Job recovery may take at least 7 years

Saw an interesting but frightening news article at the Asian Wall Street Journal the other day. I had the printed version but I can’t find the online version of the article so I’ll just explain it here.

Basically, the Asian Wall Street Journal is saying that based on their research, it might take at least seven (7) years before job losses due to the economic recession will recover. This is based on the experience of the global economy in past recessions.

The research identified the “Duration” or the time it took jobs lost during the recession to return to its pre-recession level. “Peak job loss” is the estimated maximum number of jobs lost during the recession.

The scary results:

January – July 1980 recession

  • Peak Job Loss: 0.97 million jobs
  • Duration: 10 months
  • One year after this recession ended and eight months after jobs returned to their prerecession level, another recession started

July 1981 – November 1982

  • Peak Job Loss: 2.84 M jobs
  • Duration: 27 months
  • Two years and three months went by before the pre-recession job level was reached

July 1990 – March 1991

  • Peak Job Loss: 1.58 M jobs
  • Duration: 30 months
  • The recession was short but the job level was not restored until two and a half years after the recession began

March 2001 – November 2001

  • Peak Job Loss: 2.68 M jobs
  • Duration: 46 months
  • Recession lasted for only 8 months but it took nearly four years before jobs returned to their pre-recession level

December 2007 –

  • Peak Job Loss: 8.42 M jobs
  • Duration: 25 months and counting
  • According to the Wall Street Journal, it would take more than seven (7) years to regain the level of employment at the start of recession if jobs returned at the average rate at which they have been added in the previous expansion

In 2001, more than 2.68 million jobs were lost and it took almost four years before the job level returned to its pre-recession state.

What’s frightening is that in the most recent recession, job losses are more than four times as in 2001, which is why the Wall Street Journal predicts it would take at least 7 years before jobs will return to its level prior to the 2007 recession.

Pretty scary info, especially to those who have lost their jobs and who are still looking to find a new one.

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8 thoughts on “Job recovery may take at least 7 years”

  1. My dream retirement is living on a 45ft center cockpit Hunter sailboat with my man and dog sailing the inter coastal waterways, the Caribbean, and any port I choose.

  2. I think it is indeed scary thought for some people knowing that it will take longer to go back to where it used to be.

    But for those who’ve always wanted to go out and make it on their own outside the normal employment now is the perfect time to do so. If someone asks you why you are trying to start a business, you can always say, you’re finding it hard to look for a job because of the recession. Even if in reality, all you really wanted is make a life outside of a normal job-doing your own thing by starting your business or doing what you love.

    Notice that a lot of businesses last year were issuing bonds, borrowing money because of low interest rates. While employees worry about losing jobs, companies are busily taking advantage of the lower interest rates and leveraging the interest rates to buy more money at a cheaper price.

    Besides, statistics can mean different things. Is it taking long to have a job back because there are really no jobs…or is it that more people are tired and frustrated with their old job, they don’t want to go back anymore…

    Perhaps people are more willing to explore other ways to make a living. The goal is to be happy doing what you love, build a business around it to serve other people and make money in return.

  3. 7 years?

    Now govt. should strenghen campaign towards entrepreneurship and their support with schools offering such.

    Imagine the # of graduates each year for the next 7 years who can’t find a job. Such a burden to the country.

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