PMT Forum
Do you want to make money today? :)

TSO's Desk

TSO · 398 · 87489

Senyor

  • Forum Master 400
  • ***
    • Posts: 465
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
This is a gold mine FE "companies that constantly rely on foreign-exchange transactions and exposed to related exchange rate fluctuations."

simple yet practical - na alala ko ng dekada 90 maraming kumpanya nalugi na may utang na dollares.

Bili ako ng TDY at LOTO
Long ako sa EURUSD

Buy Peso Sell Dollar
« Last Edit: Oct 11, 2012, 04:41 AM by Senyor »


bauer

  • VIP 4500
  • *****
    • Posts: 4,857
    • Likes Received: +12/-0

TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Quote
I'd just like to ask what do the EMH theorists mean when they say that Buffet is a three-sigma event?

I know they're probably saying he's just lucky etc. But I'm just curious as to what a three-sigma event really is. Thanks in advance

Essentially, they're referring to the three-sigma empirical rule of statistics, which states that a normal curve has 99.73% of its data located within 3 standard deviations from the mean. Consequently, this means that the occurrence of something abnormal is 1 out of 370, and by calling Buffett a 3-sigma event, they're calling him someone who appears 0.27% of the time.

Of course, Buffett himself refutes this with the now famous "Graham and Doddsville" speech.

Quote
TSO, dami pera China so they are in a spending spree tapos gusto na rin nila pumwesto as world power.
Fed's QE3 promises to keep rates low to at least mid-2015
share mo macroresearch 'directory' mo when you have the time or inclination , here or thru PM

China's on a spending spree because it's trying to stimulate growth. Whether it wants to have more influence than it already has is a political speculation, and we can't be certain on its feasibility.

Fed's QE3 is open-ended, so I won't be surprised.

Macro resources ko... well, there's always mainstream financial media. But as far as the specific ones go, I'm going to go and disclose PIMCO's William Gross, Zerohedge, Business Insider, and The Big Picture. Those are already a lot in and of themselves.

Quote
the US will have a strong recovery after 2015-2016 so inflation will set in as a consequence of printing too much money

Bauer, this assumes the US consumer is ready to start spending again and banks are lending to the real economy instead of hoarding it all in reserves or safe haven flows.

Quote
This is a gold mine FE "companies that constantly rely on foreign-exchange transactions and exposed to related exchange rate fluctuations."

simple yet practical - na alala ko ng dekada 90 maraming kumpanya nalugi na may utang na dollares.

Bili ako ng TDY at LOTO
Long ako sa EURUSD

Buy Peso Sell Dollar

Hope you did your due diligence on TDY because my analysis on it is currently outdated and I am not interested in revisiting it. LOTO... well, tingnan na lang natin.

Companies that rely on FOREX are vulnerable to changes in FOREX, which can be a good or bad thing depending on what balance sheet and income statement items are affected. My mind's short on the US Dollar because of QE-infinity and political gridlocks for the most economic solutions to the crisis, which should eventually impact demand for the USD if left unabated.

The question is, will the US politicians ever get their act together? Same for the Euro. If you're long on both, then you're long on a near-political impossibility.

And regarding the 90's, IIRC that's during the Asian crisis. I don't know the specifics of what happened then, but I can imagine it must've been a flight away from Asia, which strengthened Western currencies and therefore crippled companies holding dollar-denominated bills.

The opposite is currently happening, so you shouldn't be "long sa EURUSD" unless you're a political idealist who thinks these idiots, cutthroats, and Wall Street puppets can get their sh*t together and learn to compromise, cooperate, and make mutual sacrifices instead of bullying their way around Congress and the Senate.


bauer

  • VIP 4500
  • *****
    • Posts: 4,857
    • Likes Received: +12/-0
Bauer, this assumes the US consumer is ready to start spending again and banks are lending to the real economy instead of hoarding it all in reserves or safe haven flows.
 

There are good signs that private sector deleveraging is producing great results like credit card receivables, housing debt, and corporate debt has been decreasing from a high of 45 trillion plus to close to 40 trillion plus at current level.  So consumers, most likely, will be more confident to spend by 2015 up (specially since jobless rate will fall considerably by that time).

The current problem is the RISING trend of government debt which counteracts the good signs of private deleveraging. 

