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is this month and year a good entry point for investing in stocks (long term) ?

denzgutz · 67 · 14892

denzgutz

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hi everyone, just starting out in stock investment. is this month and year a good entry point to start? TIA  :thankyou:


Wills

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GIG

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Anytime is good as long as there is a stock being sold for a cheap price.

well said . . . man you are on a roll. 2nd time napa agree completely sa iyo ah. Baka maging yes man mo na ako hehehehe!



pulubing_palaboy

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Anytime is good as long as there is a stock being sold for a cheap price.
let me qualify your statement:

anytime is good as long as there is a stock with potential for appreciation being sold for a cheap price.



jmces

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denzgutz

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salamat sa mga nagreply. however, i just noticed na lately halos by cents na lang ang difference ng mga stocks against the buy below price that's why im hesitant to make my first buy. also why are there stocks na lampas sa buy below price yun presyo pero ang advise ng broker (COL) "buy" pa rin like sa case ng jfc?


agui

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Ano po epekto nito? S&P upgraded Philippines credit rating from -bbb to bbb? Ok po b ngaun mag invest s stocks? Pauwi n kc ako next week. Thanks po.


empleyado

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Ano po epekto nito? S&P upgraded Philippines credit rating from -bbb to bbb? Ok po b ngaun mag invest s stocks? Pauwi n kc ako next week. Thanks po.

The index corrected deeply 2 months after the upgrade last year.  :D


wilch23

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let me qualify your statement:

anytime is good as long as there is a stock with potential for appreciation being sold for a cheap price.
[/quote

May I add, anytime is good as long as there is a stock with potential for appreciation being sold for a cheap price, PROVIDED you are still alive when it reached its potential.


TSO

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The index corrected deeply 2 months after the upgrade last year.  :D

That's good. :)

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May I add, anytime is good as long as there is a stock with potential for appreciation being sold for a cheap price, PROVIDED you are still alive when it reached its potential.

Thus the emphasis on catalysts on both macro (industry) and micro (company-specific) levels.


patski

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Thus the emphasis on catalysts on both macro (industry) and micro (company-specific) levels.

Totally agree.. TA aspect, stocks that are ranging is waiting for a "catalyst" either the price to move up (good news) or move down (bad news)  :boxing:

Thats my experience po for watching the market for almost 1 year na.. :bday:


TSO

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Totally agree.. TA aspect, stocks that are ranging is waiting for a "catalyst" either the price to move up (good news) or move down (bad news)  :boxing:

Thats my experience po for watching the market for almost 1 year na.. :bday:

The direction doesn't matter. Catalysts can reinforce or redirect an ongoing trend, provided the price does not already reflect it. Implied market expectations and the beta coefficient are important figures for this sort of analysis.

Optimally, you will want bad news that broadly affect the market as a whole and good news that correspond specifically with the company and/or its industry.


Wills

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Optimally, you will want bad news that broadly affect the market as a whole and good news that correspond specifically with the company and/or its industry.


Like!


richpulubi

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If you're serious about being long term, then any time is good.  Long term being 3-5 years at least. 

Ako, I always thought I was long term, but I keep harvesting every two years or so.  Kasi, mataas ang akyat naman!

But if I had any regrets...it was all the time I wasted trying to time the market.  Watching the news.  Better na lang keep the funds invested and forget about them for at leat 3 years.


ferrariEverest

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The direction doesn't matter.
It actually does matter, particularly if the instrument involved can be traded long or short.

For instruments that do not offer 2-way trading, it can still matter.

By the way, many people are unaware that good news does not always equate to (or is not always followed by) an up move (short or long-term). Same goes for bad news. In short, 1 + 1 is not always = 2. :D


ferrariEverest

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But if I had any regrets...it was all the time I wasted trying to time the market.  Watching the news.  Better na lang keep the funds invested and forget about them for at least 3 years.
Oo, for most people pang gulo lang ang news.

Pwede mo siya kalimutan ng 3 years or more, pero it depends on the prevailing market condition.


Wills

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

That only applies in long term strategy.


