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lytman02 · 8 · 2961


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on: Mar 24, 2011, 09:31 PM
Bullish Bias On The Philippine Peso

Both technical and fundamental data support a bullish bias for the Philippine peso against the US dollar (bearish USDPHP). Let me show you how...


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Reply #1 on: Apr 05, 2011, 02:42 PM
Hello po!

Where did you get your chart for the PHPUSD?



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Reply #2 on: Sep 20, 2013, 04:41 PM
USDPHP: Looking Forward

After the announcement that the FOMC will withhold tapering for the mean time, the peso gained against the dollar, with the exchange rate opening at 43.359 and closing at 42.837. Simple supply and demand – the decision of not cutting off the volume of dollars injected in the economy led to a weaker value for the Buck since there is a demand surplus.

Post-FOMC reactions: PSEi closed 6,511.70, a 2.81% boost for the day. Logic behind – foreign investors fled to emerging markets (such as the Philippines) after the no-taper decision. Value turnover was reported to be at 16B, with net foreign buying at 2.5B.

Last night US Unemployment claims totaled to 309K for the week, better than the expected 331K. Positive data from Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing  also gave the US Dollar a boost against its major peers as the dollar index rose to 80.314 from dropping t0 79.98 last Thursday, lowest level seen since February of this year.

Long-term Outlook: the boost in the Philippine stock market will definitely play a role in spurring economic activities in the country. The next QE decision will be on December 19 of this year. If the Fed still decides to leave the program unchanged, then another USD devaluation can help the peso. Additionally, the GDP forecast for the US economy has been reduced, and the Philippines just recently experienced a hefty 7.5% GDP boost. To top it all off, the peso usually rallies during the Christmas season, as individual consumption and business spending surges exponentially. Things are looking good for the Philippine peso.


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Reply #3 on: Sep 24, 2013, 08:51 AM
US Dollar Gains Against the Peso In Anticipation of Better Than Expected US Manufacturing Data

USDPHP gained by approximately 8 cents today which opened at 42.904 (9AM PHT) and closed at 42.985 (5PM PHT).

US Flash Manufacturing PMI data is to come out later tonight, with an expected 54.2 reading for September, better than August's 53.1 figure. This is the highest level projected for US flash manufacturing since April of this year, an indication of continuous expansion in the US manufacturing sector (50 is the base line wherein below 50 means contraction, above 50 means expansion). With such positive outlook for US economy, the US Dollar may continue its appreciation above 43 levels in coming days unless the actual data does not align with market expectation. 


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Reply #4 on: Sep 26, 2013, 08:05 AM
Dollar Appreciates Amidst Rising Philippine Imports
USDPHP has maintained its bullish momentum after starting the week at 42.904. The Dollar opened today at 43.180 and closed higher at 43.274. The Dollar continued to strengthen against the Peso as Philippine imports are reported to have risen to a 7-month high, climbing 8.7% in July. Coinciding with yesterday’s GDP growth cut, the government plans to lower export and import growth targets of 10 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
The US Core Durable Goods Orders have an upbeat expectation to come out at 1.1%, a hefty improvement from the previous negative 0.8% revised figure. As such, the Peso is seen to continue its decline in tomorrow's trading with the Dollar seeking to break above the 43.5 threshold. It is noteworthy that if the PSEi rallies tomorrow, the effect could spillover to the Peso, causing it to appreciate.


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Reply #5 on: Sep 27, 2013, 09:34 AM
Positive Economic Sentiment to Strengthen the Peso

The three day rally of USDPHP has come to a halt, as the Dollar opened today at 43.273 and closed lower at 43.102. Although US Core Durable Goods Orders came out better than previous numbers, it was way below market expectations of 1.1%. On the other hand, a group of analysts gave out their insights regarding the third quarter growth of the Philippines. Positive outlooks were given as the country’s GDP is anticipated to stay above the 7.0 percent threshold, boosting investor confidence towards the economy. Also, scheduled to come out later today is the US Pending Home Sales. With an expectation of minimal improvement, the economic release shall further indicate for investors that US economic growth is still sluggish.


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Reply #6 on: Sep 29, 2013, 11:03 AM
Economic Uncertainty Left USDPHP Barely Unchanged

USDPHP opened at 43.111 and closed at 43.126. The small gap between the open and close prices clearly indicates that currently, the direction of the currency pair is uncertain, as both buyers and sellers shy away from volatility. Market tension can be felt as there is a prevailing economic impasse in the US regarding the debt ceiling issue. Thus, the Dollar’s future movement is dependent on what the government concludes, and every economy has their eyes toward the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the PSE Index ends the week with a 0.43% drop, hardly making a dent towards the local economy.


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Reply #7 on: Sep 25, 2014, 10:42 AM
Gogogo Philippine Peso!
Beat back the strong US Dollar!!


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