Post Merge: 1349934953
it does not bother me what banks do right now.  the banks substantially over leverage themselves and it is but normal for them to hoard the cash borrowed from FED and relend it again to the government. there's nothing much banks can do right now.
« Last Edit: Oct 11, 2012, 01:55 PM by bauer »


TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
I can only hope so.

At any rate, I'll keep on buying stocks... and going after Free Money Fridays.


alacrity

  • Forum Tambay 200
  • ***
    • Posts: 241
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Thanks for the reply TSO, btw, have you ever considered being in the academe - be a professor? Like Graham, galing mo mag-breakdown ng mga complex topics, binababa mo sa understandable na level :).


TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Thanks for the reply TSO, btw, have you ever considered being in the academe - be a professor? Like Graham, galing mo mag-breakdown ng mga complex topics, binababa mo sa understandable na level :).

I actually have, but I don't think my "experience" (3 years cumulative) qualifies me for it yet plus I'm a bad teacher. I'm one of those guys who can explain things well to a single person and do it great but flounder when it comes to a structured lesson plan. People'd simply despise me if I was a prof. See, here's how I'd go about it:

First thing I'd do is explain "Value Investing" as a lifestyle more than an impersonal exercise in the academe's ivory tower, that its core principles are applicable everywhere and anytime, and that most people do it all the time until they end up with financial or investment issues where they get duped, they fail to budget for emergencies or misfortune, they fail to pay the "value" price, etc., etc. Basically give away the importance of why it's more important than any of their classes.

What follows after that lecture would be a systematic attack on the Modern Portfolio Theory's underpinning. I'd have students come to the front and explain to the class Markowitz's Efficient Frontier, the Capital Market Line, the Security <something> Line, the Risk Tolerance equation, the Risk-Free Rate. Maybe get them to talk about wanting to be an economist or a banker... even ask 'em about their thoughts on LIBOR (which they'll be so brainwashed on they probably wouldn't know it's being manipulated like gold, silver, and oil). When they're done, I'd rip it apart and show 'em how "reliable" it is in the real world. Beta, LIBOR, Sovereign Bankruptcy, Philosophical Collectivism, etc.

The subsequent lessons after that then flow into its long-term performance, its "paradoxical quality" to academics and professionals living in an ivory tower, and then put into practice: one financial analysis after another using companies I've analyzed and invested in (passed on) myself. Grading then becomes an issue since it's hard to measure how much "Value Investing" students learn. I can imagine myself making an announcement right before things "get intense" and declare an ultimatum where I don't want to waste my breath trying to teach people who are too brainwashed, too shocked, or too lazy to understand or want to learn Value Investing. I'll tell them how much time I'm wasting and how it translates to money, and therefore offer to hand out free C's to any and all dropouts but warn them they're going to miss out. And then I also say that I "may just decide" to give a D instead, so there's risk involved. Haha! XDDD

EDIT: And did I mention that I'd want to take on only seniors? And if any yuppie or recent grad can remember, senior year is often filled with projects and theses and more projects and theses.
« Last Edit: Oct 12, 2012, 11:19 PM by TSO »


ferrariEverest

  • VIP 5500
  • *****
    • Posts: 5,593
    • Likes Received: +4/-0
plus I'm a bad teacher. I'm one of those guys who can explain things well to a single person and do it great but flounder when it comes to a structured lesson plan. People'd simply despise me if I was a prof.
based on the keywords/phrases in bold...
i now confidently confirm you are my long lost twin who somehow fled to tx :D ...finally found you  :applause:


freefront

  • VIP 4500
  • *****
    • Posts: 4,888
    • Likes Received: +9/-0
I actually have, but I don't think my "experience" (3 years cumulative) qualifies me for it yet plus I'm a bad teacher. I'm one of those guys who can explain things well to a single person and do it great but flounder when it comes to a structured lesson plan. People'd simply despise me if I was a prof. See, here's how I'd go about it:

First thing I'd do is explain "Value Investing" as a lifestyle more than an impersonal exercise in the academe's ivory tower, that its core principles are applicable everywhere and anytime, and that most people do it all the time until they end up with financial or investment issues where they get duped, they fail to budget for emergencies or misfortune, they fail to pay the "value" price, etc., etc. Basically give away the importance of why it's more important than any of their classes.

