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CAD / JPY (CADJPY)

MetisEtradePR · 10 · 2775

MetisEtradePR

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on: Aug 29, 2014, 05:01 PM


Combining this with the weakness of the Yen, a buy stop should be taken advantage especially if Canada has positive GDP growth


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #1 on: Sep 04, 2014, 06:23 PM


The relative strength index (RSI) of the four-hour chart reveals that CADJPY is currently at 55.41 RSI level indicating that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #2 on: Sep 10, 2014, 05:20 PM


Last Friday, Canada’s employment data was released. The economy was reported to have lost 11 thousand jobs last August, significantly worse than the expected 10,300 additional jobs. This confirms bets that the Bank of Canada will not raise interest rates soon. Last week, the central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged in order to support the trade balance of the economy.


Dogberto

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Reply #3 on: Sep 14, 2014, 11:13 PM
"Will the Loonie Start to Fall?"
http://www.metisetrade.com/research/report_data/Fundamental/52034
As of Sept.12, the above trade still did not hit its entry point.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #4 on: Oct 07, 2014, 06:38 PM


Given Japan’s low inflation, the BOJ is pressured to add stimulus in order to move closer to the 2% inflation target. Despite this pressure, the BOJ decided to keep monetary policy unchanged on their most recent monetary policy statement. The central bank will maintain increasing their monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen. Forecasts for adding stimulus were pushed back due to the risks posed by the Yen weakness. The BOJ will be reluctant to implement further monetary easing soon as the weakness of the Yen will possibly have negative impacts on consumers and small businesses, implying that the Yen weakness will put the Japanese economy at risk of recession.

A buy limit position in CADJPY is recommended.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #5 on: Oct 30, 2014, 06:12 PM


Support and Resistance Level

The uptrend channel in CADJPY remains intact after recovering from the short dip at the start of the week. A test of support at 96.475 could provide a buying opportunity for an intraday trade. Profit-taking could be done as the price approaches immediate resistance at 97.742.

Trend Indicators

The period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages support the upward trend in CADJPY as the fast moving average overlapped the slow moving average last week. Immediate support from the 100 SMA is at 96.422, while secondary support from the 200 SMA could be found at 95.817.

Oscillators

The relative strength index on the 4-hour chart at 76.05 indicates the currency is now overbought. This suggests strong potential for a reversal, testing index level 50, before a continuation of the loonie’s bullish movement. Buying after a bounce from pivot level 50 is recommended.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #6 on: Oct 31, 2014, 06:24 PM


In their monetary policy statement, the Bank of Japan announced their decision to expand monetary easing in order to prevent further risk of the downside inflation pressure. The BOJ expanded their monetary base to 80 trillion yen from 60-70 trillion yen. Although the BOJ has been saying that it will act without hesitation when the time calls for it, the decision to ease further had been unexpected. The central bank stated that they will continue their monetary easing program until they hit the 2.0% inflation target. Japan’s inflation has been low following April’s sales tax increase and falling oil prices.  Inflation for the month of September was reported to be at 3.2%.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #7 on: Nov 10, 2014, 05:40 PM


The market has not been expecting this positive data considering the weakness in foreign demand and the drop in oil prices. For the month of September, Canada added 74,100 jobs pushing unemployment to the lowest since December 2008 at 6.8%. On average, unemployment rate in Canada is at 7.74% from 1966 to 2014. The latest jobs data confirms that the employment sector of the Canadian economy is moderately improving.

A sell stop in CADJPY should be taken in order to take advantage of the positive implications the employment data has on the Canadian economy.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #8 on: Dec 23, 2014, 05:14 PM


Given that Canada is a main exporter of oil, the sharp decline in oil prices this year has a huge impact on the Canadian economy. Despite this, Canada’s GDP growth for the month of October is forecasted to reveal that the Canadian economy expanded by 0.1% from the previous month. Economic growth in the previous month was strong at 0.4%. Although the November forecasted figure is lower than the previous month’s 0.4% growth, the positive growth shows that the Canadian economy is still recovering despite the fall in oil prices. A positive GDP growth data will possibly push the Loonie to appreciate.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #9 on: Jan 05, 2015, 06:12 PM


Support and Resistance Level

CADJPY has been moving in an uptrend for the past four months. This uptrend is expected to continue, therefore, a buy position should be taken advantage of at the retest of the channel support level at 100.971.Profit-taking should be done before the 102.887 resistance level is reached.

Trend Indicators

The 10-day (red line), 20-day (blue line) and 100-day (orange line) simple moving average of CADJPY confirms that the currency pair has been moving in an uptrend given that the shorter-term SMAs are above the long-term SMA. The 100-day SMA can serve as a strong support level of this uptrend.

Oscillators

The relative strength index (RSI) level of the four-hour chart reveals that the currency pair is nearly oversold at 30.94. Given that the RSI level is below, 40.0, the currency pair will temporarily go down first before continuing its uptrend. Therefore, a buy limit is more advisable.


 


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