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EUR / CAD (EURCAD)

DavidApol · 9 · 2396

DavidApol

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on: Sep 18, 2013, 01:20 PM
The Euro to Bounce Against the Loonie



Looking at the daily chart, the price has been on a long-term uptrend with the bullish channel fitting quite nicely. Currently, price has been testing the lower trend line, indicated by the circle in the chart. Failure to breach the said line would indicate that price will bounce and will soar even higher.

For those who will follow this trade, please take into consideration UK’s collective decision on asset purchases and official bank rate, which is scheduled to come out an hour and a half after the European session starts today.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research?menu=s-technicalreport&code=DAAP


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #1 on: Oct 09, 2014, 07:06 PM


Support and Resistance Level

The break of EURCAD’s 2-year uptrend last August triggered the fiber’s sell-off, bringing the currency to this year’s low at 1.4009 which also serves as the immediate support. It is expected that the pair retests resistance at 1.41977 before continuing its bearish movement.

Trend Indicators

The period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages in the 4-hour chart confirms the euro’s weakness against the loonie as the price moved below the indicators. A resistance zone from the SMAs could presently be found from 1.41346 to 1.41989.

Oscillators

The relative strength index in the 4-hour chart shows short-term bullishness in the currency as RSI level 60 was tested. The test of immediate resistance would coincide with another pullback towards the said index area. A confirmation of the fiber’s weakness would occur with the bounce from RSI level 60.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #2 on: Oct 17, 2014, 05:39 PM


The inflation data is significant to the Canadian currency since it is a determinant of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions. A separate report last week revealed that employment in Canada has been improving.  The employment report showed that the Canadian economy added 74,100 additional employed individuals in the labor market, higher than the 18,700 projection. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.8% from 7.0% for the month of September.  The upward pressure on inflation and the improvement in employment puts the central bank’s monetary policy decisions in focus. A sell position in EURCAD is recommended.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #3 on: Oct 20, 2014, 06:31 PM


The weak industrial output growth for the month of August contributed to the slowdown. Industrial production grew by 6.9% from the year earlier for the month of August, the weakest pace since 2008. These data imply that there is a need for further stimulus in order to avoid the risk of a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy.

A buy position in GBPAUD is recommended.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #4 on: Oct 23, 2014, 05:08 PM


The central bank did not discuss the downside risks of inflation as expected. Canada’s core inflation forecast for the quarter from 1.8% to 2.1% in the monetary policy report. However, the appreciation was deemed to be an overreaction of the market grounded on an insignificant change in tone of the BOC. Despite the increase in core inflation forecast, the data does take into account falling oil prices which remain one of the biggest economic risks as Canada’s major export. Oil prices fell further on yesterday’s release that US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1M barrels, more than the 2.8M forecast.

A short-term buy position in EURCAD is recommended upon the break of the downtrend.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #5 on: Oct 31, 2014, 06:21 PM


Support and Resistance Level

The falling wedge in EURCAD could be nearing its breaking point as very little room for movement could be found within the consolidation. Support currently holds at 1.4064, while immediate resistance could be found at 1.4123. A break of the latter could trigger more euro buying, bringing the currency towards secondary resistance at 1.4222.

Trend Indicators


While still showing a medium-term uptrend, the period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages in the 4-hour chart also show the current bearishness in the pair as the price recently dipped below the trend indicators. A resistance zone from the moving averages exists between 1.4197 and 1.4262.

Oscillators


The relative strength index on the 4-hour chart at 32.28 shows the currency has just recently recovered from oversold conditions. This suggests strong potential for a reversal testing index level 60 after a break of index level 40.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #6 on: Nov 27, 2014, 06:31 PM


The threat of deflation in the Euro area might push the European Central Bank to expand stimulus in its next monetary policy meeting. The threat of deflation has been an ongoing concern in the Euro area. Last month, year on year CPI growth was released to have grown by 0.4%. This figure is not even half of the 1% growth threshold ECB Governor Draghi described as a “danger zone”. The flash estimate of the Euro area inflation growth for the month of October will be released tomorrow. Due to falling import prices and weak demand, year or year inflation growth is expected be at 0.3% for the month of November. Weak inflation data will be confirmation that the ECB will increase easing in order stimulate economic activity in the Euro zone.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #7 on: Jan 29, 2015, 04:07 PM


Support and Resistance Level


EURCAD has generally been moving in a downtrend for almost a year. This downtrend is expected to continue, therefore, a sell opportunity should be taken after the test of the channel resistance of the downtrend at 1.42662. Profit-taking should be done before the 1.39934 level is reached.

Trend Indicators

The 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) simple moving average of EURCAD reveal that the currency pair has generally been moving in a downtrend. This indicates that the downtrend will possibly continue. The simple moving average can serve as a resistance level of the downtrend.

Oscillators

The relative strength index (RSI) of the EURCAD four-hour chart reveals that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold. The RSI is currently at 59.14. There is room for the currency pair to temporarily go up before going down.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #8 on: Feb 24, 2015, 04:59 PM


Last Friday, talks between Greece and the Euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels concluded a conditional agreement regarding Greece’s debt program. The country’s debt is 175% of their GDP. Greece will propose reforms in order to get a four-month extension of the current bailout. The new policies proposed include plans to fight tax evasion, tackling fuel and tobacco smuggling. If approved, Greece will be granted an extension to its bailout program. However, a collapse of the deal would revive concern over the possibility of Greece’s exit from the Euro. This geopolitical concern could weaken the Euro further.


 


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