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TSO · 398 · 88262


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Sir TSO, bought my SHLPH stocks during it's IPO and held on to it since it is my very first stocks. After two years and almost 30% paper loss, I'm thinking of selling it na and just suck up the losses. Any advice?

Thanks bro. And thank you for all your analysis here on the thread.


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Oooh... you bought a stock during the IPO? Dude, first thing first: if you're gonna buy a stock that's going public for the first time, do not buy it for the long-term, because initial post-IPO prices will be significantly overvalued. You buy companies at IPO prices with the intent of flipping over the stocks within the next few days (or a week at max).

If you're eyeing the company as a long-term investment, you need to wait until at least a few months AFTER the IPO.

As for SHLPH itself... well... if I'm just STRICTLY gonna rely on valuation... I'd argue that the company could generate about 10 billion a year in operating profits. That should be more or less 7 billion after taxes. Assuming it grows at a rate of 4% a year (long-term inflation rate of the Philippines) and a discount rate of, say, 10% (the recent long-term annual returns of the PH stock market), You'd have 121 billion in enterprise value. So... from that... accounting for +2 billion in excess cash, +4 billion in long-term receivables/rentals/investments, and -15.7 billion in debt and deferred tax liabilities... you'll have an adjusted value of PHP 111.3 billion. With current shares outstanding at 1613.44 million, that equates to an average value of PHP 69.

SHLPH right now is trading at 76.23 billion. That translates to 47.25 per share. The implied margin of safety is 31.5%.

ASSUMING you bought your shares right out the gate, that means your average per share price should be around PHP 75 each. Yet the value right now is PHP 69.

Now I don't know the risk level of the company -- and that's pretty important to me because that and the discount rate I selected directly influence the margin of safety I demand --  but let's say you need a minimum margin of safety of, uh, 20% to be satisfied with your position. This means you need to reduce your average price from PHP 75 to PHP 60. I do not know how much money you need to invest to average it down to that level, but if you can (1) afford the averaging down and (2) keep your portfolio exposure to SHLPH below your maximum tolerance (mine is somewhere between 10% - 15%)... then keep SHLPH and average down. If you are unable to do any of those things... just sell it and suck up the losses.
« Last Edit: Jan 22, 2019, 12:57 PM by TSO »


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if you're gonna buy a stock that's going public for the first time, do not buy it for the long-term, because initial post-IPO prices will be significantly overvalued.

Lesson that will forever be etched in my memory. Thank you very much TSO.


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Heard of All Home doing IPO in September. Very interested. Hope will not regret it though. Heard its going to be priced low.


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If you're gonna go in that stock, then be careful. Again, there is a tendency for newly-listed stocks to normalize a few weeks after the IPO.

Get in, trade out at a profit, then HOPEFULLY you'll have an opportunity to invest later.

If not... eh, you made some money. There's always another LT investment available.


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Also, to anyone following me here on PMT, note that I've moved over to Investagrams under my full name ("The Silent One").

Username: @somni206

I cover both PH and US securities. See you there! :D

And follow me XD


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Since I haven't posted my analyses here for a while, I'll be putting up the following over the next week or two:
- Diamond Offshore (NYSE, DO)
- Iridium Communications (NASDAQ, IRDM)
I will not post Holcim Ltd. until these two are done.

I'm currently working on SAIA Inc. (NASDAQ, SAIA) and Pacific Online Systems Corporation (PSE, LOTO) simultaneously. SAIA has just finished data entry phase. As for LOTO, while my past spreadsheets back in 2010 have "forward compatible" to the current incarnation of my analytical framework, so this should speed up the data entry phase.

TSO out.

Hello everyone,,
This is a gold mine FE "companies that constantly rely on foreign-exchange transactions and exposed to related exchange rate fluctuations."

simple yet practical - na alala ko ng dekada 90 maraming kumpanya nalugi na may utang na dollares.

Bili ako ng TDY at LOTO
Long ako sa EURUSD

Buy Peso Sell Dollar..
« Last Edit: Sep 13, 2019, 02:57 AM by Gabrial »


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by the way on nat resources.... APC seemed a geotherm+mining +infra company... penny stock but seems ok fundamentally at a glance... i did a glance screening 2days ago... ther prospects are gud, though a few mining sites waiting for jv and funding... they seemed to be forging a partnership with bel and lr din... catch is that itys a little overbought and ratios are not to gud - i gues at 80% current ratio...

anyway back to edc...
is it ok to ask the most beasic question? i seem not to fully comprehend this one.
1. How does a geothermal energy producer profit? - (on a capacity production basis, usually how much to they earn per kilo/ megawat/hr they produce, versus the cost of generating it? vs cost of putting up the plant or Maintnce... it seems that currently one of the most efficient way of producing enegy is geothermal (i wont agree with wind or solar--)however it is not the most popular choice in the power sector.
2. y does the impairment penalties cost so much? esp, for a plant with relaticvely small capacity.
3. how much would renewable energy act affect its revs and profits...
4. what will be the targeted date for production and partial return of investment, esp on the note on offshore projects...

on the side... i think renwable energy act is just a bluff... but kodos ot EDC...the no. 1 geothermal energy producer in the world!!!
thanks TSO....

Hello everyone,,
TSO, your questions about PETRON's business plans are valid and deserves an answer.

AS i see it in the global front, most of the biggest oil producers are veering away from refining business and concentrate all their resources in oil exploration and delivery.

Worldwide, there is a dent on demand from refining.  It is too expensive to operate a refining plant.  Competition is too strong.  There is no government incentives for local refiners.  I do not know how PETRON will survive in the short term after carrying a huge debt load...
« Last Edit: Sep 23, 2019, 04:23 PM by FutureGizmo »


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