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Technical Analysis from FXMars

fxmars · 4 · 1557

fxmars

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on: May 07, 2014, 10:02 AM
Posted by http://fxmars.com

EURUSD:

The price did a bullish break through the three times tested resistance at 1.38500 and it got out of the horizontal corridor it has been following for the past two
weeks. Currently, the price is following another, bullish corridor, which walked the price through the upper level of the symmetrical triangle, which lower level is
the bullish trend line from September, 2013. The current bullish movement of the price is in a convergence with the Stochastic Oscillator, which movement could also be
followed by a bullish corridor. Now, after we have the price above the upper level of the symmetrical triangle, it is likely for the price to seek new, higher tops.
For this reason, the first resistance the price would probably meet is the red line at 1.38891, which indicates the last top of the price. If the price manages to
break this level, we could seek a further interaction with the 0.00% Fibonacci level and an eventual break through this level.
USDJPY:

On the D1 chart the Yen gives some controversial signals. The first thing we notice is the double bottom formation, which bottoms lay on the pink bullish trend line
from April, 2013. Also, with crossing the 102.749 resistance (also a neck line), the price confirmed the formation, which speaks for an eventual upcoming bullish
movement. On the other hand, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the Stochastic Oscillator (blue lines), which contradicts to the already
confirmed double bottom formation. The last bottom from April, 28 sent the price in bullish direction, and a top was created on Friday. The controversial here is that
this is the second top from the divergence between the price and the Stochastic Oscillator. Moreover, the thick red lines on our chart indicate a triangle with a
bearish potential. If the price breaks through the upper level of this triangle, the triangle and the bearish divergence could be considered as fake and we could start
following the already confirmed double bottom formation, which has a potential to meet the price with the upper level of the symmetrical triangle from the beginning of
January and with the blue resistance from May, 2013. The other possible scenario is the bearish one. If the price breaks through the purple bullish trend from April,
2013, which is also the lower level of the bearish triangle, we would have a confirmation of the divergence and we might see the price testing the 101.317 support,
which indicates the bottoms from February 17, March 3, March 17 and April 11.
GBPUSD:

The cable is still moving in the rising wedge formation from April 10, and it even broke the 1.68355 resistance, which indicates the tops from February 12, April 10,
April 17 and April 22. In addition to the rising wedge formation, which as we all know, has bearish potential, we also have a bearish divergence between the chart of
the price and the Stochastic Oscillator (blue lines). While the price was hitting higher tops, the Stochastic Oscillator was demonstrating a slight bearish movement,
which could be the key answer to the to the question “Where is the cable going?”. If a break in the lower level of the wedge occurs, we could seek a drop at least to
the first bottom of the wedge, which is located on the green straight line at 1.66650. If this happens, this could also mean a break in the lower level of the blue
bullish corridor from the end of September 2013.
USDCHF:

After the bearish bounce from the green bearish trend line from April 8, Swissy is testing again the lower level of the symmetrical triangle from March 13. The testing
point of the price also matches with the 0.87783 support (red), which indicates the bottoms April 16, April 17, April 28 and May 1, which means that the price is
testing two levels at once. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is testing the bullish line, which connects its last two bottoms. If a bullish bounce occurs,
we would probably see the price interacting again with the green bearish trend line and eventually with the upper level of the yellow symmetrical triangle. A break
through the red support and the lower level of the yellow triangle would probably bring the price to the 0.87434 support, which indicates the previous clearly stated
bottom of the price. In this case, the Stochastic Oscillator could also be used as a position trigger. If it crosses its bullish trend line in bearish direction, this
could be interpret as a short position signal. If the two lines of the Stochastic Oscillator cross above the blue bullish line, this would clearly support the bullish
scenario.
AUDUSD:

The blue bearish corridor from April 10 brought the Aussie through the purple bullish trend line from January 24, but since this trend line covers bigger time frame,
the break is not significant and it could not be said that the level is overpowered already. Furthermore, there is a bullish divergence between the chart and the
Stochastic Oscillator (green). After crossing the purple trend line, the price dropped to the interaction point of the lower level of the blue bearish corridor and the
0.92065 support, which indicates the 1-month low of the price. The followed bounce brought the price back above the purple bullish trend line. Now the price is about
to meet the upper level of the blue bearish corridor. Having in mind that the price has already reached the big bullish trend line, it could be said that the chances
for a break in the upper level of the blue corridor are bigger and the bullish divergence between the chart and the Stochastic confirms this scenario. If this happens,
the next resistance to be met is the red line at 0.93778.
XAUUSD:

