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Wills · 1019 · 121469

Wills

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OK gets ko na Sir.

Hindi pala tugma ang una kong take sa post mo hehe.


The problem is clearly for small people like us. If average ROE has remained at 40 or so, sooner or later the company will either slow down in growth or intensify acquisitional expansion to maintain it, both of which results in lower ROE. (Slower revenue growth = lower turnover = lower ROE; acquisitional expansion = risk of overpayment = higher assets = lower turnover = lower ROE.)


Thank You for this Sir!


Wills

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Yes, I'm aware Buffett is speaking from the viewpoint of "permanent capital", where he'd have no qualms owning a company for decades on end. The fact of the matter is, the purchase price ALWAYS determines the value you're going to get from the stock. They understand that and is a reason why they harp on "fair" or "average" price, not excessive price.

The problem with high P/E's is that the market -- the investing community -- also expects high growth from the company. Whether high P/E is excessive or not depends on the growth prospects surrounding that company, or at least speculations surrounding its near future. Benjamin Graham recommends 16x P/E as the ceiling, but from my experience, fixation on an immobile number results in missed opportunities. What you want is growth at a reasonable price (GARP, which is another form of value investing), or growth for free or at a discount (which is 16 PE and lower at a 6.25% discount rate, 10 PE and below at 10%, or 8.33 and below at 12%).

Let's say you have two companies. One trading at 30 PE, and the other at 17.

Growth prospects, again, MATTER. ROE is directly tied to the growth rate of the business? How so? Because a company must sustain a growth rate equal to its current ROE to maintain it over the long-term. For example, if ROE is 50% (as is the case in a small business in the Philippines), then an equity investment of P100,000 will be P150,000 after year 1. In year 2, to maintain 50% ROE, it must grow at the same percentage, with retained earnings going up from P50,000 to P75,000.

So let's say the 30 PE company has a 25% ROE (to reflect the stronger economic moat and the higher valuation by the market) and the 17 PE one has a more pathetic 12%. Assume EPS at 15. Obviously, 30 PE co. is priced at 450. The other one, at 255.

Over a five year period, if EPS grows at 25% a year, you'd have EPS of roughly 45.78. If PE remains the same, then the price is at 1373 -- 305% return or 25% a year. For the other company, EPS would be 26.44. Price would be 449 -- 76% return or 12% a year.

Now, what if this growth does not materialize at all? A very mature company with few growth prospects other than making acquisitions would have a very hard time growing at 25% a year to maintain this 25% ROE over the long run. And most exec officers are horrible investors, overpaying for other businesses to the extent they increase total assets and end up deflating ROE. If earnings growth was 15% instead of 25%, then you'd have an EPS of 30.17  by year 5. IF PE miraculously remains the same (which is a VERY BIG "IF" given that earnings growth is declining and failing to meet past expectations), then the current price is 905. A 200% return or 15% a year. Not the expected 25%. If PE happens to drop from 30 to 20, which is likely to be the case, the price would be a little bit over 600 -- 34% return or 6% a year. Eew.

On the other hand, if the smaller company surprises the market and ends up with 15% returns (remember that the assumption was 12% based on ROE), at the 17 PE the market might price this one at 513 -- 201% or 15% a year. If the PE rises to 20 (because it was beating growth expectations), the price would be 603 -- 237% return or 19% a year.

All because you paid a lower price!

What if you were buying stock in the meantime? You'd no doubt be accumulating shares, and at the same time, increasing your average cost per share. This dilutes your overall ROI from THAT one company. If your average cost per share in the second company rises from 255 to 350 over that five year period, your returns fall from cumulative 237% to 172%. A massive drop of 30%, because of the price you paid. As you can CLEARLY see, it doesn't matter if PE went up or down!

Let's put it in a 20 year period then. Inflation in the Phil's roughly 5%. EPS of 10, 5% growth rate, 20 years = 26.53 EPS after 20 years. PE of 10 = P100 at the beginning and P265 at the end. If the company happens to grow twice as fast over this time frame, you'd have 67.27 EPS after 20 years, and an ending price of 673 if the market doesn't adjust the PE multiple upwards. The rates of return are extremely high, of course, and are even higher if the market reappraises the company. If you happen to buy enough to have an average cost of P270 by two decades' end, you would've earned nothing at the first scenario. At the other, you would've made a cumulative 150%. One hell of a drop from the massive 570% you would've made had you stuck to one giant buy near the very beginning. Even if PE dropped to 8 just because of the market (let's say it's a 1.0 beta stock), then the price would be P538. At P100, that's a 438% return. At 270, that's 200%. In both cases (where PE falls by 2 points or it is unaffected at all), the difference between cost averaging and making all your purchases early and then holding it for the long run except possibly on major dips, is enormous. (150 percent is 74% less than 570; 200 percent is 54% less than 438; 438 percent is 23% less than 570.)

