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CLIFF the INVESTOR'S thread

cliffhanger · 347 · 68292

cliffhanger

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on: Dec 07, 2010, 06:28 PM
since i am not swing trading anymore, id like to make a new thread based on my investing strategy :)

My 67th Day with the Stock Market
"We can never be certain about the future and therefore we must continue to be flexible and adaptable so that we can react quickly to the needs of our clients and our market place." Talal Abu-Ghazeleh


another one of those lazy days for me...and it doesn't help when the power goes out. i guess that says something about investing in power, supply is short and demand will always be high. demand for power is promising because it comes hand in hand with the housing shortage we have in the Philippines; you can't build houses without upgrading your power distribution.


its obvious that you should have a long term stocks that are in the power distribution industry. to name a few, you can invest in Aboitiz Power (AP) or indirectly through Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), Energy Development Corp. (EDC), First Philippine Holdings (FPH) or indirectly through Lopez Holdings (LPZ). there are also other Power stocks out there, but these are the most notable.

investing in the property sector is something that has to be considered. there are some articles out there about the Philippines' housing backlog and shortage. heres one article http://business.inquirer.net/money/features/view/20101203-306835/Small-developers-key-to-solving-housing-woes

there are still some cheap stocks in the property sector that are relatively safe. anyway, ill mention them in my stock picks. i think Megaworld (MEG) and Filinvest Land (FLI) is obviously going to be on my list because you can already see it in my portfolio hehehe

anyway, hope you had a good week so far guys!

Post Merge: Dec 08, 2010, 02:22 PM
My 68th Day with the Stock Market
"The main focus in my life now is to open people's minds so no one will be so conceited that they think they have the total truth. They should be eager to learn, to listen, to research and not to confine, to hurt, to kill, those who disagree with them." John Templeton


Facebook is such a great tool, you can connect not just to your friends, but also to strangers you share common interests with. a lot of features have done well for me, especially the chat feature where you can communicate with each other in real time.

i met some interesting people too through Facebook. i met prophets or prophets in their own right, i also met newbies like myself.

unfortunately, among those on facebook who are interested in the stock market, there are only a handful of business people. most people on facebook like to speculate, they don't want to do the hard work of doing research. some buy a stock just because a prophet said so and when it falls, they blame that prophet. but in truth, we only have ourselves to blame.

the stock market was created so that you can buy businesses. if you dont look at the business fundamentals, then you are not trading nor investing, you are gambling. better play the roulette instead.

also remember, profit and prophet are too different words :)
« Last Edit: Dec 08, 2010, 02:22 PM by cliffhanger »


cliffhanger

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Reply #1 on: Dec 09, 2010, 01:30 PM
My 69th Day with the Stock Market
"If you don't have integrity, you have nothing. You can't buy it. You can have all the money in the world, but if you are not a moral and ethical person, you really have nothing." Henry Kravis


To all the people out there trading in the Philippine Stock Market, BEWARE. there are unethical people promoting and demoting stocks for their own gain. they sell when they promote, and they buy when they demote. some easy money by taking advantage of the clueless.

there are no friends when it comes to money. you canno't really trust anyone in this business.

it is not just one person. they are a team. one starts it and the others second the motion. its obvious. though it may seem that their posts are not connected at all, but subliminally they compliment each other. be vigilant. i hope you have an idea what i am talking about.

i don't really know if what they're doing makes a difference in the movement of the price. but if you can spot 1 sucker, then there are probably a lot more out there.


i pity those who got sucked into this ugly motive.


it came to my attention because i have been receiving messages from my facebook friends about these particular people and their behavior. they gave specific examples on a particular stock and how it got promoted.

i'm sure that what they're doing is illegal at a certain level. its obvious. because when they promote something, a high amount of volume gets traded into the stock. in my opinion, there could be some sort of insider trading going on.


i guess its a little bit expected. even though corporate governance has been implemented by a number of our listed corporations, enforcement still has to cover some considerable ground.

so i hope the Securities and Exchange Commission is on to these online hype masters. i call for everyone out there to help protect the general public's interest in our Stock Market. you have my contact details. do not hesitate to expose such activities. i will also not hesitate to expose such individuals.


bauer

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Reply #2 on: Dec 09, 2010, 08:56 PM
interesting..... i wonder what will the owners of brokerages say about this?

years ago, i visited cotabato city to attend an international bid for a local project. sabi ng kasama kong taga NBI, alam mo dati grabe ang kidnap for ransom dito sa amin pero biglang naglaho. 

sabi ko naman, talaga? anong ginawa ng gobyerno at nawala ang mga krimen?  sabi nung taga-NBI...