After breaking the symmetrical triangle from March 17 in bearish direction, it could be said that the price is demonstrating an attempt for a change in the trend from
January 8, which is also the lower level of the already broken triangle. On the H4 chart we notice that the gold has already transformed the lower level of the
triangle from a support into a potential resistance. At the same time, the 1306.94 resistance is also a neck line of a potential double bottom formation, which was
created after the break in the triangle on April 24, which makes the two events incompatible. The break in the big bullish trend line is a more significant event than
the potential double bottom formation, which makes the formation not very likely to occur. Furthermore, there is a bearish divergence between the graph of the price
and the Stochastic Oscillator, which supports the change in the trend. At the same time, the Stochastic has just interacted with the 80 level and the two lines are
just crossing, which is another sign for an upcoming bearish activity. If the price bounces from the yellow 1306.94 resistance, the next significant support to be met
is the line 1268.57 line, which indicates the previous big bottom of the price.
Disclaimer: Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any Forex or CFD contracts. Any investment or trading decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely based on the users independent analysis taking into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Neither FxMars.com nor any of its content providers shall be liable for any errors or for any actions taken in reliance thereon


fxmars

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Reply #1 on: May 14, 2014, 02:16 PM
Posted by http://fxmars.com
EURUSD:

The first thing we notice on the D1 chart by the EUR/USD is the bearish divergence between the graph and the Stochastic oscillator. The tops from April 11 and May 8 are in an ascending order on the graph, while the Stochastic Oscillator has arranged them in a descending order. This was the basic sign for the big bearish drop in the last two days, which also brought the price through the lower level of the purple triangle. For this reason, the first break out of the triangle might appear to be false. Now the price is testing the already broken blue 6-years bearish line as a support. If the price breaks through the blue bearish line, we might see a decrease to 1.36714 support, which is also a neck line of the head and shoulders formation with tops from March 13 and May 8. If the price bounces from the blue bearish trend line, the first break through the triangle might appear to be real (not fake), and the price might continue its overall bullish movement, where the next decent resistance is the 1.39900 line, which indicates the top from May 8.
USDJPY:

The price did a bearish break through the purple 1-year bullish trend line, which is also the lower level of the purple symmetrical triangle from the beginning of January. The break also covers the smaller yellow ascending triangle, which was the last location of the price. After this significant break, it would be likely to see a decrease of the price to the 101.197 red support, which connects the last few bottoms of the price. At the same time, the signals of the Stochastic Oscillator are in a contradiction with the events we already mentioned. After interacting with the level 20 line, the blue line of the indicator has crossed the red dotted line in bullish direction, and the indicator has bounced in bullish direction. For this reason, we believe that the price might still drop to the 101.197 support and then it could start seeking bullish movement, which would also satisfy the signals of the Stochastic Oscillator. If this happens, the next resistances the price would meet are the already broken purple bullish trend line and the green 102.770 resistance.
GBPUSD:

The cable shows us a beautiful bearish divergence between the chart and the Stochastic Oscillator, which has already started pushing the price toward a downward movement. Maybe the price would satisfy the false-broken yellow rising wedge formation from April 10 after all. Currently, the price is testing the already broken 1.68377 resistance as a support. This is a level, which was tested on February 17, April 10, April 17 and April 23 and it stood the pressure of the price. Now the level is broken and the price is testing it as a support. If the price bounces from the 1.68377 support, we might see a movement at least to the previous top of the price at 1.69820. If the price breaks the 1.68377 support, the rising wedge formation might gets completed and we might see the price interacting again with the lower level of the blue bullish corridor from the end of September 2013.
USDCHF:

The first thing we notice on the D1 chart by the Swissy is the confirmed double bottom formation on the D1 chart and on the Stochastic Oscillator. The 0.88618 resistance also plays the role of a neck line for the formation and it got broken in Friday. Since the formation is also confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator, we have a significant reason to believe, that the price might increase to its previous top at 0.89486, which is also the neck line of a bigger double top formation (purple). If this happens, it would appear that the bearish break through the yellow triangle from the middle of March is false. On the other hand, if the price does not manage to complete the small double bottom formation and it starts decreasing, the supports the price would experience are the upper and the lower level of the already broken yellow symmetrical triangle, the 0.87697 support and the 0.87453 support.
AUDUSD:

The Aussie attempted a bearish break (red circle) through the purple bullish trend line from January, which is also the lower level of the purple symmetrical triangle from April 10. The followed increase of the price has the shape of a rising wedge formation (small blue lines), which brought the price to the upper level of the triangle. As we all know, the rising wedge formation has bearish potential, and in this case, it has the potential to bring the price out of the symmetrical triangle, through the lower level. Furthermore, with meeting the upper level of the triangle, the price also met the 0.93787 resistance, which makes the test point even stronger. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is just crossing its lines in bearish direction after it interacted with the 80-level line and it looks like we will see a bearish bounce. For this reason, if the price starts decreasing, the supports it would meet are the lower level of the purple triangle and the red 0.92053 line, which was already tested twice on April 3 and May 2. If the price breaks through the upper level of the triangle, it would probably increase to the 0.9458 resistance, which indicates the 6-months high of the price.
XAUUSD:

