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Key drivers of growth for 2012?

akira0422 · 45 · 7914

akira0422

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on: Dec 21, 2011, 11:52 AM
Three Areas I consider to be Key drivers of growth next year -2012

1. Mining
2. Energy
3. Tourism

On Mining: I am betting on PX, LC/B and AT which ever is dropping most in proces
On Energy: Mer and AP I personally like AP , but MER looks more promising, everything they do seems to make money. EDC is also a contender if we talk growth.
On Tourism: AGI- theres only one listed firm that has changed the tourism industry here, and is capitalizing on its yoy growth.

This thread is mainly for discussion, critcism and swots of the securities that you think will be driving 2012s growth, and profitability...
Everything comment is most welcomed.

Seriously, I guess its really time to focus on core profit and growth driven stocks. :thankyou:


« Last Edit: Dec 21, 2011, 12:46 PM by FutureGizmo »


singkit_1588

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Reply #1 on: Dec 21, 2011, 12:53 PM
"Key drivers of growth for 2012"??

does this mean you expect this industry to grow in 2012?

how about their stock price?..
with full of uncertainty in global market, which industry will be less affected?..

TIA


allanmm13

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Reply #2 on: Dec 21, 2011, 01:38 PM
with full of uncertainty in global market, which industry will be less affected?..
Utilities like Infrastructure, Power , Water, kahit recession hindi tumitigil gumamit ang tao nito.


akira0422

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Reply #3 on: Dec 22, 2011, 11:00 AM
cant believe i lost all i wrote.... damn this tatoo...


finance123

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Reply #4 on: Dec 22, 2011, 11:47 AM
The key driver is corruption..


lupin

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Reply #5 on: Dec 22, 2011, 11:56 AM
The key driver is corruption..

hahaha, growth to perdition?


akira0422

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Reply #6 on: Dec 23, 2011, 11:19 AM
heheheheh. corruption it is.....

ahhhhhhh.... im so in vacation mode............... anyway heres an exerp....

on this view, i guess the reason for choosing this 3 sectors are the ff:
1. there has been some shift in phil lately, credits are getting bettr , and that despite billions of hot money has been pulled, our markets stood with great resiliency, and that this is being fueled by local investors.
2. we have better fundamentals, better reserves and even better outlook at some point, etc...
3. Services sector seemed not a way to go for next year because of excessivve copetition and prices securing to be the most competitive seemed the trend. to add a lot of companys declaring as early as now a decline in proft in 2012.
4. property seems to be in a bubble. prices of supplies (includes land, etc), construction material, man power cost is rising. though demand will continue to rise, the supply currently though ample is out of reach, especially for mid income individuals who wants the families nestled in a condo or a cozy subdivision. i guess a lot of you have already observed it , one way or another.
5. Since Property has its weakness most definitely it would affect its counterpart in the banking sector. Though it remains to be strong and ratios esp, the bad debts are improving, a slowdown in property business might cause a slowdown in banking.
6. on the other tourism is growing in the phil at around 20% yoy. if thats not enough- well just take a look at bora, the 2nd top in asia, one of the top in destination in the world, has been growing and breaking barriers yoy. with some great devt already underway, like the airports, etc. it will not be long that we will see it as a bigger player in tourism here. AGI owns literally more than 10% of the island, newcoast is also underway. not to mention the game changer- Resorts world.
7. phl is literalyy a POWER HUNGRY country- (this is greatly observed during elections. XD) no need for further explanation on this, and i think the best companies to benefit from its consumption growth is MER at the north and AP with its power generation in luzvimin. although profits were affected by soft market prices this year, i think they can easily rebound given the rising demand. 
8. If really there going to be a euro crisis, gold will shine, and so does the gold miners.

XD


kiko2007

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Reply #7 on: Dec 23, 2011, 05:10 PM
gold price is dropping. still an enigma how gold moves nowadays.

finance sector will shine. PERA law, positive outlook, high trust ratings.. and my guess is remittance will again hit record high.


finance123

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Reply #8 on: Dec 24, 2011, 01:33 AM
I am interested in companies engage in infrastructure and power. Also companies that would benefit because of increased in consumption.


Mining companies aren't cheap. Many mining companies in the Philippines sell nickel.
According to economists, nickel price will soften. I don't know for gold, copper or silver. Philippine mining companies are so dependent on CHINA.





bauer

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Reply #9 on: Dec 26, 2011, 09:30 AM
key drivers of growth in 2012?

