2012 Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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UPDATED: Check out the latest Peso-Dollar Exchange rate and other currency exchange rates here: Peso Exchange Rate vs. USD, AED, HKD, SGD, KWD, QAR, SAR, GBP, EURO, JPY

What would the Peso-Dollar exchange rate be by the end of the year?

If we only knew the answer, no doubt that we would be very, very rich. Imagine being able to accurately hedge currencies. Or to know the correct timing to convert US Dollars to Philippine Peso. Or to be able to invest all your money in the currency that would rise in value. Whew, if we only knew.

We looked at some exchange rate predictions issued by top investment analysts in the country that we can use as guide.

Last week, the Peso closed at P41.93 versus the US Dollar. That’s a 4.5% appreciation from the start of the year, still making the Peso one of the best performing currencies in Asia in terms of appreciation compared to the Dollar.

What about the exchange rate forecasts by the end of the year?

We checked Bloomberg and the analysts’ consensus as of July 2012 is that the Peso will slightly depreciate to P42.20 by the end of the year.

Of course, there are extremes in the forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. One analyst, BNP Paribas, predicts the Peso to further strengthen to P40.00. In contrast, Lloyds Banking Group expects the Peso to weaken to P45.50 versus the greenback by year-end.

Other analysts’ forecasts from Bloomberg are summarized below.

[TABLE=153]

Who do we trust? That’s your judgment call.

FYI, last year we made this same post about the analysts’ forecast of the exchange rate by the end of 2011. It appeared most of the predictions in July 2011 were off, with almost all brokers expecting the Peso to strengthen to the P41.00-P42.00 range. Actually in December 2011, the peso-dollar exchange rate averaged P43.64.

Well, a forecast is really just an “informed opinion.” And sometimes opinions may be right or wrong. So our warning: take the’ forecasts above with a grain of salt.

Better yet, give us your own forecast on the Peso-Dollar exchange rate by December 2012. Do you think the peso will appreciate or depreciate versus the dollar? Post your exchange rate forecasts below.

About the Author

James Ryan Jonas teaches business strategy, investments, and entrepreneurship at the University of the Philippines (UP). He is also the Executive Director of UP Provident Fund Inc., managing and investing P3.1 Billion ($56 Million) worth of retirement funds on behalf of thousands of UP employees.

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12 thoughts on “2012 Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast”

  2. I trust that the BSP will keep the exchange rate between Php 41-43, for the sake of remittances and the exporters. Let’s face it, I don’t know how this could still be a secret to some, but our currency is pegged to the USD, even if the CB tells the market that it is “free floating”.

    Reply

  3. My opinion is that the peso dollar exchange rate will be P41.50 by December 2012. OFW remittances during Christmas time will help strengthen the value of the peso.

    Reply

  5. it will be around 40, because we do not know how to use our money except to import consumer goods. Local production is low and market is dying. China is taking all the money in the world!

    Reply

  6. I’m an OFW in Dubai and sayang yung pinapadala ko pag bumababa ang exchange rate. I hope the exchange rate goes up to P50 again para mas maraming peso macoconvert yung dollars na pinapadala ko…

    Reply

    • OFW din ako pero hindi maganda sa bansa natin kung ang rate ng dollar ay maging P50 ulit. tataas din kasi ang mga presyu niyan sa atin.

      Reply

  7. It should be P41.50 by year end because the US is having problems and people will dump the dollar for other currencies such as the Peso.

    Reply

  10. I’m an OFW. just received notice today from my bank that the interest rate of my housing loan is now 8.5% from original of 11% and repriced last March 2011 at 9.75%. Now ko na realized na gumaganda nga ang economy ng Pinas dahil bumaba ang interest rate. Sana pati credit card interest rates bumaba na din.

    Reply

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