GIG

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.



agree


ferrariEverest

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@FE

Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

That only applies in long term strategy.
Kambal Wills,

It depends on your perspective or how you trade or invest. Siguro sa FA or VIs, hindi masyado factor yan. Pero for guys like me, it does matter a lot, whether in buying or holding mode. TA guys are very opportunistic compared to FA or VI people. We have the option to move in and out of instruments fast or stay in and hold if necessary.

Very few people are into TA, kaya few people can put themselves in our shoes and bihira ang nakakaalam or nakakaintindi kung paano kami maglaro ng market. And with TA, we can trade an instrument or stock even with ZERO knowledge of the business or economic moat (or lack of) of that particular stock.

We have the same end goals but we differ in the approach and (slightly in the) perspective.


TSO

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It actually does matter.

Dude, don't ignore the original context I wrote that with.

The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst. The questions that have to be asked center on "relevance" and "timing", the latter of which is improbable to predict. (I'd like to believe it's impossible, but that's my opinion.)

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By the way, many people are unaware that good news does not always equate to (or is not always followed by) an up move (short or long-term). Same goes for bad news. In short, 1 + 1 is not always = 2. :D

True. Behavioral factors, systematic risks, and nonstationary correlations also affect the stock price, not just company or industry specific developments.

Addendum:

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Market condition is never a factor when you are in a holding position but it does matter if you are in a buying mode. Business of the stock you owned is what you should monitor.

Depends on your source of capital and your liquidity needs.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 06:02 PM by TSO »


ferrariEverest

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Dude, don't ignore the original context I wrote that with.
Brother TSO,

you are up early again? :D

Regardless, trend direction does matter.

I never ignored the context. I am fully aware of it and I actually I agree with that context because that is 1 of many things I've observed over the years.

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The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst. The questions that have to be asked center on "relevance" and "timing", the latter of which is improbable to predict. (I'd like to believe it's impossible, but that's my opinion.)
You forgot that timing is a hallmark of TA. That is our distinct advantage over FA or VI guys (unless you have insider info). Timing is 1 of the primary tools we use to achieve multi-bagger fat tails (exaggeration :D ) in short spans of time.

Having said that, I can come up with situations wherein it fits the case in which
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The direction of a trend won't matter given a strong enough catalyst

Being a forex trader, I am and have been exposed to catalysts of all types every single day (even during weekends!). I have a much much broader perspective of the whole financial market compared to local stock investors.

Ang kulit siguro natin kung natuloy ako sumama nung December :D
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 10:01 PM by ferrariEverest »


Wills

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@FE

BrotherMan I'm not talking about my own perspective, what I said is a proven principle.


ferrariEverest

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@FE

BrotherMan I'm not talking about my own perspective, what I said is a proven principle.
What do you mean, Kambal?

Not about your own perspective = not your own experience?

Ako naman, I'm sharing based on my trading experience since circa 2005. Marami ng battle scars, nadaanan ko na ang maraming sakuna :D

Like I said, we will have varying views because we are from different camps (TA, VI/FA), although unlike you guys may perspective ako ng FA/VI kasi we use certain similar principles. But end goals are quite the same.


TSO

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Brother TSO,

you are up early again? :D

I'm a late sleeper. My family calls it "permanent jet lag" lol.

Anyway, I get it. You have multiple catalysts all day. But then again, you're talking about forex. Literally anything can move the currency markets. Hell, Manny Pacquaio's first loss (whenever that would be lol) might just cause the peso to depreciate. I don't know!

But stocks? I don't buy that. But am I wrong or not? I wouldn't know. I'm not a TA person, though I do believe in timing. The difference is that we value guys rely on the short-term momentum caused by insufficient expectations and/or mean reversion.


Wills

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What do you mean, Kambal?

Not about your own perspective = not your own experience?

Ako naman, I'm sharing based on my trading experience since circa 2005. Marami ng battle scars, nadaanan ko na ang maraming sakuna :D

Like I said, we will have varying views because we are from different camps (TA, VI/FA), although unlike you guys may perspective ako ng FA/VI kasi we use certain similar principles. But end goals are quite the same.

Yup learned it from the masters then experienced it. I think its one of the most important principle in long term strategy. It is very hard to hold a stock without that principle.


