Author Topic: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis  (Read 10689 times)

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SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #75 on: Aug 22, 2017, 12:21 AM »
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AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

We have a bearish reversal underway or possibly a buying opportunity.

The AUD/JPY currency pair sold off heavily this month following the retesting of the new area of resistance between 89.00 and 89.30 which we referred to in our last report about the pair. Last week the pair made a top smaller than the previous one, which means we are in a downside wave. We have to be careful because we recognized a bottom higher than the previous one, so that we have two trend lines - one for the uptrend and a second one for the downtrend.

The pair has a support area at 85.70-85.90. The prices reached it last week, so we can expect an upside movement this week, in addition to the pair reaching the 50% from the rising wave from 81.65 to 89.29. We can predict the pair will begin another series of impulse waves.

The Next Few Days

After we analyzed the chart well we can discover that we would work on the breaking out of the pair. If the AUD/JPY breaks the downtrend we will buy the pair and keep our targets at 88.20 and 89.05. Conversely, if it breaks the uptrend we will sell the pair and keep the target at 84.62 (61.8% Fibonacci). Still, we predict the pair will break the downtrend and rise again, so we can take buy positions now with a small lot at the current level 86.15 and keep the T/P level at 86.85, then wait for the breaking out.

This week the markets don’t offer any hot news from Australia or Japan but you have to be careful about any uncalendared news that can change the market direction.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #76 on: Aug 23, 2017, 09:55 PM »
NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #77 on: Aug 29, 2017, 11:48 PM »
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

The EUR/JPY is at a crossroads after the channel breaking.

This month the euro has moved against the Japanese Yen within around 370 pips. Although the prices broke the price channel down, the pair didn’t decline a lot this month and it returned back to trade now at 130.75 around this month’s opening price. In our last report we recommended to buy the pair around 130.73 and the pair is back now to the same levels - it didn’t hit our target, so we can close our previous order now and think about another opportunity.

The EUR/JPY pair broke the channel down and retested it, and the sell signal is still valid. Although it rose to test the key resistance level 131.38, we can keep our negative vision for the pair; that is in case it is still trade below the resistance level. We can wait for the Stochastic indicator at 96 level to cross over to sell the pair.

The Next Few Days

Based on this simple analysis of the pair after breaking the channel we would wait for a sell opportunity. Once the prices break the moving average down we would sell the pair, perhaps around 129.40. We would keep our first target at 126.24 and the second one at 122.35, that is in case the pair is still trading below the resistance level 131.38.

This week the market does not offer much in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan but we have to be careful about the American employment change and the jobs report on Friday.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #78 on: Sep 04, 2017, 11:59 PM »
The Dollar Moving Down

Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.

The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.

Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.

After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #79 on: Sep 06, 2017, 11:51 PM »
USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.

The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.


Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.

At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.

At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #80 on: Sep 07, 2017, 11:39 PM »
NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis

We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.

Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.

For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.

Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.

In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.

Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.


SuperForex

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Re: Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #81 on: Sep 11, 2017, 11:48 PM »
GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double  bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

The Next Few Days

From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.


SuperForex

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Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #82 on: Sep 13, 2017, 12:07 AM »
What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"
The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.
Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now it’s time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.
We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.
On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.
At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.



SuperForex

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AUD / CAD technical analysis
« Reply #83 on: Sep 13, 2017, 10:44 PM »
At the moment, the pair is trading in a downtrend and is between 23.6 and 0.00 Fibo levels with a daily chart.
[/size]Since recently some reliable enough data came from Canada, we see further strengthening of the Canadian currency.The indices of RSI and Stochastic also confirm the downward movement after a small correction of 75 points.At the moment, the pair is also under our Moving Average with a period of 28 and tends to a resistance level lying at 0.00 Fibo level (0.9655).Tomorrow a number of important news will be released in Australia, at 2:15 (GMT +3) the speach of the Deputy Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Debbel will take place, and at 4.30 (GMT +3) the changes in the level of employment for August will be published. This may slightly increase the volatility of our pair at the time of the news release.By day trading, we are now seeing a downward movement, so there is an opportunity to take short positions. With take-profit and stop loss at the levels of 0.0 and 23.6 by Fibo, respectively. We also have a twice tested resistance level of 0.9690, on which it is also possible to fix profits and look for further fluctuations of the pair.The intersection of our gliding (28) body with a candle and the subsequent fastening of the next candle by the body will highlight a possible reversal.Support and resistance levels:0.9655, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9805, 0.9870, 0.9900, 09975, 1.0050

SuperForex

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USD / CHF technical analysis
« Reply #84 on: Sep 14, 2017, 11:05 PM »
At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 - 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.
[/size]Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775


SuperForex

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SuperForex - Company News and Analysis
« Reply #85 on: Sep 15, 2017, 08:50 PM »
A new wave of tension
North Korea conducted a nuclear test again
This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into "ash and darkness" and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.
This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.
This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.
The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.
The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday's sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.


SuperForex

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GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out
« Reply #86 on: Sep 18, 2017, 09:45 PM »
The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.
[/color]The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.[/size]
[/color]The Next Few Days[/size]
[/color]After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.[/size]
[/color]Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.[/size]


SuperForex

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate
« Reply #87 on: Sep 19, 2017, 09:25 PM »
The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.
[/color]The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so  prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.[/size]
[/color]The Next Few Days[/size]
[/color]The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.[/size]
[/color]This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.[/size]


SuperForex

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CAD / JPY technical analysis
« Reply #88 on: Sep 20, 2017, 08:39 PM »
At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
[/size]Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of ​​88.90.But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.Support and resistance levels87.7288.3588.8989.5090.1090.90


SuperForex

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GBP/EUR Technical analysis
« Reply #89 on: Sep 21, 2017, 10:03 PM »
The pair is moving within a downward trend.
[/size]At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.[/color]Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.[/size][/color]Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.[/size][/color]Support and resistance levels:[/size][/color]0.8880[/size][/color]0.8825[/size][/color]0.8780[/size][/color]0.8715[/size]


 


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