What follows after that lecture would be a systematic attack on the Modern Portfolio Theory's underpinning. I'd have students come to the front and explain to the class Markowitz's Efficient Frontier, the Capital Market Line, the Security <something> Line, the Risk Tolerance equation, the Risk-Free Rate. Maybe get them to talk about wanting to be an economist or a banker... even ask 'em about their thoughts on LIBOR (which they'll be so brainwashed on they probably wouldn't know it's being manipulated like gold, silver, and oil). When they're done, I'd rip it apart and show 'em how "reliable" it is in the real world. Beta, LIBOR, Sovereign Bankruptcy, Philosophical Collectivism, etc.

The subsequent lessons after that then flow into its long-term performance, its "paradoxical quality" to academics and professionals living in an ivory tower, and then put into practice: one financial analysis after another using companies I've analyzed and invested in (passed on) myself. Grading then becomes an issue since it's hard to measure how much "Value Investing" students learn. I can imagine myself making an announcement right before things "get intense" and declare an ultimatum where I don't want to waste my breath trying to teach people who are too brainwashed, too shocked, or too lazy to understand or want to learn Value Investing. I'll tell them how much time I'm wasting and how it translates to money, and therefore offer to hand out free C's to any and all dropouts but warn them they're going to miss out. And then I also say that I "may just decide" to give a D instead, so there's risk involved. Haha! XDDD

EDIT: And did I mention that I'd want to take on only seniors? And if any yuppie or recent grad can remember, senior year is often filled with projects and theses and more projects and theses.

Try to reconsider when you're a lot older and calmed down a bit and  you'd have minions in your investment house already. For the elegant inglis alone, TSO, ...darn...  :hello:


bauer

  • VIP 4500
  • *****
    • Posts: 4,857
    • Likes Received: +12/-0
   I can imagine myself making an announcement right before things "get intense" and declare an ultimatum where I don't want to waste my breath trying to teach people who are too brainwashed, too shocked, or too lazy to understand or want to learn Value Investing. I'll tell them how much time I'm wasting and how it translates to money, and therefore offer to hand out free C's to any and all dropouts but warn them they're going to miss out. And then I also say that I "may just decide" to give a D instead, so there's risk involved. Haha! XDDD
 

You really hit the mark! hehehe..........


abolababo

  • Junior Member
  • **
    • Posts: 44
    • Likes Received: +0/-0
wow dami ko natutunan dito keep it up mga guru' hehe


TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Since I haven't posted my analyses here for a while, I'll be putting up the following over the next week or two:
- Diamond Offshore (NYSE, DO)
- Iridium Communications (NASDAQ, IRDM)

I will not post Holcim Ltd. until these two are done.

I'm currently working on SAIA Inc. (NASDAQ, SAIA) and Pacific Online Systems Corporation (PSE, LOTO) simultaneously. SAIA has just finished data entry phase. As for LOTO, while my past spreadsheets back in 2010 have "forward compatible" to the current incarnation of my analytical framework, so this should speed up the data entry phase.

TSO out.


GoodSteward

  • VIP 3500
  • *****
    • Posts: 3,991
    • Likes Received: +4/-0
@TSO, dont know if youre still busy nowadays....

But in case youre free, i would like to request your analysis of the value of SSS : SLF, SGI and SPH. (Either or/and)

SLF : Im holding it becuse of its good dividend.

SGI : My technical chambanalysis giving me good gains now, but want to know if its fundamentally stable or not...

SPH : They SEEM to be the leader in local beauty care products. I dont get why this is a sleeping beauty stock.

TIA!
« Last Edit: Jan 11, 2013, 12:50 PM by GoodSteward »


TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Ano negosyo nila? I'll do a quickie tom night to see if they're worth further scrutiny. I've been busy writing a chapter for an e-book a LinkedIn connection of mine is planning on publishing, about my philosophy and one of my more recent projects (which my partner has adopted), and I didn't work on LOTO-SAIA during the Xmas break...

If I like something enough for a Deep Scan, I'm seriously going to follow it up after LOTO, but I can only do it one at a time now and for a long period of time as I alternate companies after completing (i) data entry, (ii) adjustments, (iii) data processing, (iv) elemental analysis, and (v) valuation. It'l be slow so long as I'm not working full-time on investments (hopefully that'll change when the hedge fund rolls out by Feb/Mar).