I don't believe in TA but don't get me wrong, I'm like- "I hate communism but I love the communist" hehehe


richpulubi

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Bilib ako how you guys seem to have a ggod grasp of the fluctuations of the market...something I've tried so many times, pero talagang hindi kaya ng kokote ko...lalo na ang TA. 

Kaya, more or less, I just decide on the news.  If the news is all bad, I buy.  When it's all good news(like now), I sell. 

And so, I sold...pero, may upswing pa!  Darn that I missed it...


ferrariEverest

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I'm a late sleeper. My family calls it "permanent jet lag" lol.

Anyway, I get it. You have multiple catalysts all day. But then again, you're talking about forex. Literally anything can move the currency markets. Hell, Manny Pacquaio's first loss (whenever that would be lol) might just cause the peso to depreciate. I don't know!

But stocks? I don't buy that. But am I wrong or not? I wouldn't know. I'm not a TA person, though I do believe in timing. The difference is that we value guys rely on the short-term momentum caused by insufficient expectations and/or mean reversion.
permanent jet lag, hahaha. I used to have one as well.  :D

International stocks also have daily/frequent catalysts. That's just how it is. The main difference is the magnitude and breadth of effects of catalysts are much larger in Forex than in int'l stocks, and that makes it much more difficult and challenging to trade FX.

Regarding that last sentence, that's part of what some of us do and use as well. You just confirmed my observation further (different disciplines, but similar/shared priniciples)!


ferrariEverest

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Bilib ako how you guys seem to have a ggod grasp of the fluctuations of the market...something I've tried so many times, pero talagang hindi kaya ng kokote ko...lalo na ang TA. 

Kaya, more or less, I just decide on the news.  If the news is all bad, I buy.  When it's all good news(like now), I sell. 

And so, I sold...pero, may upswing pa!  Darn that I missed it...
Sir, if that strategy works for you, you can simply focus on it. That's probably where you're good at. Never mind us young brats. :D

No good grasp yet, there is so much to learn out there. Masarap matuto!


richpulubi

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Sir, if that strategy works for you, you can simply focus on it. That's probably where you're good at. Never mind us young brats. :D

No good grasp yet, there is so much to learn out there. Masarap matuto!

Salamat naman!  Nakakastress lang yung laging nakabantay sa CNBC...

I'm actually trying to create regular income na from my investments...kumbaga practice just in case I choose to take an early retirement, instead of buying and holding forever.


ferrariEverest

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Salamat naman!  Nakakastress lang yung laging nakabantay sa CNBC...

I'm actually trying to create regular income na from my investments...kumbaga practice just in case I choose to take an early retirement, instead of buying and holding forever.
It's not necessary na bantayan ang cnbc. Try to find more efficient ways to monitor relevant news. For instance, you can focus on 1 or several local news websites, tutukan nyo lang yung relevant topics or businesses of interest nyo. By doing so, focused info ang makukuha nyo (Unlike cnbc where in mas maraming balita kayong makikita na irrelevant sa topic or business of interest nyo).

More information = greater analysis paralysis = greater stress (more harm than good)

Buy and hold forever is ok for some stocks and for certain market conditions. Pero may opportunities wherein big profits come in within short spans of time. I believe isa ito sa ina-aapply nyo at ok po yun.


Wills

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Buy and hold forever is ok for some stocks and for certain market conditions. Pero may opportunities wherein big profits come in within short spans of time. I believe isa ito sa ina-aapply nyo at ok po yun.

Yup stock flip. I like that!


TSO

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Salamat naman!  Nakakastress lang yung laging nakabantay sa CNBC...

I have CNBC running just for the lulz. I don't really give a sh*t about whatever they're saying at all. LOL.

Just remember, anything on the mainstream (yes, that includes CNBC) is rampant with noise, making the signal extremely difficult to detect.

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I'm actually trying to create regular income na from my investments...kumbaga practice just in case I choose to take an early retirement, instead of buying and holding forever.

If you're after regular income, consider high-yield or low-level investment-grade corporate bonds from the right issuer. The question, of course, is always finding the market to buy it. I wish trading bonds was as easy as trading stocks.

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More information = greater analysis paralysis = greater stress (more harm than good)

You're missing something.

More relevant information = greater information edge = more robust valuations.