My point is, the absolute price you pay for a company determines everything. The results of this 5-year study can be extended to extremely long-term records of 20 or 30 years. Changes in market sentiment (the PE ratio) is obviously a small matter, because what matters is the future growth of the company. The PE is factored in as a proxy for expected growth, which you can compare against what you think the company can achieve over the long run.

After I realised lesson from this post I sold my position at MEG and MPI hehe. From now on I will never TIME the market and focus on One strategy only.


vicces

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@ vicces

Wow, srsly? Ano ung mga rason?
ooopps, erratum.. not Fitch, but S&P.. i think S&P revised their criteria or sumthin'... nadaanan lang ng mata ko yung headline sa bloomberg.. but real question is who's got more cred, berkshire or these credit rating agencies? anyway, here's the article..

http://bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/berkshire-hathaway-cut-by-s-p-as-rating-firm-revises-criteria.html

Berkshire Cut to AA by S&P as Ratings Firm Revises Criteria
By Noah Buhayar and Zachary Tracer
May 16, 2013 4:22 PM

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK/A) Hathaway Inc. had its credit grade lowered one level by Standard & Poor’s after the ratings firm revised its criteria for evaluating insurance holding companies.

Berkshire was cut to AA from AA+, S&P said today in a statement about the Omaha, Nebraska-based company. The ratings firm said its outlook on all of Berkshire’s ratings is negative.

“The lower credit rating on BRK better reflects our view of BRK’s dependence on its core insurance operations for most of its dividend income,” John Iten, an S&P analyst, said in the statement, referring to Buffett’s company by its stock ticker.

Berkshire held the highest credit rating from S&P, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service as recently as 2009. A plunging equity market following the 2008 financial crisis hurt the value of its stock portfolio and boosted liabilities on derivatives, leading to cuts by Moody’s and Fitch. The company was stripped of its last AAA rating in February 2010 by S&P after agreeing to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $26.5 billion.

Today’s cut brings S&P’s rating in line with Moody’s, which rates Berkshire Aa2. Fitch rates Buffett’s company one level lower. Berkshire is the largest shareholder in Moody’s parent Moody’s Corp. (MCO) Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment sent to an assistant.
Bond Markets

The downgrades haven’t hurt Berkshire’s standing in the bond markets. The company’s finance unit sold 5- and 30-year debt at its lowest coupons ever last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its $500 million of 4.3 percent bonds due May 2043 rose 0.7 cents at 9:53 a.m. in New York to trade at 99.25 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

The extra yield investors demand to hold the 30-year bond rather than government debt was 125 basis points, or 1.25 percentage points, Trace data show. That compares with a 144 basis-point spread on a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index for AA rated U.S. corporate debt maturing in 15 years or longer.

Berkshire’s Class A shares fell 1 percent to $167,303 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming their gain this year to 25 percent. That follows a 17 percent advance in 2012.

As Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer for more than four decades, Buffett, 82, built the firm from a textile maker into a company that sells insurance, hauls freight, generates electricity, manufactures chemicals and sells products from diamonds to underwear. The billionaire has used funds from insurance units including Geico to buy stocks and make acquisitions.
Insurance Operations

Berkshire’s non-insurance operating units, other than BNSF, typically don’t provide a significant portion of dividends to the holding company, Iten said. That makes the company dependent on insurance operations to meet obligations.

The new ratings criteria increased scrutiny of holding companies that own insurers, said Kevin Ahern, a managing director at S&P. At Berkshire, S&P was concerned that payments from insurance units to the holding company could be limited if the insurers face claims or suffer investment losses, he said. BNSF is owned by one of Berkshire’s insurers, making its payouts subject to regulatory oversight.

“There’s an element of risk, but I wouldn’t say that there’s a concern today that there’s going to be a regulatory chokehold,” Ahern said. If BNSF wasn’t held by an insurance unit, “we probably wouldn’t have this discussion.”
‘It’s Silly’

The concern that Berkshire could run short of funds to pay its obligations is overdone, said Jeff Matthews, a shareholder who has written books about Buffett. Berkshire had about $49 billion in cash at the end of March.

“It’s silly,” Matthews said in a phone interview. “If Buffett wanted a dividend from any one of his companies, he could pick up the phone and get it right now.”

S&P also cited the riskiness of Berkshire’s stock investments and questions over who will replace Buffett as reasons for the downgrade.

The billionaire has said his roles will be divided when he’s no longer leading Berkshire. The board has selected a candidate to succeed him as CEO, without identifying the person, he said in 2012. Investments will be overseen by Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, former hedge-fund managers who were hired in the past three years. Buffett has said his son, Howard, a Berkshire director since 1993, could be non-executive chairman.
Capital Concern

The negative outlook reflects the potential that a large acquisition or investment losses could drain capital, S&P said. It’s also tied to S&P’s negative outlook on the U.S. government’s rating, according to the statement.

