Author Topic: San Miguel Woes - investors beware  (Read 20077 times)

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bauer

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San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« on: Feb 18, 2009, 12:06 PM »
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I have serious concerns about the management performance of san miguel since 2007 because i believe it needs to be addressed due to serious signs that might lead to bankruptcy of one of the Philippine ICONS.  In retrospects, i will make a summary of past events as can be gleaned from old threads.

1. SMC sold their stake in national foods of australia to kirin.
2. SMC sold their stake in J.Boag (beer company in australia)
3. SMC sold their stake of the Enterprise Center to Kuok Group
4. SMC closed their beer plant in hong kong
5. SMC sold their stake in Coke Phils

Big stake owners suddenly sell their big shares,

GSIS sold their shares of SMC to SMC retirement fund of employees
Danding sold their shares of SMC to the same fund
Henry Sy sold ALL his shares of SMC to the same fund

Note: did the employees know that they are now the largest owner of SMC but does not have control of the BOARD?

did the employees know that they bought the shares from Danding, GSIS, Henry Sy at almost 2x the prevailing market price?

Right now, SMC (mother) spin off the SMB (child).  Why? get some more money through public listing.  Then, after spin off with SMB, kirin increased its stake in SMB to less than 50% of total shares.  SMC (mother) was paid off by kirin.  Now, SMC (mother) wanted to sell to the child (SMB) about 38 billion pesos of "assets" mostly the brand name of San Miguel through a combination of loans (corpo bonds and bank loans).  So SMB will have a big debt to carry while the mother (SMC) will use the money.

Who will be the assh*les to suffer if the mother (SMC) is successful in getting the money from the cash machine (SMB-child)?  KIRIN and the Filipino investors (not to mention the employees and the government itself).

Then, if ever SMC receive the clean cash of 38 billion on top of other cash daw they have after selling their stakes in other companies, SMC will invest in Meralco, Petron, Liberty telecom, Kuok Group, etc.

If so, supposedly there are no problems because selling their stake in existing cash machines and then investing the proceeds to other business that they dont have "experience" will lead to more prosperity right?  I think this premise is wrong, how can a cook who are experts in beer suddenly change jobs and become an expert in utilities? (power, gas, water).

If SMC (mother) has big cash hoard, why do they buy petron at an optional basis? meaning, we have to wait for 2 years to know if SMC will really own petron or not.

Then because Boss danding and gloria are friends, SMC was able to buy the government shares in Meralco by installment spanning several years!  Any big tycoons can do that anytime but due to "special arrangement", they can't, only SMC - danding

Now the big question, WHERE"S ALL THE CASH NOW?  HOW COME SMC EMPLOYEES ARE NOT IN CONTROL OF THE BOARD?

Possible future scenario, SMC will go broke if Danding's bet for Philippine President fails!

Who has the money? Danding, GSIS, Henry Sy, especially Ramon ANG

Who will suffer? KIRIN, Filipino investors in SMC-SMB, Government (Public again!), and the RETIREMENT of the San Miguel Employees!

When this scenario will happen? If nothing is done now (Danding & Ramon will still lead SMC), bankruptcy will take place within 2 years after the presidential election election in May 2010.

rumor mills going on now, B-MEG is for sale? watch out monterey, you will be next!

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ribbit

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #1 on: Feb 18, 2009, 06:33 PM »
thanks for the heads up, bauer.
"Beer: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems." - Homer Simpson

AMARANTH

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #2 on: Feb 18, 2009, 11:04 PM »
Are they expecting a massive slowdown on consumer goods in this crisis with an assessment that power and oil won't go out of style.....I remembered an article wrote by boo chanco that if his conspiracy theory is correct gloria and her band of thieves plans to still live like kings after she steps down.....if you can find the article it said somethings about controlling major utility comapnies by conspiring with tycoons like danding and having chez escudero who is pretending to be an opposition to run for president, it even talks about putting cheaters to rig control of the elections for him to win....

bauer

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #3 on: Feb 19, 2009, 12:31 PM »
amaranth,

what you read in some article is a good theory that may happen if their plans will take place.  Actually there's nothing wrong with business moves to take several business interest in different industries.  All of us wanted to become rich.  But it is immoral and unfair to use government resources and public funds to ammassed private wealth.

It looks like everytime SMC wanted to take money from investors there's a lot of media hype about their expansion plans.  Just check what they are really doing not what they are talking.

yesterday, gloria visited the SMC office to show the public a false premise of success.  Ni wala ngang budget ang SMC to repair the present head office of SMC, marami ng ceiling na sira.  tapos si ramon ang ang daming collection ng mga magagarang kotse.  Yung management yumayaman samantalang yung mag retire na empleyado sa future eh baka walang makuha kundi bote ng beer.
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GoodSteward

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #4 on: Feb 19, 2009, 09:25 PM »
Any SMC employees or workers who would like to comment on sir bauer's statement above?

frankob

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #5 on: Feb 19, 2009, 09:56 PM »
calling smc employees and insiders, please share your thoughts. speak now or be silenced forever...

quickbang

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #6 on: Feb 20, 2009, 02:25 AM »
Hmmm... Nice topic!

I suddenly applied my brakes regarding my possible investment with SMB Bonds to be offered this March.

I have previously asked in the corporate bonds thread why many companies are in dire need of money this year by offering corporate bonds.