The key is to determining what's relevant and what's not. The problem is, company filings in both the Philippines and the USA are filled with unnecessary drivel and legalese.


scorpions84

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Lupit ng thread na 'to...Battle of the bands...

Tanong mga masters.

Balak ko po kasi mag long term investments sa stocks, FA based. Ngayon, kung yung price ng shares e biglang humataw pababa, ika nga e, tapos na yung bull run, hahayaan ko lang ba yung shares ko sa company given na astig pa rin yung fundamentals nila?

Kasi po sa TA camp, dala ko pa rin yung mindset na protect yung capital. Iniisip ko lang kung paano sa FA/VI camp ang pagpprotect ng capital sa panahon ng correction.

Maraming salamas sa inyong patnubay sa nakababata. :D


ferrariEverest

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I have CNBC running just for the lulz. I don't really give a sh*t about whatever they're saying at all. LOL.
lol, I can relate. For many years since about 2001, Bloomberg was part of my regular diet. Stopped doing it about 5 years ago.

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You're missing something.

More relevant information = greater information edge = more robust valuations.

The key is to determining what's relevant and what's not.
Didn't really miss anything. My point was that it is never healthy to monitor news on a regular basis (to the point that he, admittedly, experienced stress doing so).

I agree that relevant info is key and sifting well is extremely beneficial. Unfortunately, most people do not have the skill to sift through all the garbage, so for most, it's better to avoid the news (at least initially) and spent more time improving their skills.


Wills

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Lupit ng thread na 'to...Battle of the bands...

Tanong mga masters.

Balak ko po kasi mag long term investments sa stocks, FA based. Ngayon, kung yung price ng shares e biglang humataw pababa, ika nga e, tapos na yung bull run, hahayaan ko lang ba yung shares ko sa company given na astig pa rin yung fundamentals nila?

Kasi po sa TA camp, dala ko pa rin yung mindset na protect yung capital. Iniisip ko lang kung paano sa FA/VI camp ang pagpprotect ng capital sa panahon ng correction.

Maraming salamas sa inyong patnubay sa nakababata. :D


Asuming you know how to value a stock and forecast the future earnings, don't sell.

You hold stock for long term because you have an idea on what will happen on the company's future.



jmces

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Lupit ng thread na 'to...Battle of the bands...

Tanong mga masters.

Balak ko po kasi mag long term investments sa stocks, FA based. Ngayon, kung yung price ng shares e biglang humataw pababa, ika nga e, tapos na yung bull run, hahayaan ko lang ba yung shares ko sa company given na astig pa rin yung fundamentals nila?

Kasi po sa TA camp, dala ko pa rin yung mindset na protect yung capital. Iniisip ko lang kung paano sa FA/VI camp ang pagpprotect ng capital sa panahon ng correction.

Maraming salamas sa inyong patnubay sa nakababata. :D

hindi ako master makikiepal lang :D
kung mangyari yang scenario mo madali lang yan,
buy more shares  :cool2:


TSO

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Didn't really miss anything. My point was that it is never healthy to monitor news on a regular basis (to the point that he, admittedly, experienced stress doing so).

I agree that relevant info is key and sifting well is extremely beneficial. Unfortunately, most people do not have the skill to sift through all the garbage, so for most, it's better to avoid the news (at least initially) and spent more time improving their skills.

I was trying to add some more weight to your statement, but whatever the case, I agree with you there!

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Balak ko po kasi mag long term investments sa stocks, FA based. Ngayon, kung yung price ng shares e biglang humataw pababa, ika nga e, tapos na yung bull run, hahayaan ko lang ba yung shares ko sa company given na astig pa rin yung fundamentals nila?

Assuming you did your research correctly and sufficiently explored your valuation scenarios, then yes, keep it. You may have to wait for a long time, but the momentum from industry and company-specific catalysts will accumulate and push the company's fortunes up, taking the stock price with it.

This is not buy and hold. It is buy and monitor, because you will want to ease your positions or liquidate them entirely if they start messing up on you.