After it broke first through the lower level of the red symmetrical triangle from March 17, which also matches with the bullish trend line from January 8, the price started moving in a bullish corridor (green). The corridor brought the price through the yellow resistance at 1307.01, which indicates the previous top of the price, which, despite of the break through the lower level of the triangle, accredits the bullish movement of the price. Now, seeing the direction of the price, despite of the break through the lower level of the triangle, it is hard to be said which side of the triangle the price broke through. Currently, the price is testing the lower level of the green bullish corridor. If the price breaks through this level, the next support to be met is the 1273.95 support, which points the previous bottom of the price, and the already broken red bearish trend line from March 17, which is also the upper level of the triangle we mentioned. If the price bounces from the lower level of the green bullish corridor, the price would probably meet the already broken lower level of the triangle as a resistance, the 1316.29 resistance, which indicates the previous top of the price and the upper level of the corridor.
Disclaimer: Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any Forex or CFD contracts. Any investment or trading decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely based on the users independent analysis taking into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Neither FxMars.com nor any of its content providers shall be liable for any errors or for any actions taken in reliance thereon


fxmars

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Reply #2 on: May 19, 2014, 11:33 AM
Posted by fxmars.com
EURUSD:

After breaking the symmetrical triangle from the middle of March in bearish direction, the price created a Double Top formation, which got confirmed on Thursday with crossing the neck line at 1.36714. This is the basic reason to believe that the price would basically decrease in longer term and it could even reach 1.34650. At the same time, in the last two weeks, the price did a significantly fast drop, which has been slowing down in the last few trading days after the price reached the red neck line at 1.36714. This hints that a correction might come soon. Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator signalizes for an eventual upcoming increase of the price. The most reasonable resistance to be met is the upper level of the already broken symmetrical triangle from the middle of March. The price might start the expected bearish movement afterwards.
USDJPY:

After breaking in bearish direction through the symmetrical triangle from the beginning of January, the Yen tested the already broken lower level of the formation as a resistance and bounced in bearish direction again, where it met the 5-times tested support at 101.197. Having in mind that the price broke in bearish direction the triangle, which is older and stronger, it is likely to see the price breaking through the 101.197 support too. If the price breaks through this support, there would not be any significant support to be met at least until 96.405, which is the level indicating the last significant bottom of the price on W1. If the price bounces from the 101.197 support, it would probably reach again the already broken level of the triangle and the 102.770 resistance afterwards.
GBPUSD:

The Cable reached 1.69970, which is now considered as a 5-years high for the price. As a result of the bearish divergence between the chart and the stochastic oscillator, a bearish drop occurred afterwards and the price reached again the lower level of the blue bullish corridor from September 2013. As we see, there is a clear bounce from the lower level of the corridor, which infers that a bigger bullish movement is about to appear. At the same time, with getting out of the 0-20 area, the stochastic oscillator gives a beautiful bullish signal, which supports the bullish scenario. The next resistance to be met is the purple level at 1.69970, which indicates the previous top of the price.
USDCHF:

With completing the smaller double bottom formation (blue) with bottoms from April 11 and May 8, the Swissy reached the 0.89486 resistance, which appears to be the neck line of another bigger double bottom formation (green) with bottoms from March 13 and May 8. The neck line got broken anyway, which infers a bullish increase, which could even push the price to the value of 0.91410. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator signalizes that the market is overbought and a decrease in the price might occur. For this reason, it is possible to see the price correcting to the 0.88618 neck line of the smaller blue double bottom formation and to test it as a support, before any upward movement.
AUDUSD:

After the Aussie created the impression that a head and shoulders formation might get confirmed, there was an interaction with the purple bullish trend line from the end of January, the price closed a dragonfly Doji candlestick and a bullish increase occurred. The price reached its previous top at 0.93787 afterwards. The top the price just formed could be lined with the 0.94580 top of the price from April 10, which creates the upper side of a symmetrical triangle. This means that the price is going to break through the triangle in bearish or in bullish direction. If the upper level of the triangle gets broken, the price would probably meet the 0.94580 resistance. If the lower level of the triangle gets broken, we might see the price testing the 0.92053 support again and we might speak again of a head and shoulders formation. We remind that the lower level of the triangle is older and many times tested, which makes it stronger than the upper level of the triangle.
XAUUSD:

