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equities_engineer · 51 · 29008


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on: Jan 23, 2012, 01:51 AM
I wish to seek you advice on how would PCOR fare this year (2012) based on the following variables:
1. recent sell out of the company's shares, 695.3 million shares at P11 each.
2. US-Iran feud, the price of oil would most likely stay above the $100/barrel level
3. Philippine Politics regarding oil deregulation, transport groups protesting, etc.
4. Petron Corporation being owned (majority) by San Miguel Corporation (Owned by Cojuangco, uncle of Noynoy )

Currently, the stock ranges from 11.3 to 11.5. Would it reach the 19 level like in 2011?

Your 2-cents are highly appreciated.
« Last Edit: Aug 30, 2012, 03:23 PM by FutureGizmo »


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Reply #1 on: Jan 24, 2012, 12:11 AM

I don't share a 2 cents worth because it's worthless in today's inflation.  but here's my take,

1. The company shares were sold by the employees retirement fund because they need the money elsewhere (definitely not in PETRON, kasi nagbenta nga di ba?).  I think they made a lot of money.

2. US-IRAN feud has nothing beneficial for PETRON.  Remember, US-IRAN are BOTH oil producing countries while PETRON is an OIL REFINING business.  oil production is HIGHLY PROFITABLE but oil refining has a margin of 2-5% only!

3. Philippine politics trying their hands on oil refining???? BAD for business except if we go back to a MONOPOLY period (highly unlikely).

4. PETRON owned by San Miguel..... It's a big joke! San Miguel will squeeze some money OUT of PETRON (it's not San Miguel will rescue PETRON in case of liquidity tightening).

please try to check PETRON's IPO price (you will be surprise about your 19 target).


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Reply #2 on: Mar 08, 2012, 12:25 PM
Petron earnings buoyed by price hikes

OIL REFINER Petron Corp. ended 2011 with a 7.6% profit growth as flat volume sales were offset by higher selling prices, the company said in a statement yesterday.

Petron’s net income rose to P8.5 billion in 2011 from P7.9 billion the year previous.

The firm said it posted strong results despite a 5% drop in the total industry demand for petroleum which was affected by high oil prices.

Its revenues grew 19.6% to P274 billion from P229.1 billion in 2010 mainly due “to the rise in export sales and recovery of regional product cracks.”

“Petron was able to mitigate the demand contraction and outperformed its two closest competitors. Petron’s sales volume remained flat while its rivals suffered volume losses,” the company said in its statement.

Its sales volume for 2010 was recorded at 43.1 million barrels.

“We have been able to sustain our growth momentum despite a year wherein we saw contraction in local sales due to higher product prices. While our core business remains robust, we are seeing more contributions from higher margin petrochemicals,” Ramon S. Ang, Petron chairman and chief executive said.

Petron claimed to corner a 38% share in the market and said it led in all major market segments. Petron closed 2011 with 1,900 retail stations.

Mr. Ang said as part of its growth, the firm invested $2 billion for the upgrades to its Bataan refinery. The refinery will allow Petron to process a wider array of crude oil.

It is expected to in commercial operation by the second quarter of 2014.

“The company is also expected to generate significant savings once the new power plant at the Bataan refinery is completed,” it said. -- Emilia Narni J. David


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Reply #3 on: Mar 19, 2012, 01:36 PM
Petron to buy remaining Esso Malaysia shares

THE INTERNATIONAL ARM of Petron Corp. will take over the remaining shares in Esso Malaysia Berhad after buying majority shares in the firm, the company disclosed to the bourse Monday.

Petron Oil & Gas International Sdn Bhd served a notice to the Esso Malaysia board for the “mandatory take-over offer to acquire 94,500,000 shares representing approximately 35% of total voting shares” of the company with an indicative offer price of 3.50 ringgit per share.

The offer was triggered by the Petron Oil & Gas acquisition of 65% of Esso Malaysia’s voting shares late last year.

Esso Malaysia is a unit of oil giant ExxonMobil. -- Emilia Narni J. David


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Reply #4 on: Mar 29, 2012, 10:38 AM
Petron keen on Esso Thailand

OIL FIRM Petron Corp. yesterday aired interest in acquiring another Southeast Asian unit of ExxonMobil Corp. to strengthen its financial position.

“Last year, there were talks that Esso (Thailand) Pcl. is available for sale because of the interest expressed by PTT [Pcl.] or Thai Oil,” Petron President Eric O. Recto told reporters in a chance interview yesterday.

“If it does become available, we will look at it,” Mr. Recto said.

This, after Petron’s international arm acquired last year ExxonMobil’s three Malaysian units for $610 million.

Petron Oil & Gas International Sdn. Bhd. then began a tender offer to acquire 94,500,000 shares representing the remaining 35% of total voting shares.

The deal was valued at $610 million.

Mr. Recto would not say if Petron will seek a majority stake in Esso Thailand.

Esso Thailand is 87.5% owned by ExxonMobil and 12.5% owned by the Thai Ministry of Finance. It is listed in the Thai Stock Exchange.

It has a refining capacity of 177,000 barrels per day and owns about 535 retail gas stations in Thailand according to the company Web site.

Thai Oil Pcl., a unit of PTT, has shown interest in buying a stake in Esso Thailand.

Mr. Recto said such foreign acquisitions will benefit the firm more in terms of boosting finances.

“It will affect the Philippine business from a financial standpoint. We will be able to consolidate the financial performance of Esso Malaysia to Petron,” Mr. Recto said.

He clarified, however, that such acquisitions are unlikely to result in operational synergies.

“From a logistics standpoint [it will not impact] very much. It is a good stand-alone business,” said Mr. Recto.

Petron had said it will expand the refining capacity of Esso Malaysia and “increase profitability of the operations.”