For example, Iridium Communications (IRDM) used to be a significant 15% position in my partnership's test portfolio until my partner threw in $20,000 without batting an eyelash. But based on my analysis (which is still incomplete), I've been seeing enough problems to convince me that we shouldn't hold a very high position in IRDM. If the valuation results indicate the company is still worth the risk, then I'll bump up the position back to 5% and leave it at that.


Wills

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wilch23

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TSO

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^BUT buy and hold does not mean buy and forget. It's just simply buy and hold :)

Problem is, most people equate "buy and hold" with "buy and forget". Might as well change semantics.


jmces

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Problem is, most people equate "buy and hold" with "buy and forget". Might as well change semantics.

buy and hope lol!


Wills

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kulatir

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george88

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kulatir

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Dapat si TSO magtayo na ng ph version ng Berkshire hathaway sama mo kami... :hihi:

Tama, sa dami ng millionaire dito sa PMT, magbusiness partners na lang sila diba,



LiveLoveInvest

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If you're in it for long term investing, I think anytime is a good time, especially if you are there to buy and hold. peso cost averaging would always be your best friend.  :watchuthink:


vicces

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good entry point? sure. but then there is a "better" entry point.. and theres the "best" entry point.

I dont think this is the "best" time to enter the market.


sj.unite

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Based on historical data, the best months that you may enter the market is June and August because that's when the market is at its lowest compared to other months. Pero in general po yan. It doesn't mean that there are no other windows of opportunity to buy on other dates.


wilch23

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Tama, sa dami ng millionaire dito sa PMT, magbusiness partners na lang sila diba,

Dapat billionaire, kasi a million can't even buy a mid size car nowadays.


wilch23

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Based on historical data, the best months that you may enter the market is June and August because that's when the market is at its lowest compared to other months. Pero in general po yan. It doesn't mean that there are no other windows of opportunity to buy on other dates.

Since May is done as far as trading is concerned, I think you have your answer already.

Anyone did the sell in May and go away thing? The first half "sell in May" is good so far, we now awaits the "go away part".


richpulubi

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Since May is done as far as trading is concerned, I think you have your answer already.

Anyone did the sell in May and go away thing? The first half "sell in May" is good so far, we now awaits the "go away part".

I sold in May...pero EARLY May, kaya namiss ko yung 'peak'.

Pero, kita pa rin naman!

Next, start buying again...


sj.unite

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Since May is done as far as trading is concerned, I think you have your answer already.

Anyone did the sell in May and go away thing? The first half "sell in May" is good so far, we now awaits the "go away part".

While waiting, it's best to reload fresh cash to get ready for a shopping spree.


hunkinvestor

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If you're serious about being long term, then any time is good.  Long term being 3-5 years at least. 

Ako, I always thought I was long term, but I keep harvesting every two years or so.  Kasi, mataas ang akyat naman!

But if I had any regrets...it was all the time I wasted trying to time the market.  Watching the news.  Better na lang keep the funds invested and forget about them for at leat 3 years.

Hello. If I may ask lang, yung port mo ba is 100% long term? Do you always buy blue chip? Gusto ko actually ng capital gains and higher risks pero I don't think I can devote my self that much kahit na gusto ko. So I would like to be on the safer side na lang and what I got from you is really inspiring. Hope you guys can inspire me more.


PS.
Do you also have UITF/MF? If so, how do you compare its performance with stocks?


Thanks. :)


richpulubi

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Hello. If I may ask lang, yung port mo ba is 100% long term? Do you always buy blue chip? Gusto ko actually ng capital gains and higher risks pero I don't think I can devote my self that much kahit na gusto ko. So I would like to be on the safer side na lang and what I got from you is really inspiring. Hope you guys can inspire me more.


PS.
Do you also have UITF/MF? If so, how do you compare its performance with stocks?


Thanks. :)

On the equity side, I only buy uitf's.  Cuz, just like you, I don't have the time to research about individual stocks, and when I do try to understand fa and ta, naduduling ako sa trying hard maintindihan!

I like uitf's cuz I just depend on the research of the fund managers.  If I go individual stocks, I may get it right half of the time, but wrong the other half, and so I may perform just about the same as uitf when averaged out.