as usual wala, pero ang taong bayan, binoto nila bilang mayor ng cotabato city yung gang lider. kaya ayun, nawala ang KFR (kidnap for ransom).

sana hindi rin ganito sa stock market natin.


silent_investor

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Reply #3 on: Dec 10, 2010, 08:53 AM
@Bauer

Maybe they won't say anything. Because as a brokerage house, it doesn't matter if a client gains or not, the important thing for them is that you transact since all buy and sell transactions are "commissioned".


cliffhanger

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Reply #4 on: Dec 10, 2010, 01:50 PM
My 70th Day with the Stock Market
"Business social responsibility should not be coerced; it is a voluntary decision that the entrepreneurial leadership of every company must make on its own." John Mackey


i guess i stirred some controversy yesterday huh. i hope those "Pump and Dump" specialists know that we are on to them. and i hope that the SEC isn't naive enough to finally decide to investigate the activities online. if not, then i guess we all should work together to expose any unethical activity that goes on with our market.

i guess there are also cases were some people are innocently promoting a stock that is actually a bubble. but i guess that's what the "team" wants to do, it wants to stir up enough interest in a particular stock that eventually other people will end up innocently promoting their wicked intentions.

realistically, "Pump and Dump" specialists will never go away. one way or the other, they will keep on doing what they do. the best solution to this is to increase the financial literacy of our stock market investors; remind them that they are investing in businesses.

think about it. if you were a bank that has some cash out to lend, would you lend it to businesses that have bad track records? even if they do, banks will ask for collateral, at a margin. meaning if the value of their collateral is just 1M, the banks might plan to lend them 700k, because just in case the borrower defaults, the bank will be able to sell the asset at about 800k-900k, which gives them a healthy profit.

investors remember, in a way, you are also lending out your money to businesses. and you should make sure that they do a good job in preserving your money. now if you choose to speculate on businesses that do not have the track record to back it up, chances are you slowly lose your money.

be responsible with your money. someone once said that one very important trait an investor has to have in order to be successful is his ability to say "NO". 


TSO

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Reply #5 on: Dec 10, 2010, 03:00 PM
Quote

To all the people out there trading in the Philippine Stock Market, BEWARE. there are unethical people promoting and demoting stocks for their own gain. they sell when they promote, and they buy when they demote. some easy money by taking advantage of the clueless.

Got any concrete examples? :D


richpulubi

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Reply #6 on: Dec 11, 2010, 09:04 PM
I met an old chinese fellow, who was one of the four 'old boy's club'.  They would combine their hundreds of millions to artificially inflate a stock, then dump it when the price goes high enough. 

But that was a decade ago, when there were very few international players.  Now, the big guns like Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse have global computer systems that buys and sells in billions, making fractions on the cent per trade.  I think that is why in one day, someone(or something) sold P600M of pldt shares. 



cliffhanger

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Reply #7 on: Dec 13, 2010, 01:55 PM
My 71st Day with the Stock Market
"It is a waste of time to be angry about my disability. One has to get on with life and I haven't done badly. People won't have time for you if you are always angry or complaining." Stephen Hawking


as you may have noticed, i do receive some very disturbing comments on my blog, shunning what i do, questioning my methods, calling me names. honestly guys, whenever i receive such comments, i do feel some emotion over it. some comments just make my blood shoot up in my head sparking a little frustration too on my end, wanting to fire back with comments that can be as hurtful to him too. some comments actually does more damage than a falling stock does to me.

i am not bullet proof.

but i guess i did that to myself too, with showing my portfolio to make my moves transparent. there will always be people who will be my critics. that is the consequence. its just so convenient when you allow anonymous people to comment on your blog.

however, i can say that i am a relatively calm person. if its one thing i know about life, its that it doesn't happen overnight. a lot more days are here to come. i realize that i shouldn't really stoop down to the level of those who channel their anger and insecurities to me. at the end of the day, we will all die and be one with our creator. everything that happens in life will only be history. ultimately, there is a greater purpose in life.

so don't worry guys. nothing is going to stop me from publishing the truth about the stock market; this is actually what my blog is all about. i will continue doing posts as long as i am still holding some businesses.

i'd like to thank those who support me and my purpose here in my blog. thank you so much for appreciating the risk i am doing for the general public. you're comments too have been a good reminder for me to continue on. i am sincerely very happy to know that i have some supporters, so thank you. all of you inspire me to keep writing :)


rds

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Reply #8 on: Dec 13, 2010, 02:03 PM
^sir;

now that you are into value investing, can we include in your thread and in depth analysis of any stock of interest to us, one at a time so that we can take advantage of your thread.

just suggesting?


