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Wisdom From People Who've Been There, Done That

Wills · 1024 · 128843

Wills

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its been a while since i got my dose of wisdom :D

Para sayo...


"I'd rather deal with a guy who has an IQ of 130 and thinks he has 125 than a guy with an IQ of 180 and thinks he has 200"

~Warren Buffett

Humility and knowing the edge of your competency!


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"I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you."

~ Charlie Munger


Those who keep learning, will keep rising in life!

Remember acquiring trivial information is far from learning.
« Last Edit: Feb 03, 2015, 12:11 PM by Wills »


bauer

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@wills,

Recently Berkshire sold all it stake in Exxon (the biggest oil company in the world).  Nothing wrong unless we knew that Berkshire bought it last 2013 only.

I thought before then that Buffett invests for the long haul?  What is happening?  old age getting in the way (hope not so much wisdom to share)


alacrity

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The more I read Nassim Taleb the less I think of Buffett.

What if Buffett was really just one lucky guy?

Imagine stock pickers as coin tossers, lined up under the blue Sunday sky, for them to move up they must call their tosses right either heads or tails. We all know this is 50/50, but eventually as the game progresses people with 10 straight correct calls feel that what happened wasn't fate, they get confident.

The tossers continue, until only a handful of players are left and these are the people who have 20 straight calls and these people go on to write books, make seminars and have various Forbes/WSJ articles dedicated to them. Eventually there will be 2 or 3 people who get to call 30 tosses right, he's venerated almost as a demi-god, they don't just write books, they HAVE books written ABOUT THEM.

The game progresses further until 1 or 2 are left and these people have called 40 tosses right, they are made case studies, books are written about them, but the books are too many to count. And then one coin tosser gets to come out with 50 right calls on the toss, and this one is regarded as godlike, regarded as THE ORACLE, the brightest of them all, people undergo pilgrimages just to see him, every word he says is gospel truth, because if he says that the angle of the sunlight matters, spin drift or even the Coriolis effect, academic papers will be written about it. What if Buffett was just the guy who managed to call 50 tosses right?

Took this little allegory from Fred Schwed.


Wills

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The more I read Nassim Taleb the less I think of Buffett.

What if Buffett was really just one lucky guy?

Imagine stock pickers as coin tossers, lined up under the blue Sunday sky, for them to move up they must call their tosses right either heads or tails. We all know this is 50/50, but eventually as the game progresses people with 10 straight correct calls feel that what happened wasn't fate, they get confident.

The tossers continue, until only a handful of players are left and these are the people who have 20 straight calls and these people go on to write books, make seminars and have various Forbes/WSJ articles dedicated to them. Eventually there will be 2 or 3 people who get to call 30 tosses right, he's venerated almost as a demi-god, they don't just write books, they HAVE books written ABOUT THEM.

The game progresses further until 1 or 2 are left and these people have called 40 tosses right, they are made case studies, books are written about them, but the books are too many to count. And then one coin tosser gets to come out with 50 right calls on the toss, and this one is regarded as godlike, regarded as THE ORACLE, the brightest of them all, people undergo pilgrimages just to see him, every word he says is gospel truth, because if he says that the angle of the sunlight matters, spin drift or even the Coriolis effect, academic papers will be written about it. What if Buffett was just the guy who managed to call 50 tosses right?

Took this little allegory from Fred Schwed.

Well what can you expect? There are only less than 10% in Graham's class that understands his lesson.
« Last Edit: Feb 22, 2015, 06:59 AM by Wills »


Wills

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@wills,

Recently Berkshire sold all it stake in Exxon (the biggest oil company in the world).  Nothing wrong unless we knew that Berkshire bought it last 2013 only.

I thought before then that Buffett invests for the long haul?  What is happening?  old age getting in the way (hope not so much wisdom to share)

Looks simple to me but I may be wrong, I think he found a more promising stock.


