bayaran ng client un .. or ipapa take mo na sakanila?...
    Jan 16, 2019, 03:52 PM
  • maryen: HI! GOOD DAY! newbiz lang po... question lang po regarding sa catering.. if may 50pax po ako dapat lang po ba na sakto ang serving ng food?
    Jan 16, 2019, 03:50 PM
  • mark_Lee: cno na nag organico dito scam po ba yun or legit
    Jan 09, 2019, 03:04 AM
  • kuray08: Have a Prosperous New Year to all..
    Jan 06, 2019, 09:27 PM
  • ethan: Sino po may auto supply business dito? How profitable po ba ito in terms of monthly income? Lalo na kung meron na one or two na competition.
    Jan 04, 2019, 11:34 AM
  • Niel Jhacoubs: HAPPY NEW YEAR!
    Jan 02, 2019, 04:37 PM