TSO

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Reply #9 on: Dec 13, 2010, 04:48 PM
You might as well ask one of the mods to merge it with the current VI's thread...


cliffhanger

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Reply #10 on: Dec 14, 2010, 12:13 PM
My 72nd Day with the Stock Market
"Anger is nothing more than an outward expression of hurt, fear and frustration." Dr. Phil


so if you're angry with me, maybe you might want to check your situation first.

someone just made a very good observation in financemanila.net.. he said that he noticed heated exchanges mostly when the market is in a bearish state, seldom when its a bull market.

for those who took time bashing me, you're welcome. we all need to vent out frustrations one way or the other. so i accept myself as a channel for all that. just don't take too much of your time hating me, that would be an expense. certainly, you have to diversify your time too. put some time on your investments :)

we certainly meet all kinds online..well...all kinds of anonymous that is....


i guess i have been causing some kind of a fiasco for other people invested. but come to think of it, i have only specifically bashed Oriental Peninsula (ORE) because it does have a bad track record, not to mention the fact that the stock is just banking on this 1 shipment they plan to achieve early 2011 (and not to mention the fact that this 1 shipment has already been extended). dont blame me for this guys. its just the numbers thats talking, not me.


other stocks, like Sta. Lucia Land (SLI), i have also discouraged because it has a profit margin of only 2%, inconsistent earnings, high p/e ratio etc.... every stock that i demote i always back up with fundamental numbers.


its not a personal attack on ORE and SLI stock holders every time i demote a stock.

i also notice some get angry too when i continuously mention that a certain stock is undervalued. same thing, i back it up with fundamental numbers.

thats just the thing guys, i refuse to let the market dictate the value of certain businesses. fundamental numbers dictate the value of businesses. companies go public primarily because they need more capital to fund their business. and that capital will be used for the business. i dont think it requires an expert to realize that.


some people are angry too because they say that i talk like an expert and yet i only have 72 days of experience. but come to think of it, do i use too much technical terms here in my blog? earnings, assets, liabilities, book value etc... are those technical terms? i believe they are the most basic business terms. and if you look them up, they are not hard to understand. it doesn't take an expert to look for low price/earnings, low price/book value, high profit margins etc...


and the good thing is that all the data is available to the public. i am simply restating what is already available to everyone.

i am not an expert. but i can say that i am a bit more resourceful.


do i claim that the stock will go up or down? no..i just usually claim that they are undervalued at a certain price. i am not a prophet guys. im just an ordinary guy with an acid test, thats all.

but i understand that some emotions have to get in the way too. money will always be a sensitive topic.

Post Merge: Dec 14, 2010, 02:54 PM
^sir;

now that you are into value investing, can we include in your thread and in depth analysis of any stock of interest to us, one at a time so that we can take advantage of your thread.

just suggesting?

sure, just mention a stock here or in my blog
« Last Edit: Dec 14, 2010, 02:54 PM by cliffhanger »


TSO

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Reply #11 on: Dec 14, 2010, 03:07 PM
Wow many people get angry at you??? O_O

Who are "these people" anyway? And why would they have violent reactions to your opinions?


dinaren

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Reply #12 on: Dec 14, 2010, 03:51 PM
Maybe they're thinking that you have "hidden agenda" or something.

As for me naman i dont have any problems with your observations. I see it as factual naman and we dont have the right to blame you in case things dont come our way b/c we dont pay you a dime. But there will always be cynics out there so take it as it is. It comes with the territory.


TSO

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Reply #13 on: Dec 14, 2010, 04:38 PM
Hey cliff,

Since you're pretty much a VI now, I'd like to read what you think of LOTO (Pacific Online Systems Corp.). ^___^ I think it's a good business, just that it's overpriced at the moment and needs some kind of catalyst to bring the price down (hopefully something technical XP). I haven't done any in-depth analysis though, just basic screening materials and no deep dives into the annual reports and stuff... not yet at least.

It'll be damn good to see what another VI aside from TP would think about this. :P 
« Last Edit: Dec 14, 2010, 04:46 PM by TSO »


rds

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Reply #14 on: Dec 14, 2010, 04:48 PM
sure, just mention a stock here or in my blog

OK...teka SLI at ORE lang kasi ang na mention mo.

Kung may idea ka lang o opinion mo sa mga stocks na to kasi i find their P/E ratio very less, their earnings per share is increasing, their earning per capital is around 10% or more (for 3 years).

1. ABA
2. CDC
3. COAT
4. EEI
5. HI
6. LAND
7. LPZ
8. MIH
9. PNX
10. SMC


 


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