Buffett and Jorge Paulo Lemann’s 3G Capital agreed in February to a deal to take ketchup maker HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ) private. Berkshire will get half the common equity for about $4 billion and preferred shares for another $8 billion. Debt issued for the deal won a record low coupon for similar-maturity and rated securities in March.

S&P published its revised ratings criteria for insurers last week. At the time, S&P said a majority of ratings would not change and that positive ratings actions would exceed negative ones.


Wills

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From www.Forbes.com
Warren Buffett: 7 New Bits of Wisdom for Your Life
By Brent Beshore
 
Warren Buffett speaking to a group of students from the Kansas University School of Business

Disclaimer: Warren Buffett is the person I try (largely unsuccessfully) to emulate the most. I find his transparency, thoughtfulness, generosity, principled approach, and general life philosophy to be sublime. In short, I’m a Buffett fanboy.

Every year, Warren Buffett writes a shareholder letter explaining his rationale, the company’s yearly performance, and what people should expect at the Berkshire annual meeting (aptly dubbed the “Woodstock of Capitalism”). Every year, it’s packed with insights, pithy sayings, and genuine wisdom. This year’s letter is no different. Here are my highlights and takeaways, as well as a few ways you can implement his strategies in your life.

1. It’s ALWAYS about fundamentals: In what many have called a series of strange decisions, Berkshire has started acquiring newspapers. Why? Because the fundamentals make sense. “News, to put it simply, is what people don’t know that they want to know. And people will seek their news — what’s important to them — from whatever sources provide the best combination of immediacy, ease of access, reliability, comprehensiveness and low cost,” as Buffett says. Decisions don’t always have to make sense to others, but they must make sense to you. Understand the fundamentals, and everything else will fall into place.

2. Optionality creates opportunity: Optionality is your ability to choose a successful path from an assortment of potential choices. The more options you have, the greater your ability to select a beneficial one. “Because we operate in so many areas of the economy, we enjoy a range of choices far wider than that open to most corporations. In deciding what to do, we can water the flowers and skip over the weeds,” the letter explains. Debt, a lack of imagination, or being overly niched removes optionality. Diversification, savings, and an open mind increase optionality. More options are better than fewer options.

 
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3. Fantasy vs. reality: You can’t wish yourself into a better position. As Buffett would tell you, “Wishing makes dreams come true only in Disney movies; it’s poison in business.” You have made mistakes. You have debts. You have regrets. We all do. Ignoring bills, personal defects, or business facts won’t change them. Own them, learn from them, work hard at getting better, and move on to a better life.

4. Risk mitigation ensures sleep and survival: Risk is tricky. It is necessary (except in arbitrage situations) to produce returns, but too much ultimately leads to complete destruction. “Charlie and I believe in operating with many redundant layers of liquidity, and we avoid any sort of obligation that could drain our cash in a material way. That reduces our returns in 99 years out of 100,” Buffet says. “But we will survive in the 100th while many others fail. And we will sleep well in all 100.” Take what Nassim Taleb calls the “antifragile approach” by being extremely risky, allowing you to be able to afford to lose (and earn big returns), while always maintaining a highly risk-averse base.

5. Excellence always beats a bargain: While there are certainly exceptions, in the long run, bargains never outperform solid investments. “More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price,” Buffett says. This simple, yet powerful, principle can be applied to virtually every area of life. Diets, discounts, dishonesty, bargains, and shortcuts can work well for a while, but they’re never sustainable.

6. Consistently play the game: Berkshire’s “secret” is actually no secret at all. Sound strategy, based on fundamentals, executed consistently, produces excellent results. It’s not sexy. It’s not trendy. It just works, every single time. “Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of ‘experts,’ or the ebb and flow of business activity,” Buffett maintains. “The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.”

7. Embrace uncertainty, gain clarity: Life is not immediately certain, and that’s okay. Buffett explains, “Every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.” Uncertainty creates variety and opportunity. Instead of looking at uncertainty as a point of anxiety, embrace it and, in doing so, you’ll gain clarity and create far more certainty in the future. Buffett says:

 “A thought for my fellow CEOs: Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the unknown since 1776. It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful). American business will do fine over time.”

I don’t consider Warren Buffett’s greatest contribution to be his unbelievable investment track record or incredibly generous philanthropic contributions. His greatest gift to humanity is a well-documented life, proving that integrity, transparency, hard work, and continual learning lead to a life worth living.


freefront

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@Wills--- your #1. Acquiring Newspapers- I would have thought that this industry is going to bite the dust soon. At least, the physical newspaper. Almost everything is duplicated online already. Right? 


