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leroy.fodor · 11 · 2490

leroy.fodor

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on: May 09, 2014, 03:34 PM
Hello Fellow traders. Allow me to introduce myself.

 I was hoping to join a few forums to find other traders in the Philippines. It is nice to see a community of traders here in the Philippines. I hope I can help people in any way that I can.

My favored trades are usually commodities, specifically gold and silver. I will dwindle into other currencies if the news supports a tradable position there. But I spend most of my time researching and investing in the gold and silver market.

I am not a long term trader, I rarely keep trades overnight. I guess I am a perfect example of a scalper. I like fast trades and look for trading opportunities all day. I trade all 3 big sessions. I would not say that I am either fundamental nor technical, however I will use some of that information to make my trades.

What make me trade the way i do:

I guess I have found this industry to be very intriguing. I have a hard time dealing with the results from technical and fundamental analysis. In actuality fundamental and technical analysis are just over educated hypothesis. Why they work is because everyone uses them, not because the methods are a tell tale educated trading position. They are guesses based on historical data and over time trend movements. Why this would normally be a failed  strategy is because you can not base a currency trade today on what happened last week last month or last year. The reports may not be the same, the industries of exports and imports change every 4 months to a year. Meaning what a country imports and exports this year will possibly change by next year.  Because you honestly can't know what is going to happen today to that currency that was different from its past history. The power behind these analysis and what moves the market in that direction is not the research, not the actual changes impacting the market but more so all of the people following and executing based on all these analysis. Thats the real power behind these analysis. As I read them and watch them, rarely can anyone say, with absolute certainty, from their research on either type that you can enter exactly here, and exit here and you are guaranteed this much profit. I also find the support and resistance levels are so out of balance and spread apart, minimal gains could be made using them, but as I watch these analysis and watch the market, very few hit anywhere near the exact support and resistance levels analyzed. They do come very close and in between but never exact. Unfortunately this lowers our profitability.

In my strategy I absolutely use the information in these analysis HOWEVER not to tell me where to trade but more so to tell me where you will be trading. I use tools that help me see the current market conditions to aid in my entries and exits and the rest....well its just guessing. Trading forex is a lot like going to a casino, you can use fundamentals and technicals all you want, but at the end of the day, when you drop that cash on the table, its still just another gamble. The ones who know whats going on (central banks, commodities exchanges, investment banks) those are the ones raking in the cash daily. And they are watching everything we do. With the internet their jobs have been made so much more simple. 20 to 30 years ago, the banks had a hard time controlling markets, and pushing things, because of lack of information, today, they know everything they wished they could have known 30 years ago.

There are 2 things to make you SUPER successful and rich overnight in this industry, a lot of luck and the ability to ride the banks train all the way to profits. If you can tell what the banks are going to do, you can literally be rich overnight. the most powerful tool in this industry is not analysis it is information, knowing what a certain country is going to do and when they will execute it. The banks are, and have been, manipulating things on a daily basis, they all know what each other will be doing, and they ride each others train and swap profits daily. JP Morgan went 2 years without a single lost trade in gold. How can that be possible? Not 1 single lost trade in the XAU/USD. you can only do that with supply of information. Keep in mind their traders have quotas they have to make so many trades per week, so it is not like they only made 10 or 20 trades in 2 years, they make 10 to 20 trades a day. How would your portfolio look if you went 2 years without a single lost trade? So it is possible, if we have the right information.

Banks in London legally collude daily, then collude more with their own personal accounts, and then with friends. They move markets in the direction they want  when they want, and they already know where we are positioned, where our stops and take profits are, they have everything at their fingertips.

My strategy uses the fundamental and technical research, current positions and I spend a lot of time looking for ways to ride that bank train to profits. To get a way to know what they might do and why. Once we can figure that out a lot of traders will have beautiful portfolios and Forbes wont know who to put on their cover next.


vicces

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Reply #1 on: May 10, 2014, 03:11 PM

great post leroy... how are u trading commodities from here/PH, which broker are u using?

 looking forward to reading more from you, and if u can share your trade secrets, that would great too..


leroy.fodor

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Reply #2 on: May 10, 2014, 10:23 PM
great post leroy... how are u trading commodities from here/PH, which broker are u using?

 looking forward to reading more from you, and if u can share your trade secrets, that would great too..

We use Forex.com and Oanda. Both accounts using the MT4 platform. We is my wife and me.

I am attempting to set up a little forex group, as I set this up I am testing a new strategy. So far it has been quite successful. Unfortunately it only works on a few markets. Once I have a group large enough set up and we can all set up some times for meetings and gatherings. I hope that we can all plan on bringing our secrets to the table and help each other out.

