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EUR / USD (EURUSD)

daworm · 340 · 61400

isko

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Hi there!

My Sell Limit has just been triggered for EURUSD H4 @ 1.35682.



Let's see what the market has to offer on this trade. :-)

Update:

It seems the trade is playing out fine for the EURUSD short. We are now 70 + pips from our entry. Let's see if price will hit our TP @ 1.33882 to give a good 4:1 RR ratio.

« Last Edit: Oct 15, 2013, 07:03 PM by isko »


hzardous

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hzardous

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hzardous

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hzardous

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MetisEtradePR

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The Pound has generally been stronger than the Euro for over a year. Since the UK economy has been recovering faster than the Euro-zone economy, there is a possibility for this trend to continue on speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest-rates from its record-low on this Thursday’s Rate Statement.


MetisEtradePR

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Price movement this week is presenting another opportunity for trading within the CHFJPY triangle as the price approaches resistance at 115.150. Shorting near this ceiling is recommended with profit taking level near support at 113.251. For conservative traders, waiting for a rebound after a test of resistance is suggested.


MetisEtradePR

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Support and Resistance Level

Some room for continued bearishness in the euro dollar is still possible after the currency’s dip for 3 straight months. It is expected that a short-term correction will occur, testing immediate resistance at 1.29610. A short after a bounce from this resistance is recommended, with take profit near support at 1.26735. Limiting exposure is suggested given the high expected volatility for the trade.




Trend Indicators

The period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart show the strong downtrend in the euro dollar as the slow SMA trends above the fast SMA. A resistance level formed by the 100 SMA is currently at 1.3018.




Oscillators

The relative strength index in the 4-hour chart suggests a potential short-term correction in EURUSD as the index is currently at 34.40 after recently bouncing from oversold conditions. The index will most likely test RSI level 50 before continuing the downward trend.


MetisEtradePR

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The demand for the US Dollar has generally been strong on bets that the Federal Reserve will implement an interest-rate hike before its peers on the basis that the US economy is recovering better than expected. Data regarding the US Final GDP for the second quarter of the year will be released later. The final data is projected to show that the US economy grew by 4.6% in the second quarter, better than the estimate released last August 28 at 4.2%.


MetisEtradePR

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Support and Resistance Level

Some room for continued bearishness in the euro dollar is still possible after the currency’s dip for 3 straight months. The short-term correction that tested 1.2790 is expected to continue up to resistance at 1.28149. A short after a bounce from this resistance is recommended, with take profit near support at 1.26621.

Trend Indicators

The period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart show the strong downtrend in the euro-dollar as the slow SMA trends above the fast SMA. A resistance level formed by the 200 SMA is currently at 1.28366, while support from the 100 SMA is at 1.26924.

Oscillators

The relative strength index in the 4-hour chart shows there is still room for bullish movement on the euro in the short-run as the indicator recently crossed above pivot level 50. Index level 70 would most likely be tested before a reversal. The RSI is currently at 59.83.


MetisEtradePR

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In the last IMF meeting, the global growth forecast was lowered on the expectation of a risk in global slowdown. The risk was confirmed as a data release showed that China’s third quarter economic growth was at 7.3%, the weakest growth since 2006. As one of the biggest economies, the data release proves that there is a slack in the global growth. The speculation of a delay in an interest-rate hike will influence the US Dollar to weaken further especially if the release tomorrow shows a lower-than-expected inflation data.


MetisEtradePR

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Support and Resistance Level

EURUSD has generally been moving in a downtrend for over five months. There is a possibility for the currency pair to test the channel resistance at 1.27356 before the continuation of the trend. A sell limit position should be taken near the resistance level in order take advantage of the possible test. Profit-taking should be done near the support level at 1.24261.

Trend Indicators

The 50-day (red line) and 100-day (blue line) simple moving average (SMA) of EURUSD confirms that the currency pair has been moving in a downtrend from the time when the SMAs crossed last June. The 50-day SMA serves as a strong resistance level of the downtrend at 1.27356 implying that a breakout of this price level will be difficult.

Oscillators

The relative strength index (RSI) of the EURUSD four-hour chart reveals that the currency pair is currently at 35.33 RSI indicating a near-oversold level. This proves that there is room for the currency pair to recover from being oversold before a continuation of the trend. EURUSD will continue its downtrend provided that RSI levels are between 60 and 20.


MetisEtradePR

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September’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.9% from August’s 6.1% causing the US Dollar to appreciate across the board. Today’s employment release is expected to reveal positive results. Last Wednesday, ADP private payrolls report revealed better-than-projected figures with 230 thousand additional employed people. This influenced expectations that today’s official Non-Farm Payroll report would beat the forecasted 235,000 additional jobs for the month of October. US October unemployment rate is expected to maintain the previous month’s six-year-low at 5.9%. The improvement employment of the US economy strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates soon. This should be taken advantage of by buying the US Dollar.


MetisEtradePR

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The minutes of RBA’s monetary policy meeting last November 4 was recently released. The minutes provided insights into the economic conditions that influenced their interest rate decision. Although the economy is growing moderately, there is expectation that economic growth will continue to be below average in 2014 and 2015. The RBA decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.50% in order to support growth in the Australian economy especially in further expansion of iron ore production. The slowdown in China’s steel production puts downward pressure on prices of iron ore. Especially considering that commodity prices have been noticeably declining, the RBA noted that the overvalued Aussie makes it less easy to achieve balanced growth in the economy.


MetisEtradePR

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US GDP growth for the third quarter was revised to 3.3% from 3.5%. The second release of the GDP data was revised lower on less-than-projected export figures for the month of September. The trade gap for the month of September was reported to have increased by 7.6% to 43.03 Billion Dollars due to lower global demand for US exports. The shortfall trimmed the revised economic growth by 0.3 points. Given that the global slowdown is already taken into account by the market, the revision should not have much impact on the market. Additionally, domestic demand is expected to drive economic activity in the fourth quarter given the higher purchasing power of consumers brought about by lower energy costs. There remains a positive outlook on the US economy.


 


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