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mikoangelo · 12 · 3233

mikoangelo

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on: Oct 27, 2011, 09:46 PM
Di ko alm san post e,so I decided to create one.... :harhar:

As of this writing,Dow is up 240 ... :thumbsup2

And all I can see is all green... :yehey:

Exciting day tomorrow..goodluck  satin  :thumbsup2 :thumbsup2
« Last Edit: Nov 19, 2012, 01:42 AM by FutureGizmo »


dinaren

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Reply #1 on: Oct 29, 2011, 03:48 AM
Although i have positions in the market, im still a bit pessimistic about this European resolution and the overall world economy. Reasons are:

1. I think the recent Eurozone resolution is just a band aid solution and the crisis will not go away soon. They only made a quick blueprint but the big question is: WILL IT WORK? Planning is easy, the hard part is the implementation. Parang minadali eh. Also i feel that the stock market rally gets so much ahead of itself.

2. Eurozone agreed that (50%)write off by the banks is only voluntary. Meaning they cant force the banks to do it. What if other banks will not agree to write off Greek's debts? Again, implementation will be a problem.

3. The threat of contagion is still there, particularly big countries such as Italy and Spain and most analysts have said it will still get worse.

4. US consumer confidence is falling, and its jobs data sucks (Layoffs here and there).

5. China is thought to be in the middle of a property bubble and is thought to be due for a hard landing unless they do something about it.

Overall, lots of uncertainties. Sorry to say this but, I think 2012 will not be a good year for the stock market. Opinion lang po.

Advanced Happy halloween everyone! :hello:


techboy46

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Reply #2 on: Oct 29, 2011, 04:24 PM
For the investor point of view it may not be a good outlook, but since I am a forex speculator I dont care much about the economy of certain country, as an speculator I can profit whichever their currency decide to go.


bauer

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Reply #3 on: Oct 31, 2011, 04:17 PM
Dinaren,

Your concerns about the financial problems in the global environment is very real.  However, these financial troubles will be here in the next few years.  Opportunities abounds whether economies are good or bad, it is only through careful study and preparation that you can navigate successfully. 

You cannot find calm waters in the open seas since life started.


dinaren

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Reply #4 on: Nov 01, 2011, 01:42 AM
@ bauer- tama ka dyan. When i said "2012 will not be a good year for stocks" that doesnt mean i'll go away and forget about the market. In fact, ill be there like a shark circling a sinking ship in the middle of the ocean.. patiently waiting for "opportunities".. he he..


TSO

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Reply #5 on: Nov 01, 2011, 01:58 AM
Can you guys tell me what you think of this:

Quote
Possibly the most significant consequence of the EU bailouts last week will be that the “solutions” to the problems in Europe will result in a global credit crunch. To me this outcome is a foregone conclusion. It's already happening.

The agreements give the EU banks till June 2012 to recapitalize. There are only two possible outcomes. (A) Either the banks sell more common and preferred shares to the public, or (B) they improve their capital ratios by de-leveraging.

It’s simply not possible to sell more shares. The costs (in the form of dilution or 10+% Preferred dividends) make this option a dead end. So the banks will have to get smaller.

 

Some data points on this from Thompson Reuters Loan Pricing Report today:

- French banks have been notably absent from high-profile EMEA loans including the US$6bn loan for commodity trader Xstrata and a $4.7 billion loan for Qatar's Barzan project financing.

- In Asia, NP Paribas pulled out of an A$2.075 billion (US$2.14bn) refinancing for Australian media company Seven West after being shortlisted as one of the leads.

- In the US, Societe Generale declined to participate in a $15 billion, 364-day bridge loan for United Technologies Corp.

- The $6 billion loan for commodities trader Xstrata had no commitments from BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Intesa and ING.

"Banks structuring deals are mindful of the reduced demand for dollars - you have to factor in a big drop in appetite from French and Germans." a senior banker said.

The syndicated loan market is not falling apart. At least not yet. Other big lenders have stepped into the hole left by the EU banks. Spreads have widened a bit, they will get wider still. The question is whether credit will dry up in the months ahead. I think it will.

I’m convinced that zero interest rates are adding to the problem of liquidity in the US (and therefore globally). Every month money funds get smaller. More and more money is being put on the side. MM loan funds used to buy up big chunks of deals like the 365 day UT deal. Not any longer.

I have no support from economists in my conclusion that ZERO % = ZERO RISK. In fact, the vast majority of deep thinkers (and most importantly Bernanke) believe that ZIRP is the only path to consider.

My conclusion is that the dual forces of the EU bank asset sales and perpetual ZIRP are going to bring us a very nasty credit crunch. It will be global. Given that the clock on the EU bank recaps runs out in 8 months I would expect to see clear evidence of a crunch by year-end. (Does someone have a quote for “turn of the year” LIBOR?)

Post Merge: Nov 01, 2011, 01:59 AM
Oops forgot to post the source.

Crunch Time


mikoangelo

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Reply #6 on: Nov 03, 2011, 09:04 PM
ECB cuts rates to 1.25 percent in surprise move

(Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent on Thursday as the euro zone's worsening debt crisis outweighed the concern over persistently high inflation.

The ECB also reduced the interest rate on its deposit facility to 0.5 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility to 2.0 percent.

ECB President Mario Draghi will explain the Governing Council's decision at a 1330 GMT news conference -- his first at a monetary policy meeting after taking over the reins on Tuesday from Jean-Claude Trichet.

The cut marked a change in policy course after the ECB increased its rates in July and April, when it became the first major central bank to hike after the intensification of the financial crisis. Markets are now looking for hints whether the ECB is preparing to cut rates again next month.

Attention will also focus on other changes in the central bank's policy after the change of guard, especially whether its government bond program will be boosted.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-ecb-rates-idUSTRE7A23LX20111103



Post Merge: Nov 03, 2011, 09:10 PM
Expecting another rally after the  bloodbath
« Last Edit: Nov 03, 2011, 09:10 PM by mikoangelo »


ferrariEverest

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Reply #7 on: Nov 03, 2011, 09:25 PM
ECB cutting rates is not a surprise.
magpapalit na kasi ng ECB chief


bauer

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Reply #8 on: Nov 03, 2011, 09:34 PM
italian ang bagong ECB chief and Italy is also in the middle of the crisis.  Watch for this chief how he moves that will influence the fate of his country.


gramos

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Reply #9 on: Nov 19, 2012, 12:23 AM
How can I go around investing in a foreign market? Can you recommend a platform to use?


bzboi

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Reply #10 on: Nov 24, 2012, 04:06 PM
Which online broker you use or recommend to trade the US market? Thanks


ferrariEverest

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Reply #11 on: Nov 24, 2012, 05:08 PM
gramos, bzboi,
Interactive Brokers

pagkaalala ko, lagi may broker comparison chart sa website nila. pwede nyo rin icheck yung mga brokers na andun.
typically, mas malaki ang minimum nila


 


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