When the big boys starts to 'hype up' the market then i'll have to be ready to push the 'sell' button.


akira0422

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Reply #10 on: Dec 26, 2011, 09:30 AM
by the way-- soem new devts on property section//// more like a bsps view: that property prices has not reached bubble levels like in china... this is actually gud news...
i agree with the finance sector, though im very selective with banks. I like UBP for some personal reasons and their devt. it looks like everyone in this bank will get their PS afterall--- ive seen them break another milestone again... but very low profile this bank.... that y i like it.... thtas just me sharing my rants.....
infra will definetley make its mark if the 16 ppp projects is hastned.. XD


joconcepcion

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Reply #11 on: Dec 26, 2011, 11:41 AM
heheheheh. corruption it is.....

ahhhhhhh.... im so in vacation mode............... anyway heres an exerp....

on this view, i guess the reason for choosing this 3 sectors are the ff:
1. there has been some shift in phil lately, credits are getting bettr , and that despite billions of hot money has been pulled, our markets stood with great resiliency, and that this is being fueled by local investors.
2. we have better fundamentals, better reserves and even better outlook at some point, etc...
3. Services sector seemed not a way to go for next year because of excessivve copetition and prices securing to be the most competitive seemed the trend. to add a lot of companys declaring as early as now a decline in proft in 2012.
4. property seems to be in a bubble. prices of supplies (includes land, etc), construction material, man power cost is rising. though demand will continue to rise, the supply currently though ample is out of reach, especially for mid income individuals who wants the families nestled in a condo or a cozy subdivision. i guess a lot of you have already observed it , one way or another.
5. Since Property has its weakness most definitely it would affect its counterpart in the banking sector. Though it remains to be strong and ratios esp, the bad debts are improving, a slowdown in property business might cause a slowdown in banking.
6. on the other tourism is growing in the phil at around 20% yoy. if thats not enough- well just take a look at bora, the 2nd top in asia, one of the top in destination in the world, has been growing and breaking barriers yoy. with some great devt already underway, like the airports, etc. it will not be long that we will see it as a bigger player in tourism here. AGI owns literally more than 10% of the island, newcoast is also underway. not to mention the game changer- Resorts world.
7. phl is literalyy a POWER HUNGRY country- (this is greatly observed during elections. XD) no need for further explanation on this, and i think the best companies to benefit from its consumption growth is MER at the north and AP with its power generation in luzvimin. although profits were affected by soft market prices this year, i think they can easily rebound given the rising demand. 
8. If really there going to be a euro crisis, gold will shine, and so does the gold miners.

XD

Thanks to Former President GMA!
as a economist, na stable nya ang economy, pero marami pa rin ang mahirap... sana ituloy ni Pnoy ang nasimulan.. yan lang po.
:applause:


bauer

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Reply #12 on: Dec 26, 2011, 11:11 PM
i agree with the finance sector, though im very selective with banks. I like UBP for some personal reasons and their devt. it looks like everyone in this bank will get their PS afterall--- ive seen them break another milestone again... but very low profile this bank.... that y i like it.... thtas just me sharing my rants.....
 

i'm waiting for ubp to break 80 a pop this 2012


finance123

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Reply #13 on: Dec 27, 2011, 12:05 AM
Among the commercial banks UBP has the lowest loan to deposit ratio less than .60 and it trade slightly above its book value.

In terms of book value cheaper ang RCBC and BPI is the most expensive.

If you want double exposure to real estate and banking - Filinvest Development Corp (almost 90% of income derived from real estate (filinvest land) and banking (eastwestbank). In terms of price to book value it is cheap but its debt to equity is like 2x. Fundamentally, I don't like FDC because of its debt ratio.

Exposure to Banking and Power: ABOITIZ EQUITY VENTURES

70% Income derived from Power (Aboitiz Power) + 20% Financial Services (Unionbank) and the rest from their food business.

MY CURRENT PORTFOLIO INDUSTRY/SECTOR ALLOCATION

45% Property
53% ENERGY AND POWER
2%  BANKING

My stockpick for 2012 is MetroPacific.







TSO

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Reply #14 on: Dec 27, 2011, 02:27 AM
Quote
4. property seems to be in a bubble. prices of supplies (includes land, etc), construction material, man power cost is rising. though demand will continue to rise, the supply currently though ample is out of reach, especially for mid income individuals who wants the families nestled in a condo or a cozy subdivision. i guess a lot of you have already observed it , one way or another.
5. Since Property has its weakness most definitely it would affect its counterpart in the banking sector. Though it remains to be strong and ratios esp, the bad debts are improving, a slowdown in property business might cause a slowdown in banking.

...damn. This confirms my dad's observation of residential real estate.

Well... thank you. :D


 


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