The company will also raise an additional P8 billion for the expansion of its existing 70-megawatt power plant in Limay, Bataan.

Mr. Recto said the P8 billion will double the capacity of the power plant which provides power to its Bataan oil refinery.

Petron saw its net income grow 7.6% to P8.5 billion in 2011 from P7.9 billion the year previous.

Shares of Petron closed at P10.14 yesterday, up 1.6% from its previous close of P9.98 apiece. -- ENJD


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Reply #5 on: Apr 02, 2012, 10:21 AM
Recommendation: Buy

LOCAL brokerage A&A Securities, Inc. has advised investors to include Petron Corp. shares in their portfolios, citing the company’s plan to acquire another Southeast Asian unit of ExxonMobil Corp.

“Petron’s interest in acquiring [another] Southeast Asian unit of ExxonMobil Corp. is good news [and will] strengthen the stock’s trading activity,” said trader Jeng T. Calma in an e-mail.

Petron President Eric O. Recto said last week the firm was eyeing to buy Esso (Thailand) Pcl. after acquiring three Malaysian units of the ExxonMobil Corp.

Ms. Calma placed Petron’s support at P10 per share and resistance at P12 apiece. The stock was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.92 times, higher than the market’s 18 times.

Petron shares ended the week at P10.22 per share, P0.12 weaker than the previous close of P10.34 per share.

“Since it will be a long weekend due to Holy Week, the market will be slow,” Ms. Calma said. — Daniel Anne N. Rodriguez


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Reply #6 on: Apr 18, 2012, 11:06 AM
Petron wins P600-M tax case

THE SUPREME Court (SC) has prohibited the Bureau of Internal Revenue from collecting over P600 million in alleged excise tax deficiencies from Petron Corp.

In a decision promulgated on March 21, the high court’s Second Division upheld the Court of Tax Appeals’ (CTA) 2008 full court decision, which favored Petron by reversing a 2007 ruling directing it to pay excise taxes worth P600,769,353.95 for taxable years 1995-1998.

The case stemmed from the bureau’s issuance of a tax assessment in 2002 against Petron, demanding it to pay P739,003,036 worth of excise tax liabilities and surcharges for 1995-1998.

This, as tax credit certificates (TCC) Petron acquired from 10 accredited companies and used to pay liabilities during that period were cancelled by the Finance department.

The department said these TCCs were “fraudulently issued and transferred”, thus prompting the tax bureau to demand payment from Petron anew.

But Petron argued that the TCCs assigned to it had been examined and approved by the Finance department, the Board of Investment, and the two bureaus.

“The liability clause in the TCCs provides only for the solidary liability of the transferee relative to its transfer in the event it is a party to the fraud,” the CTA en banc had stated.

It also said that it found that Petron “had no participation in or knowledge of the fraudulent issuance and transfer of the subject TCCs.”

Deciding on the case, the SC affirmed the CTA en banc’s decision and denied the internal revenue bureau’s petition for lack of merit.

“Not finding merit...we affirm the ruling of the CTA En Banc finding that Petron is a transferee in good faith and for value of the subject TCCs,” the SC’s decision read. -- Aubrey E. Barrameda


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Reply #7 on: Aug 29, 2012, 04:59 PM
Looks like the engulfing pattern created last week has signaled PCOR holders to watch out for the fall. Today's candlestick is not an indicator of reversal after last week so I think this will continue to dip or go sideways. If in case there is a rally, sell on strength. But it depends on where you are right now. COL has called a sell on strength recommendation.


The Engulfing Pattern on PCOR


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Reply #8 on: Sep 09, 2012, 06:51 PM
PCOR went down following the Engulfing Pattern we saw last August 24 (The Engulfing pattern on PCOR). Last Thursday we saw a surge in price but not supported by good volume. Then the following day we saw a long legged doji. Doji usually means indecision among bulls and bears. Large green candlestick followed by a doji doesn't make a lot of sense so be careful. For me, I am still bearish about this.


PCOR’s move

« Last Edit: Sep 09, 2012, 06:54 PM by pmtmember »


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Reply #9 on: Sep 17, 2012, 04:41 PM
Interesting candlesticks for PCOR. Last Friday it looked like a shooting star then today we are seeing a hanging man. Both candlesticks are considered bearish (after confirmation) if they are found at the top of the uptrend. Just take extra caution on this. RSI or the Relative Strength Index is already above 70. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.


Be careful


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Reply #10 on: Sep 20, 2012, 04:30 PM
Looks like the Shooting Star and Hanging Man we saw few days ago (Be careful) were an unstoppable foe for the bulls. After the two candles, the trend reverses and now it is going down. But this should be a good sign for us to start accumulating soon. Let us watch the succeeding candlesticks and other indicators to time in our entry. Caveat as always.

It will rise soon


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Reply #11 on: Sep 23, 2012, 10:41 PM
Looks like a failed breakout attempt on PCOR, from the area pattern.

Will it finally breakout this week?



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Reply #12 on: Jan 29, 2013, 07:08 PM
Is there anyone who had an idea regarding PCOR's Preliminary Offering of Dollar Denominated Capital Securities?

Seems this is the reason why the company's retirement plan sold shares for future subscription of this capital securities..

ARE THEY CONNECTED EVENTS?.. just only my wild idea.


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Reply #13 on: Feb 15, 2013, 08:08 AM
hi, abit out of topic. i am interested in Petron Preferred Stock. but i can't seem to find the original offer price was it 100php or 110? My objective is a modest 10% in 2 years time. so i was thinking of putting majority of the funds in preferred stocks. and the rest sa mga blue chips.


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Reply #14 on: May 22, 2013, 12:01 AM
any update about this stock?


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