Some of my biggest secrets I tell everyone, that I use right now, is watching the banks closely, catching up on monetary policies, reading up on imports and exports which tells you a lot about currency pairs. Use those fundamental studies and technical studies to your advantage. and dont go with the swing of things, be the swing. 90% of what we do is a guessing game, where do I enter, where do i exit, how long should I hold, Its in profits should I close now or wait. Second guessing yourself will usually have consequences, not taking the pips you should when you should will have consequences.  In this industry literally what you do and what you do not do can be the difference between huge profits and huge losses.


binsyo

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Reply #3 on: May 11, 2014, 12:03 AM
Hi sir @leroy.fodor  :welcome:... You seem to be knowledgeable in trading. I hope to hear more from you here.

I'm still currently demo trading forex and commodities via Oanda. Favorite ko rin magtrade ng gold (XAU/USD) since so far it has been my most profitable pair on my demo trades (I treat gold like forex :hihi:).

I hope you can share strategies, tips, news, or any information you'd like to share in this forum sir.  :hello:


leroy.fodor

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Reply #4 on: May 11, 2014, 11:13 AM
Hi sir @leroy.fodor  :welcome:... You seem to be knowledgeable in trading. I hope to hear more from you here.

I'm still currently demo trading forex and commodities via Oanda. Favorite ko rin magtrade ng gold (XAU/USD) since so far it has been my most profitable pair on my demo trades (I treat gold like forex :hihi:).

I hope you can share strategies, tips, news, or any information you'd like to share in this forum sir.  :hello:

Binsyo hello,

   As you practice what is the account size you practice with compared to what you will be investing when you go live. meaning how much money do you practice with, and when you are ready how much money will you actually be investing?

A lot of people ask the question "Can I really make this much money on a live account" I will answer this question like no one else ever did in my year of practicing and researching. Yes you can make the same amount of money, yes the practice account is exactly like the live account, HOWEVER you will not make money as quickly as you do on your demo accounts. Well why not you ask. Very simple a good trader understands risk analysis. And The risk factor is completely eliminated in a demo account. If you have the ability to trade with no worry of loss in mind on a live account you will make a lot of money just like your Demo account. But once you put your real money into that account your trading changes. You will watch your margins closer on hedged accounts, you will not use the High volume trades you use on a demo account. So things are going to seem very different, and profits will not come as quickly as you practiced.

Another thing please dont use 10,000 or 50,000 dollar accounts. This si going to greatly mislead you into thuge profits. For you to know exactly what you will be making in this industry use the amount youb plan on depositing. My wife and I use 1000 USD accounts so that is what I practiced with. this lets you know exactly the trading style you will have. Anyone and I do mean anyone can make a lot of money on a 50,000 or even 10,000 USD account. Heck I can take a 50,000 dollar account up to 200,000 in a week, a 10,000 dollar account up to 100,000 in a week. So don't tease yourself, use the amount you plan on investing.

Gold is a good market. A lot of investment firms will not use gold, like Edward Jones in America. I find this just ...well ... stupid. For a company who is supposed to make money on investments for other people, and take other peoples money and wager it on the market, to not use gold in their trading portfolio is very dumb. Gold is the absolute easiest market to trade across the board, and Silver 9.75 times out of 10 will follow suite. So if you trade gold you should also look into silver. Gold has very little information that impacts its market, mush less research than involved in trading a currency pair itself.

You are doing well with gold right now because of the problems in Ukraine, the Indian gold festival just ended and China is investing more in gold than they usually do. All of this together increases its repetitive volatility. Meaning its basically doing the same thing every day/month up to 1315 to 1320 down to 1260 to 1280. Very small margins for losses right now. The United States Commodities Exchange has tried a couple times this past month to force the price down. They are your enemy in the Gold market. they are stupid and do things that just do not go along with normal trading strategies. last month on April 29th at 8:27 AM they sold 500,000,000 dollars in gold contracts which dropped the price over 10 dollar. I am still trying to figure out why a Comodities exchange would want to force the price of gold down when the demand is so High. Normal economics and anyone with a brain in their head would want to drive the price up, demand is high so get more money for the gold right. but NOPE they keep trying to force it down for some reason.

I am looking for other traders who like trading Gold, Silver, Copper, and other metals/commodities. I am forming a group and these people must be from the Philippines. because if all works out well, Eventually, I would like to set up monthly gatherings after our sessions progress. Giving us time to relax and enjoy non working environments. I hope we can bring a lot to the table to be utilized by other traders here. Being new to the industry is ok, however you must have a live account in order to be considered. Demo account will not benefit this group in any way.


vicces

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Reply #5 on: May 11, 2014, 11:48 AM
Binsyo hello,

   As you practice what is the account size you practice with compared to what you will be investing when you go live. meaning how much money do you practice with, and when you are ready how much money will you actually be investing?