After getting out of the triangle from the middle of March (red), the price is rather moving horizontally than in bullish or bearish direction. In other words, the gold is currently consolidating. The consolidation of the pair resembles a descending triangle (blue), which creation has started in the beginning of April, and it is likely to be broken through the lower level. Currently, the price is moving toward the lower level of the formation, which is horizontal and it is located at 1273.95. If the lower level of the formation gets broken, the price would most likely meet the already broken upper level of the red triangle and it would test it as a support. If the price breaks through the upper level of the formation it would have three more resistances on its way – the yellow resistance at 1307.01, which indicates the last three tops of the price, the purple 1316.29 resistance, which indicates the top of the candlewicks by the middle top and the already broken lower level of the red triangle.
Disclaimer: Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any Forex or CFD contracts. Any investment or trading decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely based on the users independent analysis taking into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Neither FxMars.com nor any of its content providers shall be liable for any errors or for any actions taken in reliance thereon


fxmars

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Reply #3 on: May 26, 2014, 11:26 PM
Posted by fxmars.com
EURUSD:

The last two tops from April 11 and May 08 and the last two bottoms from April 07 and May 13 were in bearish divergence with the stochastic oscillator, which was the basic signal for the drop in the last two weeks. The price of the pair crossed the 1.36714 neck line of the double top formation with tops from March 13 and May 8, which is the confirmation of the formation. For this reason, we expect a continuation of the bearish tendency. On its way down the is about to meet the 1.35588 support, which indicate the bottom of the price from February 12 and the 1.34734 support, which points the 3-months low from January 26.
USDJPY:

After the price of the Yen broke the purple bullish trend line from March 2013, it tested it as a resistance and decreased to 100.818. This decrease broke the 4-times tested support at 101.197. The drop of the price through the purple bullish trend from March 2013 could be marked with a bearish trend line (orange) on the graph. After the drop through the 101.197 support, the price started an increase, which is about to meet the price again with the recent orange bearish trend line. Having in mind the last events by the Yen, it is likely to expect a bearish bounce from the orange trend line, which could be the beginning of a new bearish advance. With the expected interaction with the orange bearish trend line, the stochastic oscillator is about to enter the 80-100 area, whereupon the market would be considered as overbought.
GBPUSD:

With reaching 1.69951 on May 06, the cable created a 5-years high. The followed drop decreased the price to the lower level of the blue bullish corridor from September 2013. The test point of the lower level of the corridor is also the interaction point of the lower level of the corridor and the 1.67214, which made the level even stronger. The price did a bullish bounce, which created a second top, lower top on 1.69180. The two tops are in a bullish divergence with the stochastic oscillator, which supports the idea that after interacting again with the lower level of the blue bullish corridor, the price would eventually start increasing again. The potential resistances are the already broken level at 1.68377, and the 1.69952 level, which indicates the 5-years high we already discussed. If the price breaks through the lower level of the blue bullish corridor, the first support to be met is the 1.67214 level, which indicates the last bottom of the price from May 15.
USDCHF:

With crossing the 0.89486 neck line, the price confirmed the double bottom formation with bottoms from March 13 and May 08, which in general infers for an upcoming bullish movement. At the same time, with the break through the neck line of the formation, the price created a rising wedge formation, which is the reason to believe that the price might do a correction of the bullish movement, before increasing more. If the wedge breaks in bearish direction, a potential target of the price would be the 0.88618 support, which is the already broken neck line of another, smaller and already completed double bottom formation. Potential resistances of the price are the 0.90367 level, which marks an old top of the price from February 12 and the 0.90825 resistance, which indicates another top from February 3.
AUDUSD:

After breaking through the purple bullish trend line from February 24, which is also the lower level of the triangle from April 10 the Aussie decreased to its previous bottom at 0.92027. The support, which indicates this bottom, is also the neck line of a double top formation and it is still not broken. Currently, the price is testing the neck line of the formation. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator signalizes that the market is oversold, which implies that a bullish increase might occur. If this happens, the price would be about to meet the purple bearish trend line from April 10, which is also the upper level of the already broken triangle. If the price breaks through the neck line at 0.92027, the double top formation would be confirmed and we could expect the price to drop to the support at 0.89892, which indicates the previous bottom of the price.
XAUUSD:

After breaking the triangle from March 17, the Gold started a consolidation, which resembles another triangle (blue), which was established on April 14. The upper level of the triangle has been tested for six times and the lower level has been tested for 5 times. As we see, the triangle is to its end and we will probably witness a break through one of the sides during the following week. At the same time, the movement of the stochastic oscillator matches with the ticks of the graph, which means that the stochastic could be used as a trigger of a position if it anticipates the eventual break through one of the sides of the triangle. When the triangle gets broken, the first levels to be met by the price are the upper and the lower level of the already broken purple triangle from March 17.
Disclaimer: Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any Forex or CFD contracts. Any investment or trading decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely based on the users independent analysis taking into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Neither FxMars.com nor any of its content providers shall be liable for any errors or for any actions taken in reliance thereon


 


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