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is this month and year a good entry point for investing in stocks (long term) ?

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richpulubi

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If you're serious about being long term, then any time is good.  Long term being 3-5 years at least. 

Ako, I always thought I was long term, but I keep harvesting every two years or so.  Kasi, mataas ang akyat naman!

But if I had any regrets...it was all the time I wasted trying to time the market.  Watching the news.  Better na lang keep the funds invested and forget about them for at leat 3 years.


ferrariEverest

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The direction doesn't matter.
It actually does matter, particularly if the instrument involved can be traded long or short.

For instruments that do not offer 2-way trading, it can still matter.

By the way, many people are unaware that good news does not always equate to (or is not always followed by) an up move (short or long-term). Same goes for bad news. In short, 1 + 1 is not always = 2. :D


ferrariEverest

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But if I had any regrets...it was all the time I wasted trying to time the market.  Watching the news.  Better na lang keep the funds invested and forget about them for at least 3 years.
Oo, for most people pang gulo lang ang news.

Pwede mo siya kalimutan ng 3 years or more, pero it depends on the prevailing market condition.


Wills

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

That only applies in long term strategy.


GIG

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.



agree


ferrariEverest

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

That only applies in long term strategy.
Kambal Wills,

It depends on your perspective or how you trade or invest. Siguro sa FA or VIs, hindi masyado factor yan. Pero for guys like me, it does matter a lot, whether in buying or holding mode. TA guys are very opportunistic compared to FA or VI people. We have the option to move in and out of instruments fast or stay in and hold if necessary.

Very few people are into TA, kaya few people can put themselves in our shoes and bihira ang nakakaalam or nakakaintindi kung paano kami maglaro ng market. And with TA, we can trade an instrument or stock even with ZERO knowledge of the business or economic moat (or lack of) of that particular stock.

We have the same end goals but we differ in the approach and (slightly in the) perspective.


TSO

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It actually does matter.

Dude, don't ignore the original context I wrote that with.

The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst. The questions that have to be asked center on "relevance" and "timing", the latter of which is improbable to predict. (I'd like to believe it's impossible, but that's my opinion.)

Quote
By the way, many people are unaware that good news does not always equate to (or is not always followed by) an up move (short or long-term). Same goes for bad news. In short, 1 + 1 is not always = 2. :D

True. Behavioral factors, systematic risks, and nonstationary correlations also affect the stock price, not just company or industry specific developments.

Addendum:

Quote
Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

Depends on your source of capital and your liquidity needs.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 06:02 PM by TSO »


ferrariEverest

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Dude, don't ignore the original context I wrote that with.
Brother TSO,

you are up early again? :D

Regardless, trend direction does matter.

I never ignored the context. I am fully aware of it and I actually I agree with that context because that is 1 of many things I've observed over the years.

Quote
The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst. The questions that have to be asked center on "relevance" and "timing", the latter of which is improbable to predict. (I'd like to believe it's impossible, but that's my opinion.)
You forgot that timing is a hallmark of TA. That is our distinct advantage over FA or VI guys (unless you have insider info). Timing is 1 of the primary tools we use to achieve multi-bagger fat tails (exaggeration :D ) in short spans of time.

Having said that, I can come up with situations wherein it fits the case in which
Quote
The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst

Being a forex trader, I am and have been exposed to catalysts of all types every single day (even during weekends!). I have a much much broader perspective of the whole financial market compared to local stock investors.

Ang kulit siguro natin kung natuloy ako sumama nung December :D
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 10:01 PM by ferrariEverest »


Wills

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@FE

BrotherMan I'm not talking about my own perspective, what I said is a proven principle.


ferrariEverest

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@FE

BrotherMan I'm not talking about my own perspective, what I said is a proven principle.
What do you mean, Kambal?

Not about your own perspective = not your own experience?

Ako naman, I'm sharing based on my trading experience since circa 2005. Marami ng battle scars, nadaanan ko na ang maraming sakuna :D

Like I said, we will have varying views because we are from different camps (TA, VI/FA), although unlike you guys may perspective ako ng FA/VI kasi we use certain similar principles. But end goals are quite the same.


TSO

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Brother TSO,

you are up early again? :D

I'm a late sleeper. My family calls it "permanent jet lag" lol.

Anyway, I get it. You have multiple catalysts all day. But then again, you're talking about forex. Literally anything can move the currency markets. Hell, Manny Pacquaio's first loss (whenever that would be lol) might just cause the peso to depreciate. I don't know!

But stocks? I don't buy that. But am I wrong or not? I wouldn't know. I'm not a TA person, though I do believe in timing. The difference is that we value guys rely on the short-term momentum caused by insufficient expectations and/or mean reversion.


Wills

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What do you mean, Kambal?

Not about your own perspective = not your own experience?

Ako naman, I'm sharing based on my trading experience since circa 2005. Marami ng battle scars, nadaanan ko na ang maraming sakuna :D

Like I said, we will have varying views because we are from different camps (TA, VI/FA), although unlike you guys may perspective ako ng FA/VI kasi we use certain similar principles. But end goals are quite the same.

Yup learned it from the masters then experienced it. I think its one of the most important principle in long term strategy. It is very hard to hold a stock without that principle.


I don't believe in TA but don't get me wrong, I'm like- "I hate communism but I love the communist" hehehe


richpulubi

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Bilib ako how you guys seem to have a ggod grasp of the fluctuations of the market...something I've tried so many times, pero talagang hindi kaya ng kokote ko...lalo na ang TA. 

Kaya, more or less, I just decide on the news.  If the news is all bad, I buy.  When it's all good news(like now), I sell. 

And so, I sold...pero, may upswing pa!  Darn that I missed it...


ferrariEverest

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I'm a late sleeper. My family calls it "permanent jet lag" lol.

Anyway, I get it. You have multiple catalysts all day. But then again, you're talking about forex. Literally anything can move the currency markets. Hell, Manny Pacquaio's first loss (whenever that would be lol) might just cause the peso to depreciate. I don't know!

But stocks? I don't buy that. But am I wrong or not? I wouldn't know. I'm not a TA person, though I do believe in timing. The difference is that we value guys rely on the short-term momentum caused by insufficient expectations and/or mean reversion.
permanent jet lag, hahaha. I used to have one as well.  :D

International stocks also have daily/frequent catalysts. That's just how it is. The main difference is the magnitude and breadth of effects of catalysts are much larger in Forex than in int'l stocks, and that makes it much more difficult and challenging to trade FX.

Regarding that last sentence, that's part of what some of us do and use as well. You just confirmed my observation further (different disciplines, but similar/shared priniciples)!


ferrariEverest

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Bilib ako how you guys seem to have a ggod grasp of the fluctuations of the market...something I've tried so many times, pero talagang hindi kaya ng kokote ko...lalo na ang TA. 

Kaya, more or less, I just decide on the news.  If the news is all bad, I buy.  When it's all good news(like now), I sell. 

And so, I sold...pero, may upswing pa!  Darn that I missed it...
Sir, if that strategy works for you, you can simply focus on it. That's probably where you're good at. Never mind us young brats. :D

No good grasp yet, there is so much to learn out there. Masarap matuto!


 


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