A lot of people ask the question "Can I really make this much money on a live account" I will answer this question like no one else ever did in my year of practicing and researching. Yes you can make the same amount of money, yes the practice account is exactly like the live account, HOWEVER you will not make money as quickly as you do on your demo accounts. Well why not you ask. Very simple a good trader understands risk analysis. And The risk factor is completely eliminated in a demo account. If you have the ability to trade with no worry of loss in mind on a live account you will make a lot of money just like your Demo account. But once you put your real money into that account your trading changes. You will watch your margins closer on hedged accounts, you will not use the High volume trades you use on a demo account. So things are going to seem very different, and profits will not come as quickly as you practiced.

Another thing please dont use 10,000 or 50,000 dollar accounts. This si going to greatly mislead you into thuge profits. For you to know exactly what you will be making in this industry use the amount youb plan on depositing. My wife and I use 1000 USD accounts so that is what I practiced with. this lets you know exactly the trading style you will have. Anyone and I do mean anyone can make a lot of money on a 50,000 or even 10,000 USD account. Heck I can take a 50,000 dollar account up to 200,000 in a week, a 10,000 dollar account up to 100,000 in a week. So don't tease yourself, use the amount you plan on investing.

AMEN!!! That's always been my beef with trading demo, no matter how long you've been practicing with it, it still is, just practicing. of course you go through that phase, for familiarization, but do not expect it will be the same with live trading, where real money is involved, where your true emotions/reactions will come out whether coz you're excited or dejected. and as you pointed out too, its much easier to grow your money in demo but which, really is, just an illusion. most demo accounts are in $10k or $50k, so to approximate a real account, i usually let the starting demo $10k lose until its down to $2k level (and man does it take too long to lose that much in demo! hahaha).  :D

I think many in this forum will now be interested in metal trading, now that you're here to share your insights and experiences, and your future plans (btw, a stocks trading group that is growing in membership, was hatched in this very same forum just over a yr ago). So keep posting, leroy. and here's to everyone's trading success!! :rakenrol:



leroy.fodor

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Reply #6 on: May 11, 2014, 12:19 PM
AMEN!!! That's always been my beef with trading demo, no matter how long you've been practicing with it, it still is, just practicing. of course you go through that phase, for familiarization, but do not expect it will be the same with live trading, where real money is involved, where your true emotions/reactions will come out whether coz you're excited or dejected. and as you pointed out too, its much easier to grow your money in demo but which, really is, just an illusion. most demo accounts are in $10k or $50k, so to approximate a real account, i usually let the starting demo $10k lose until its down to $2k level (and man does it take too long to lose that much in demo! hahaha).  :D

I think many in this forum will now be interested in metal trading, now that you're here to share your insights and experiences, and your future plans (btw, a stocks trading group that is growing in membership, was hatched in this very same forum just over a yr ago). So keep posting, leroy. and here's to everyone's trading success!! :rakenrol:

Mr Vicces you dont have to lose trades in the 10,000 dollar demo to get it to a lower amount, when you open a new MT4 demo account you can actually manually put in 1000 or even as low as 250 dollars as the starting amount. I used to do the exact same thing for the first 6 months i practiced then I realized I could manually change the value in the starting amount to whatever I wanted. this helps with the statement reports so you will not show HUGE losses in your final statement. It would be hard for a statistical data trader to know where he stands if his account begins with a 8000 to 9000 dollar amount of lost trades.

Something else I would like to add with Mr Vicces advice, he mentioned emotional trading, Please understand Unless you are JP Morgan with a folder full of information you will lose trades, heck you may even lose many constitutive trades. Do not be downed. there is a lot going on in a market and there are times when it just does not do as it is expected, or as it normally would. Like last month when COMEX sold 500 million in gold contracts, it dropped the price of gold at the weirdest time for no reason. A lot of day traders lost thier butt on that deal I promise you. A lost trade like that can really hammer on your emotions, and make you feel like you just cant do this.Combat this in a few ways.

First watch your margins, use risk analysis in all your trades. Do not over extend your trades. never keep more than 3 high volume trades open at a time. I usually have only 1. I trade only 10 percent of my margin, and this to many professional traders is very high risk to them. but they will have 20 trades on the table at a time, volumes of only 0.01 to 0.10 at a time. I have at most 3 trades open at 1 to 2 volumes each. what they don't realize is we both have the exact same risk except I will end up making more money per pip in gains. when that comex sell off hit last month I had a buy in Gold at that time, 4 actually (I broke my rule) 2 in silver and 2 in Gold, but because of my risk analysis I was able to take a week off trading and wait it out, I could not trade anything else for the rest of the week but I was able to hold onto those trades until the next week when they went into profits and never came close to my margin. So you have to watch your margins and limit how much of a risk you are taking in each trade. That way if somthing does turn for the worst you can just hopefully wait it out.


binsyo

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Reply #7 on: May 11, 2014, 03:11 PM
^^^ Yes, I agree. You can manually adjust your account balance when you open. I'm aware of the differences sir, that's why I'm maintaining 3 different demo accounts: $100 account, $1000 account, and $5000 account. I do this so I know what returns to expect.