L3

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After I realised lesson from this post I sold my position at MEG and MPI hehe. From now on I will never TIME the market and focus on One strategy only.

Umaygad! i have both meg and mpi.. sir Wills care to share the reason why? thanks


Wills

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Umaygad! i have both meg and mpi.. sir Wills care to share the reason why? thanks
Naku Sir L3 wag niyo siryosohin yung stock picks ko.

May basihan ako kung bakit yun ang desisyon ko, I found a company with high returns and cheaper. The only reason I bought MEG and MPI is for speculative purposes only(bull run kasi) I drop it na lang since I realised na hindi wise move iyon for me.


L3

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^

ah akala ko me alam ka na hindi maganda sa funda ng 2 puro long term ko kc to.

anong company kaya yang cheaper na yan  :D


Wills

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Sir nabili mo ba stocks mo thru tip? Or you are using FA?


L3

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not tip sir. i use my very own unreliable FA, five-year forecast on real estate (for meg) or infras project (for mpi), company itself, who the person behind (tan, manny). some are rumors, news, from other persons in the forum pero mostly sa mga to subject for analysis ko pa rin. tama ba tong gnagawa ko? i first heard megaworld when i am a college stud in iloilo. i also want a conglomerate so i select mpi kc un lng kaya ko sa ngayon. ang problema ko lng hindi ako marunog kumuha ng PE, EPS, ROE. ung bang mas mahal pa pala ang P5 price ng company kaysa P20 ng isang company. eto ang gusto ko sanang pag aralan nakalimutan ko lang pano ulit gagawin. hindi kc nakikinig sa seminar sa col  :D . i hope walang mali sa kind ng analysis na ginagawa ko. painput na lng po kung my kailangan talagang baguhin  :thankyou:


alx

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kaya pala downtrend MEG. laki siguro nilabas mo sir?

kidding aside, I am enjoying this  very informative thread. keep on posting sirs..


rds

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not tip sir. i use my very own unreliable FA, five-year forecast on real estate (for meg) or infras project (for mpi), company itself, who the person behind (tan, manny). some are rumors, news, from other persons in the forum pero mostly sa mga to subject for analysis ko pa rin. tama ba tong gnagawa ko? i first heard megaworld when i am a college stud in iloilo. i also want a conglomerate so i select mpi kc un lng kaya ko sa ngayon. ang problema ko lng hindi ako marunog kumuha ng PE, EPS, ROE. ung bang mas mahal pa pala ang P5 price ng company kaysa P20 ng isang company. eto ang gusto ko sanang pag aralan nakalimutan ko lang pano ulit gagawin. hindi kc nakikinig sa seminar sa col  :D . i hope walang mali sa kind ng analysis na ginagawa ko. painput na lng po kung my kailangan talagang baguhin  :thankyou:

you can do 5 year forecast of the company, you mean their potential earning? that's great!

yung PE, EPS at ROE would be very easy. Just go to PSE, bloomberg, COL etc. website and look for "no. of shares outstanding".

EPS (Earnings per share) = company's profit / no. of shares
PE (Price per earnings) = price (current) / EPS
ROE (Return on Equity) = earnings / shareholder's funds - in %


bauer

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Makikisabat..

What can you say about berk's credit rating downgrade by fitch last night... Everyone was like, #WTF?!

S & P had a very valid point in their credit rating downgrade i believe.  First, long term management outlook, Sino papalit kina Buffett at Munger when they die?

Second point, over reliance ng berkshire sa dividend income ng kanilang insurance business which makes up more than 60% of their income.  Remember, yung mga acquired companies mostly hindi nagbibigay ng dividend income.

Third point, well less substantial due to macro outlook, downgraded ang US as an economy and as a government, so generally speaking, all companies operating under its jurisdiction should carry some risks.  Ito hindi kontrolado ng berkshire.


bauer

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The Non-Entrepreneur's Guide to Startup Funding
Brent Beshore
Contributor
  I don’t consider Warren Buffett’s greatest contribution to be his unbelievable investment track record or incredibly generous philanthropic contributions. His greatest gift to humanity is a well-documented life, proving that integrity, transparency, hard work, and continual learning lead to a life worth living.


Quite true.

all retail investors be forewarned:  Buffett's investment philosophy is applicable only in America, not in our country. 

Buffett's investment decisions is good for HIS COMPANY.  It is not necessarily good for small investors like us.  It is not wise to follow the herd.

I do not dislike Buffett.  In fact, it is about him that i decided to concentrate on stock investment.  But after several years, he is an apple and we are mangoes.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2013, 03:33 PM by bauer »


lemreyes

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all retail investors be forewarned:  Buffett's investment philosophy is applicable only in America, not in our country. 
Why do you say that it is not applicable in the Philippines?
What kind of investment philosophy would be more suited here?


 


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