Bear in mind, though, that I buy equity uitf's cuz I'm prepared to stay locked in for 3-5 years.  But I treat equity investing like a business, so, kung kumita na ako, even if only a few months(sometimes just a month), I sell!  Tapos, invest again.  Kasi, yung kinita ko, I can use for other investments... 

I probably don't make as much as the ubertraders and uberinvestors here, but I just don't have the time nor the cold analytical genius needed to excel in stock trading.  I'm just good at business.  That's where I make my money.  And just use equities to supplement my networth.



« Last Edit: Jun 02, 2014, 02:38 PM by richpulubi »


hunkinvestor

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@richpulubi

thanks a lot! finally, yung post mo ay naiintindihan ko ng lubos... :D
i think i can only grasp so little things when reading the threads, but I still try to get as much as I can. I can say that your investing style is also something that i envision of doing. but if i may also ask, where do you base what stock to buy, when to buy and when to sell? and i;m also curious how often do you monitor your portfolio and have you ever got tempted to buy penny stocks or try "trading"? i really thought that investing is that simple until the new pieces of information got me overwhelmed.


PS
i wanted to ask some questions about entrepreneurship  too but that would be OT, so i'll reserve that na lang. :)


richpulubi

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@richpulubi

thanks a lot! finally, yung post mo ay naiintindihan ko ng lubos... :D
i think i can only grasp so little things when reading the threads, but I still try to get as much as I can. I can say that your investing style is also something that i envision of doing. but if i may also ask, where do you base what stock to buy, when to buy and when to sell? and i;m also curious how often do you monitor your portfolio and have you ever got tempted to buy penny stocks or try "trading"? i really thought that investing is that simple until the new pieces of information got me overwhelmed.


PS
i wanted to ask some questions about entrepreneurship  too but that would be OT, so i'll reserve that na lang. :)

Trading is out of my league.  Lalo na ang penny stocks.  I still prefer just plain vanilla uitf equities.  For me, the most difficult is to find true diversification.  Kasi all equities kinda go up and down together.  Tapos, fixed income is not the place to be.

What about you?  Where do you invest?


GIG

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Trading is out of my league. 

nah! Hes selling himself short hehehe!

For me, the most difficult is to find true diversification.  Kasi all equities kinda go up and down together.  Tapos, fixed income is not the place to be.

Amen to that!


hunkinvestor

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Trading is out of my league.  Lalo na ang penny stocks.  I still prefer just plain vanilla uitf equities.  For me, the most difficult is to find true diversification.  Kasi all equities kinda go up and down together.  Tapos, fixed income is not the place to be.

What about you?  Where do you invest?


Right now I invest in UITF, specifically BDO's Equity Fund. But definitely I'd like to try buying stocks as well for long term. I just want to add some more knowledge.


richpulubi

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nah! Hes selling himself short hehehe!

Naku! Hindi na kaya ng puso ko.  Parang driving yan.  When I was younger, driving at 120kph was my norm.  Ngayon, minan na lang akong lumalampas ng 100kph!


richpulubi

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Right now I invest in UITF, specifically BDO's Equity Fund. But definitely I'd like to try buying stocks as well for long term. I just want to add some more knowledge.

I too buy bdo uitf.  Happy naman ako.

It's fine if you try some stocks.  Just be open to making mistakes.  It's the best time to experiment, cuz you're young enough to recover any losses. 


Rothschild

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check the individual chart ng stocks sa pse.com.ph..look for stocks na bagsak today and you accumulate them slowly..


wilch23

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I too buy bdo uitf.  Happy naman ako.

It's fine if you try some stocks.  Just be open to making mistakes.  It's the best time to experiment, cuz you're young enough to recover any losses.

You can't be that old, right? Ok nga rin naman equity fund since you can get 10% pa. To diversify, you'll have to go direct to stock investing/trading for high risk high reward (-20 to +20% pa) or take bonds or balanced fund (5-6% pa)


wilch23

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Back to topic. Valid pa ba ang topic question even though ibang month na tayo? Or are we always talking of the current month? In which case sana NOW nalang instead of month and year pa.

Anyway, I believe this is a good year to invest in stock.
June/July maybe not be the month to buy tho. Let me just say that is is based on historical data.

Re 2014/2015 being good years to invest, I have a different premise. It has to do with our demographics.



 


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