TSO

  • PMT Idol 1500
  • ****
    • Posts: 1,641
    • Likes Received: +1/-0
Now should also be a good time to mention that I have CFA level II to study for and the habit of reading/compiling a linkfest for my friends and pro contacts concerning world news on tech, econ, pols, society, biz, etc


 


Recent Posts

Construction Cost - Concrete by MaxP
[Today at 02:13 PM]


How to play online casino and win big by ThomasPal
[Today at 02:59 AM]


How to play online casino and win big by ThomasPal
[Today at 02:59 AM]


New to options and stocks by meklein
[Yesterday at 07:15 PM]


Anyone investing in copper? by MaxP
[Yesterday at 04:03 AM]


Fx-Market News And Analysis by TraderSmith
[Dec 13, 2019, 10:24 PM]


Should I invest in Mutual Funds/ How to!!!! by BernalFernas
[Dec 13, 2019, 08:54 PM]


20% tax on interest!! by BernalFernas
[Dec 13, 2019, 08:53 PM]


Trailing Stop questions... by ColtonCarson
[Dec 12, 2019, 07:04 PM]


The Trillion-Dollar Lawsuit That Could End Financial Tyranny by AMARANTH
[Dec 12, 2019, 01:50 PM]


Beware of CDC Realty by Brightside87
[Dec 12, 2019, 12:49 PM]


98% of Ransomware victims were using windows 7 by MaxP
[Dec 12, 2019, 03:08 AM]


How to speed up website load time? by MaxP
[Dec 12, 2019, 03:06 AM]


Business offer/Co-financer in need by MaxP
[Dec 11, 2019, 11:59 PM]


Where to invest US$ in PH??? by BernalFernas
[Dec 11, 2019, 07:07 PM]