Anyone can confirm or dispute what bauer has stated?

bauer

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #7 on: Feb 20, 2009, 12:57 PM »
quickbang,

many companies are rushing to issue corpo bonds because of the following reasons:

1. the banks is keeping the cash for themselves specially international banks.
2. there is a shortage of lenders that will accept business loans at low interest rates.
3. the stock market is depressed so companies cannot sell additional shares at a good price.
4. companies needed cash to pay their debts that will mature this year.
5. companies needed cash to continue their business operation.

So, any company that plans to issue corpo bonds or notes to the public, just take a look at the reasons above.  Be careful if you found out if corpo bonds are needed due to reason no. 4 and 5.

Be careful with your investment now.  Many companies want to get it to save their ass!
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kzap

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #8 on: Feb 20, 2009, 01:28 PM »
so aside from all the corruption, is it not a good idea, they are saving themselves, so we might as well go along for the ride with them?
or is it better to invest in what they are all investing in, petron, meralco, utilities, instead of the investing in their corporate vehicle smb.
in these times of large government debts arent corporate bond risks more spread out
they are lessening their risk by doing all this and separating SMC and SMB, what will gurantee SMB?
« Last Edit: Feb 20, 2009, 01:31 PM by kzap »

richpulubi

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #9 on: Feb 20, 2009, 03:01 PM »
Hey, you guys can scare yourselves silly about investing in bonds I've been doing it for years, through similar financial crises.  I have bonds and tier 2's coming due that I bought at 12% interest rate. Imagine the economic situation when I bought them then?

The key to buying bonds is to buy from a company that you think will survive its tenure.

SMC and SMB are undergoing major changes.  But, irregardless, they will still survive beyond five, even ten years.  

If you guys are afraid to buy corporate bonds, hey, more for me to buy!

beast_master

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #10 on: Feb 20, 2009, 03:26 PM »

Hey, you guys can scare yourselves silly about investing in bonds I've been doing it for years, through similar financial crises.  I have bonds and tier 2's coming due that I bought at 12% interest rate. Imagine the economic situation when I bought them then?

The key to buying bonds is to buy from a company that you think will survive its tenure.

SMC and SMB are undergoing major changes.  But, irregardless, they will still survive beyond five, even ten years.  

If you guys are afraid to buy corporate bonds, hey, more for me to buy!


I agree partially.  Isn't it that in every downturn, bonds become more attractive than stocks because of the very nature of the crisis-instability?  Investors want something secure that stocks can't readily provide.  However, there are certain things that you need to consider when buying bonds.  Not all bonds are created equal.

bauer

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #11 on: Feb 20, 2009, 06:13 PM »
yes sirs its true that not all bonds are created equal.  

we have different kind of bonds, among which are as follows:

1. Tier 1 and Tier 2 bonds are issued by banks only.  So it has relative stability but is not guaranteed by PDIC.  These bonds require the approval of the central bank.

2. government bonds are issued by government owned or controlled corporation. so these bonds usually carry an unconditional guarantee of the state.  more safe than no.1

3. corporate bonds are issued by publicly listed corporations.  these bonds are guranteed by the company unless the company declares bankruptcy, insolvency or rehabilitation.  Bonds require an approval by the SEC but the SEC does not usually monitor how it is use.  Corpo bonds are the riskiest compared to no.1 and no.2

Take your pick.  As an advise, why get a corpo bond with an interest rate that is about the same with the banks' tier 1 and 2 bonds?  better get the banks' bonds in this case. less risk, less worry, same income!
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quickbang

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #12 on: Feb 20, 2009, 06:18 PM »
Quote
As an advise, why get a corpo bond with an interest rate that is about the same with the banks' tier 1 and 2 bonds?  better get the banks' bonds in this case. less risk, less worry, same income!


Thanks for the info. Any news of any banks offering tier 1 & 2 in the coming months?

AMARANTH

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #13 on: Feb 20, 2009, 06:55 PM »
During the 1997 crisis there were several big companies that defaulted on their corporate bonds. One company comes into mind is CAMELA HOME PROPERTIES ( now renamed as VISTA PROPERTIES in PSE) owned by MANNY VILLAR.  

My uncle was one of them who bought their bonds at citibank.  He didn't read the fine print nor would understand the "NO RECOURSE" clause by the bank even if he read it.  To make the story short, camela company representatives proposed to my uncle that the only way he will be repaid is thru agreeing to exchange the money owed by them with their (overpriced) townhouses.  The funny thing was my uncle who had 5 million worth of bonds couln'nt find a townhouse worth exactly the same, if he choose anything lower he won't be refunded with the difference if its higher then he has to pay the additional difference.  JEEEEZ galit na nga na naipit yung pera tapos dadagdag pa.....in the end he had no choice but pay an additional 500,000.

I didn't tell this story to scare people in investing smb bonds, just relating to you true expieriences.  I don't know what happened to other companies that defaulted if investors were even able to get anything back.

still if you believe the company will be able to survive the crisis then you must go ahead.

markus

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Re: San Miguel Woes - investors beware
« Reply #14 on: Feb 20, 2009, 09:32 PM »
wow nice thread here  :applause: mag iinvest sana ako sa SMC buti nalang nabasa ko tong thread na to  :thankyou: people
Act! Expedite!

 


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