Edit:

Chanos said Exxon's fundamental is different now, replacing their reserves is getting more expensive than before.
« Last Edit: Feb 25, 2015, 11:03 AM by Wills »


Wills

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"In fact, the true investor welcomes volatility…because a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses. It is impossible to see how the availability of such prices can be thought of as increasing the hazards for an investor who is totally free to either ignore the market or exploit its folly."

~Warren Buffett


Wills

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“This is the cornerstone of our investment philosophy: Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.”


~Warren Buffett


Wills

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"Warren likes to say that there are no called strikes in investing. Strikes occur only when you swing and miss. When you’re at bat, you shouldn’t concern yourself with every pitch, nor should you regret good pitches that you don’t swing at. In other words, you don’t have to have an opinion about every stock or other investment opportunity, nor should you feel bad if a stock you didn’t pick goes up dramatically."


~Bill Gates
« Last Edit: Feb 26, 2015, 01:21 PM by Wills »


GIG

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"Warren likes to say that there are no called strikes in investing. Strikes occur only when you swing and miss. When you’re at bat, you shouldn’t concern yourself with every pitch, nor should you regret good pitches that you don’t swing at. In other words, you don’t have to have an opinion about every stock or other investment opportunity, nor should you feel bad if a stock you didn’t pick goes up dramatically."


~Bill Gates

This is what is happening to me right now. Bored to the hilt hehheehe!


GIG

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The more I read Nassim Taleb the less I think of Buffett.

What if Buffett was really just one lucky guy?

Imagine stock pickers as coin tossers, lined up under the blue Sunday sky, for them to move up they must call their tosses right either heads or tails. We all know this is 50/50, but eventually as the game progresses people with 10 straight correct calls feel that what happened wasn't fate, they get confident.

The tossers continue, until only a handful of players are left and these are the people who have 20 straight calls and these people go on to write books, make seminars and have various Forbes/WSJ articles dedicated to them. Eventually there will be 2 or 3 people who get to call 30 tosses right, he's venerated almost as a demi-god, they don't just write books, they HAVE books written ABOUT THEM.

The game progresses further until 1 or 2 are left and these people have called 40 tosses right, they are made case studies, books are written about them, but the books are too many to count. And then one coin tosser gets to come out with 50 right calls on the toss, and this one is regarded as godlike, regarded as THE ORACLE, the brightest of them all, people undergo pilgrimages just to see him, every word he says is gospel truth, because if he says that the angle of the sunlight matters, spin drift or even the Coriolis effect, academic papers will be written about it. What if Buffett was just the guy who managed to call 50 tosses right?

Took this little allegory from Fred Schwed.

I suggest you try reading the Superinvestostors of Graham and Doddsville. I feel the text really answers your query.


alacrity

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@GIG

Thanks, I'll go do that. Been so long since I touched Graham's books - Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis. I've read the Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville before, but I must have forgotten what it was about, I think a rereading is indeed long overdue.


Wills

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This is what is happening to me right now. Bored to the hilt hehheehe!

Hehehehe


cricky

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This is my quote:

"I am just a guy living a worthy life"

This is my wisdom:

"Generally want nothing when everything is at your disposal because when you want something specific it will drive you to do generally everything and in the end it will become nothing"


Wills

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How we got here - Warren Buffett

How I got here is pretty simple in my case. It’s not IQ, I’m sure you’ll be glad to hear. The big thing is rationality. I always look at IQ and talent as representing the horsepower of the motor, but that the output— the efficiency with which that motor works— depends on rationality.

A lot of people start out with 400- horsepower motors but only get a hundred horsepower of output. It’s way better to have a 200- horsepower motor and get it all into output. So why do smart people do things that interfere with getting the output they’re entitled to? It gets into the habits and character and temperament, and behaving in a rational manner. Not getting in your own way.

As I said, everybody here has the ability absolutely to do anything I do and much beyond. Some of you will, and some of you won’t. For the ones who won’t, it will be because you get in your own way, not because the world doesn’t allow you.


cricky

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Aside from IQ , for me it's also luck .


 


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