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GBP / CHF (GBPCHF)

DavidApol · 6 · 2779

DavidApol

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A Classic Bounce Play on GBPCHF

Looking at the daily chart, the pair has been consolidating for quite a while now. A strong area of resistance can be seen at 1.48218, wherein this level served both as a support and resistance for the price. The pair has failed to breach said level, which is also the current major resistance. Thus, it is anticipated for the pair to commence the downward trend.

To read the full recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research?menu=s-technicalreport&code=DAAP


MetisEtradePR

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The Bank of England kept the official bank rate at a record low as the stagnation in the Euro zone poses a threat to domestic growth. While some policy makers voted for a hike, the majority voted to keep the key rate steady at 0.5% yesterday. Waning momentum in the property market and in manufacturing can also be seen in the current quarter, compared to the strong upsurge at the start of the year. These softening data both from the Euro area and the UK could propel investors to look for a safer alternative such as the franc. The latter is after all considered the safe haven among the European currencies.

A medium-term short on GBPCHF is recommended. Entry could be after a break of immediate support at 1.53265, with the target price at 1.51617.


MetisEtradePR

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The BOE’s meeting minutes showed that officials voted 7-2 to maintain interest rates at record low 0.50%. UK’s inflation for the month of September is still below the central bank’s 2% target at 1.2% confirming that there is lack of evidence of potential inflationary pressure which could justify an interest rate hike.  The concern for a global slowdown also influenced the tone of the BOE to be more dovish. Given that the Euro zone is UK’s biggest trading partner, “mounting evidence of a loss of momentum in the Euro area” also strengthened the view that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates anytime soon.

Although Switzerland has close economic ties with Euro zone as well, the Swiss Franc has a reputation of being a safe-haven currency. The uncertainty in the Euro zone and the risk of a global slowdown could drive haven-demand.

A sell position in GBPCHF is recommended.


MetisEtradePR

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Support and Resistance Level

For the past year, GBPCHF has generally been moving in an uptrend. The currency pair recently touched the channel support of the long-term uptrend at 1.49731. There is a possibility that GBPCHF will rebound from this price level in pursuit of a continuation of the trend. A buy position is recommended at a confirmation of this trend continuation. Profit-taking should be done before the near resistance level at 1.49489 is reached.

Trend Indicators

The 10-week, 20-week and 50-week simple moving average of GBPCHF indicates that the currency pair has generally been moving in an uptrend for over a year. The 50-week simple moving average serves as a strong support level of the uptrend.

Oscillators

The 10-week, 20-week and 50-week simple moving average of GBPCHF indicates that the currency pair has generally been moving in an uptrend for over a year. The 50-week simple moving average serves as a strong support level of the uptrend.


MetisEtradePR

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Support and Resistance Level


GBPCHF has been consolidating for over four months. This consolidation appears to be forming a descending triangle chart pattern. The currency pair recently tested the channel resistance of the chart pattern formation at 1.53695. A sell position should be taken to take advantage of this. Profit-taking should be done before the near support level at 1.52148 is reached.

Trend Indicators

The 10-day (red line), 20-day (blue line) and 200-day (orange line) simple moving average of GBPCHF confirms the consolidation of the currency pair. The simple moving averages can serve as a near support level of the consolidation. The currency pair will most likely retest this near support level.

Oscillators

The relative strength index (RSI) of the GBPCHF four-hour chart confirms that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold. The RSI level is currently at 57.11. The currency pair recently broke the 60.0 RSI level confirming that it will most likely pursue a downtrend.


MetisEtradePR

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The Pound has been recovering from the Swiss Franc after the January 15 drop caused by the removal of the EURCHF peg. There is a possibility that the British Pound will appreciate against the Franc further as the Pound remains stronger than other European currencies. Tonight, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will make a speech before the Lords of Economic Affairs Committee. As a central bank head, his speech would most likely influence the British Pound as he has power over future monetary policy decisions. In the meeting last week, the BOE decided to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%. The decision marks the sixth year the central bank held rates at record-low. Recent growth in the economy raised speculations that the central bank will increase interest rates soon. Since low inflation remains a concern of the BOE, an improvement in the UK inflation would confirm these speculations. Inflation was reported to be at 0.30% last January. The February inflation rate will be released on March 24.


 


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