I also learned na mahirap imanage yung risk and volume of trades kung kaunti lang ang account mo kasi more chance of overtrading.I trade with a 1:50 leverage on micro and mini lots which suits me well now. Right now, I've come to the point to treat profits and losses as percentages to my account and not as the actual dollar amount.

I'm also aware of the differences in emotions and feelings when winning and losing trades between demo and live... but I can never be prepared for that unless I put my feet on the water, right?

Sir @leroy.fodor, maybe you could start a thread on the forex board or gold/commodities board regarding news/fundamentals or technicals on Gold and metals trading. It would be of great help to us... tsaka para din naman maging lively ang boards doon.  :rakenrol:


leroy.fodor

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Reply #8 on: May 14, 2014, 03:22 PM
Mr. Binsyo, Unfortunately I am no analyst, I am just a regular trader like you. Unlike the wallstreet and big banker traders I have a conscience If I would dare post something that ended in another comrades failure in a trade I would feel absolutely horrible.

This market is closely watched by many powerful people, huge banks brokers and so forth. So when you post anything related to this market you surely do not want to make it public. This is why I wanted to form a more private group. In privacy we can talk about this process I have systematically came up with and so far it seems to be semi successful. Is this process full proof, NO is it perfect, not by far. But to be honest I have not found a sound process/strategy that is any of these to date. Are the positive results there to support it, yes they are. But you never know when and how quicklly a change will happen in any market. right now this strategy seems to be working, but I often question myself on how long it will happen. So now while the system works i wanted to form a group who may also be able to take part in this.

There is a reason I can not post things publically, there is a reason this system can not be posted publically, I have done a lot of research and I think if this exact system is published where everyone can see it, there is a good chance it may fall in the laps of the wrong people. There are banks who who watch our positions and purposely use those position to make us fail and them succeed. it is like they want to use your trades against you in order to progress their own accounts. and they successfully do it on a daily basis. I find it ironic that we have access to information they use however we cant get the same information on them as they use about us.

So unfortunately posting this strategy publically is not a good idea and tells me why you never see anyone else posting their perfect strategy in public places. because as soon as you find a nitche that seems to work, the poweres that be make a point to show you who really runs the game. I will however post the proof, and notice ther times are blocked out, that was done for a reason as well. once my group is formed, I will openly share all this information with you how trades like this can be achieved. this was not an altered image in any way I took the last few days or so of trades and made this picture, I did leave the dates in but blocked out the times.



Let me know what you think, and I am curious can anyone tell me something you feel is dangerous in my trading, I hear it a lot when I post images of my account statements I am curious as to who in here will pick it out.


binsyo

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Reply #9 on: May 24, 2014, 03:57 PM
Sir @leroy.fodor, there seems to be something I don't understand on your historical statement account.

Like for example, your last trade:
  • contract size = 2 standard lots
  • open = 1295.81
  • close = 1294.68
That means you earned 113 pips. With that contract size, you should have earned $2 per pip... so total earnings for that trade should be $226.00. But why $22.60 only?

Same for other trades. It seems that you're only earning 10% of the total profit/loss per trade... or have I just miscalculated something?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2014, 04:01 PM by binsyo »


leroy.fodor

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Reply #10 on: May 25, 2014, 02:03 AM
Sir @leroy.fodor, there seems to be something I don't understand on your historical statement account.

Like for example, your last trade:
  • contract size = 2 standard lots
  • open = 1295.81
  • close = 1294.68
That means you earned 113 pips. With that contract size, you should have earned $2 per pip... so total earnings for that trade should be $226.00. But why $22.60 only?

Same for other trades. It seems that you're only earning 10% of the total profit/loss per trade... or have I just miscalculated something?

In the Gold Market you do earn less than tyhe major pair currencies per pip. The reward is 10 Cents per pip not 1 dollar per pip per volume. You should expect to gain about 10 dollars for every 1 dollar in movement in gold. I wish the profit was like the major currency pairs, I would be rich. just in this small section of my statement I would have had 2672 dollars. I think this market is set this way so people like me do not become rich overnight LOl because this market can move 8 to 15 dollars 3 times or more in 1 day and constantly every day just like that. my account would be over 10,000 dollars right now if Gold had a 1 dollar per pip reward.


 


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