Oops, Trillanes did it again

Update (7:30 p.m.): The show is now over. The standoff has ended with Sen. Trillanes and the rest of his cohorts arrested and sent back to jail. Better luck next time, Senator.

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Update (3:00 p.m.): Thirty soldiers led by elected Senator Antonio Trillanes IV walked out today of a Makati court and holed themselves up at a hotel in Makati, the Philippines’ central business district.

The scene is reminiscent of the Oakwood saga in 2003 where more than 300 soldiers also led by Trillanes took over the Oakwood Hotel demanding the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA), except this time the hotel setting is The Manila Peninsula.

The 2003 mutiny ended unsuccessfully after it failed to rally support from the public and the Armed Forces. Will Trillanes be successful this time around?

I think the odds are still stacked against him. The walkout comes at definitely a less-than-expected time: the Philippine peso is surging against the dollar, the stock market is rallying, and OFW remittances are flowing in at all-time high. How can you convince the majority of Filipinos to join in destabilizing the government if the economy is on an upswing?

Oh, and the date was just plain wrong. Tomorrow’s a non-working holiday and a lot of people have already made plans. Rising up against the government surely was not one of them. Earlier today, people just wanted to unwind and go home — not be stuck in Ayala because of this Oakwood Mutiny Part 2.

Besides, the “critical mass” — the middle class believed to be the moving force that can overthrow a President (as in the case of former Philippine leaders Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada) — has neither been seen nor formed in recent years. Who then is to support the Magdalo soldiers in their crusade against GMA? The old faces? But wait, even pardoned ex-President Estrada is not joining the call. Tough luck.

So there, I think Trillanes’s charade is again bound to fail. Right fight, wrong move.

Better luck next time, Mr. Senator. The third time might be a charm.

Join the discussion of this event in the Makati Rally headed by Trillanes on going! They want Gloria down! thread in the PMT Forum.