PMT Shoutbox

Refresh History
  • Post only questions or comments here. Advertisements NOT ALLOWED.
  • Niel Jhacoubs: To bpc85 kung nakalagay ang inyong names sa beneficiary list ng iyong ama kay may makukuha po kayo.
    Nov 28, 2019, 02:18 PM
  • Niel Jhacoubs: Hellooooo, its been a while. :)
    Nov 28, 2019, 02:16 PM
  • miakashidou31: hi , meron po ba ditong nagta transfer sa paypal?
    Nov 05, 2019, 01:46 PM
  • whennedy: good noon po
    Oct 18, 2019, 12:04 PM
  • edzlpdac: goood day po sa lahat!
    Oct 12, 2019, 03:37 PM
  • bpc85: ask lng sana ako kung may makukuha ba kami ng Mama ko at ako or mga kapatid ko sa benepisyo ng aming Ama bilang membro ng AFPSLAI. thank you po.
    Sep 27, 2019, 12:52 PM
  • bpc85: Hi guys, im new here,.
    Sep 27, 2019, 12:52 PM
  • Anaperdi: Hi just want to know if meron dito who is into boundary hulog ng motorcycle? For mga riders ng courier. Pwede ba magpashare how it works? Naisip ko lang baka pwede ko ibusiness, meron na pala mga posts online pero di pa clear ang system sa akin. thank  you sa makakapansin
    Sep 21, 2019, 11:32 AM
  • Anaperdi: Hi newbie here..
    Sep 21, 2019, 11:19 AM
  • jprios: May contact ba kayo kung sakali?
    Sep 18, 2019, 06:11 PM
  • jprios: Sino pwedeng mahiraman dito?
    Sep 18, 2019, 06:09 PM
  • kfg52: Present!
    Sep 15, 2019, 07:26 PM
  • juju31: san po ba may nag papahiram dito
    Sep 14, 2019, 07:18 PM
  • juju31: hello
    Sep 14, 2019, 07:18 PM
  • FutureGizmo: Thanks julz! Medyo ganun nga trabaho namin ngayon, to monitor spam posts kasi ang daming spam bots. But thanks for reporting. Auto-ban agad ang spammers sa amin haha
    Sep 07, 2019, 12:17 PM
  • julz: @FutureGizmo si @nikkikv18 just posted more than 10 posts about porn sites. hay, spam.
    Sep 03, 2019, 01:05 PM
  • Cid_brent: sino po dyan pwede magbigay send ng paypal funds and I will pay you using gcash?
    Aug 25, 2019, 08:58 PM
  • Meghan91811: Sino po may alam about Rice Farming...
    Aug 25, 2019, 07:44 AM
  • roselove: hello po sa inyo... newbie here
    Aug 06, 2019, 03:31 PM
  • Niel Jhacoubs: Sino palaging active dito?
    Jul 30, 2019, 04:15 PM
  • dagocjasonrey: Anong update dito?
    Jul 22, 2019, 08:49 PM
  • mark_Lee: anong bago dito
    Jun 28, 2019, 01:03 AM
  • mark_Lee: balita
    Jun 28, 2019, 01:03 AM
  • Lovelyprincess72: hi everyone , I'm newbie here
    Jun 27, 2019, 02:36 PM
  • Niel Jhacoubs: Musta?
    Jun 26, 2019, 01:43 PM
  • Forexanalysis: Hello
    Jun 25, 2019, 06:33 PM
  • Niel Jhacoubs: Hello sa mga online jan! :)
    Jun 15, 2019, 02:58 PM
  • oragon: :applause:
    May 20, 2019, 03:53 PM
  • FutureGizmo: Thank you for reporting those spam posts, oragon! Spam posts now deleted.
    May 20, 2019, 01:59 PM
  • oragon: Admin kindly monitor some peps! posting and sharing inappropriate nude photos and website links
    May 20, 2019, 01:52 PM
  • @culinary10: Hello I am new here! Regarding sa bdo life insurance for 8 years, pwede pa kaya ma refund yung binayad ko na 50k last year? Gusto ko sana icancel kasi lack of financial na, last may 15 2018 po un nag start ako ng life insurance, pinili ko annually kaso etong may 15 2019 wala nako ma ipay so gusto ko sana icash out, may alam ba kayo kung pano marerefund?
    May 17, 2019, 07:56 PM
  • FutureGizmo: Hi Sonny, the posting issue is now resolved. Thanks for informing us! We're currently testing a new, mobile-ready theme so let us us know kung may problema pa sa Forum. :)
    Apr 04, 2019, 10:40 AM
  • sonny.wapak: Nakaka receive din ba kayo nito pag gawa ng new post? "Please try again. If you come back to this error screen, report the error to an administrator."
    Apr 03, 2019, 10:56 PM
  • leonine_zafiro: what product nun?
    Apr 01, 2019, 10:25 PM
  • dhondiex27: hi
    Mar 30, 2019, 10:55 PM
  • lusart: jayrob i agree 200%. hulog ng langit organico. legit na legit
    Mar 29, 2019, 09:08 AM
  • palemelch: Hi
    Mar 28, 2019, 04:08 PM
  • O.C.W._AK: Magandang Araw sa Lahat! Blessings! (",)
    Mar 28, 2019, 08:42 AM
  • thor15: hello everyone, newbie here
    Mar 25, 2019, 01:47 AM
  • captjaylo: present newbie here
    Mar 22, 2019, 10:06 AM
  • balboagilbert26: hello Guys .. Newbie here
    Mar 21, 2019, 10:55 PM
  • businesswoman2019: @jefsanity nag inquire na po ako pero di sila nagdidisclose. Yung branch po kasi na target ko, currently building pa.
    Mar 21, 2019, 04:27 PM
  • jefsanity: @businesswoman2019, much better inquire ka na lang sa admin nila.
    Mar 21, 2019, 01:51 PM
  • businesswoman2019: Hello! Any idea how much ang stall sa waltermart. 2m x 2m
    Mar 21, 2019, 08:28 AM
  • John Neil: Looking for an accredited iron foundry
    Mar 17, 2019, 03:19 PM
  • jayrob: Mark_Lee ung organico legit po yan..  Member din AQ..
    Mar 17, 2019, 12:57 AM
  • perlymelad: Hello po! Need advice, why my new MLM leaders failing?
    Mar 14, 2019, 08:51 PM
  • perlymelad: Present
    Mar 12, 2019, 07:53 PM
  • kennethmauricio: Hi saan po dito pwede mag post ng for sale properties?
    Mar 11, 2019, 07:58 PM
  • jefsanity: @mark_lee isipin mo anu passion mo at skills mo...
    Mar 11, 2019, 06:52 PM