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panitanfc

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Tso, maybe you forgot to post it. I will appreciate it. GMA7 please


TSO

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@ panitanfc: here you go.


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PH: GMA7
GMA Network Corporation
Assessed on: 10/17/2018
Market cap: PHP 17.04 billion (PHP 5.07 per share)
Dividend yield: 10.1% on average dividends declared (FY2017: 17.4%)
Recommendation: Strong Buy

Risk Rating: Level 1 (Low)
Reasons:
  • Financially, GMA's gross profitability (after adjusting it for depreciation and rental expense) holds consistently at 65%. GPA ratios are at a similar number on average, implying a wide economic moat as it is far above my benchmark.
  • Cash conversion cycles are mainly negative
  • Adjusted Piotroski F-Scores average 7.6 out of 10, and have been 9 or above in three of the past five years. This implies that plenty of value can be found in GMA7.
  • ROIC figures are strong whether RNOA or ROE is used. Ignoring the 6-year high in revenues in 2016 (which occurred due to the election year), GMA7 averages at 25% ROE or 21% RNOA. This is above the benchmark for "excellent" companies.
  • Creditworthiness ratios, likewise, are above standard. GMA7 continues to have a total liabilities-to-assets ratio less than 50%, even when its earnings typically fall at 35% of total liabilities. Current liabilities are well-covered by both current assets and operating cash flows.
  • Shares outstanding has not moved at all since GMA7 went public in 2008.
  • Furthermore, GMA is in an oligopolic market with ABS-CBN and TV5, sharing in a wide economic moat in reaching the Filipino community.
  • GMA is not ignoring the Internet either. Through NMI (GMA New Media, Inc.), it has launched many projects in web, mobile, digital television, and other emerging platforms, enabling the company to stay relevant among Filipino millennials. NMI has created MediaMerge, Inc. to take charge of online advertising sales and Digify, Inc. for "traiblazing" projects involving augmented reality, beacon/proximity marketing, multimedia content production, and end-to-end software solutions for marketing campaigns.
Valuation Notes:
  • In all valuations, because the 7.5 billion unlisted preferred shares are convertible to common shares at a rate of 5-to-1 (equivalent to 1.5 billion common shares), because there are currently 3.36 billion common shares outstanding, all valuations drop by roughly 30.86% in value from a post-dilution event.
  • Net Reproduction Value: PHP 11.71 billion basic, PHP 8.10 billion diluted.
  • Earnings Power Value: PHP 27.08 billion basic, PHP 18.72 billion diluted. The very large distance between NRV and EPV shows that GMA7's business cannot be easily replicated by a new entrant due to its reputation, its decades of existence, and its competitive advantages.
  • Franchise Value: PHP 33.16 billion basic, PHP 22.93 billion diluted. The 122% multiplier above EPV indicates the strength of GMA's franchise.
  • DCF (H): PHP 25.57 billion basic, PHP 17.68 billion diluted.
  • The estimated intrinsic value of GMA7 is PHP 25.85 billion undiluted, falling to PHP 17.87 billion if and when all 7.5 billion unlisted preferred shares are converted into common stock. 
  • Market-implied DCFs show that the market is expecting revenues to grow at 1.4% a year over the next 5 years. If dilution is factored in, then the expected 5Y CAGR of sales is implied to be 7.3%
Summary:
  • That GMA7 has a very low risk of going out of business or failing to grow its earnings by a slight premium above long-term inflation is obvious. Valuation risk is the main thing to keep in mind here.
  • In the event of dilution, the margin of safety drops from a compelling 34% to a trifle 5%. In that case, the stock is as good as fairly valued. (And at 10% a year, that's not bad! It falls in line with the 20-year average returns of the Philippine Stock Market Index).
  • On top of that, the average common dividends come up to 10% of the current market price, as the board of directors have stipulated that GMA7 will distribute a minimum of 50% of prior-year net income as dividends every year.
  • Since preferred share conversion has not occurred at all in the past ten years, we can probably assume that conversion has an extremely low chance of occurring. I'd peg it at 10%, just to be conservative. In that case, the probability-weighted intrinsic value of GMA7 is at PHP 25.05 billion. With the current price at PHP 17.04 billion, there is a 32% margin of safety in the stock. Thus, it is a great company to own for the long-term.


TSO

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US: CWH
Camping World Holdings
Assessed on: 11/9/2018
Market cap: $1,492 million ($17.03 per share). Note that both Class A and Class B shares are treated as one and the same.
Dividend Yield: 1.5%
Recommendation: Strong Buy

Risk Rating: Level 3 (Moderate)
Reasons:
  • Company has a strong economic moat in the recreational vehicle (RV) industry: GPAs consistently hover at 70% and historically RNOA has been far greater than 20%. However, RNOA has been falling since the Reorganization, due to the changes in CWH's capital structure and the resulting increases in net operating assets.
  • Both total asset turnover and operating margins are practically level at 2.5x and 7.3% respectively. The stickiness is a good sign.
  • Solvency ratios are undergoing an initial rise followed by a subsequent fall, and the same applies to payment coverage by profitability metrics. Liquidity is mainly covered by current assets, but unfortunately operating cash flows are abysmal relative to current liabilities. Unfortunately, with shareholders' equity (and retained earnings) historically negative, it is clear that CWH is extremely leveraged.
  • An asset management company, Laughing Water Capital, notes that CWH operates in a cyclical industry. A recession would cause the company to suffer. Fortunately, its CEO, Marcus Lemonis, has a wonderful track record of success with a reputation for growing businesses in spite of economic downturns.
Valuation:
  • Net Asset Value: $233.6 million from a reproduction viewpoint. The low value is mainly due to the high value of liabilities. It actually would've been negative if it weren't for my estimate of the value of customer relationships.
  • Earnings Power Value: $1,648 million. Assumes a 30% tax rate, mCAPEX = D&A (0.9% of sales), sustainable sales of $3.5 billion, and sustainable operating profitability of 7%. I believe these figures should be conservative relative to the current averages. The large gap between NRV and EPV clearly demonstrate the company's competitive advantages.
  • Franchise Value: $1,883 million. Based on expected RNOA of 15% and 10% as the cost of equity. Growth will add value to this business. To supplant this, the company has an earnings yield of 8.81% on its current equity value, of which 1.5 points goes out as dividends. The remaining 7.3% is invested at the average ROIIC of 10%, compared to a 6.54% WACC. With long-term organic growth at 3% per year, the company is thus expected to produce ROIs around 15.6% per year.
  • DCF Models: $2,370 million. Assumes a 30% tax rate, a 15-year competitive advantage period, a possible impairment of goodwill (30% of its FY2017 value), 60% of the historical 5Y CAGR of total revenues, which is 18% (based on conservative assumptions on CAGRs of each product segment), and operating margins floating between 7.50% and 7.83%
  • Intrinsic Value is estimated to be $1,987 million or $22.67 per share. The current price of $17 represents a 25% discount to this estimate.
  • DCF models utilizing market-implied growth rates indicate that the market is expecting sales to grow at a rate of 9.9% per year over the next five years.
Summary:
  • Contributing to my risk rating are the leverage it's in and the impact a recession would have on either its business and its ability to service its debt (considering that it comprises 80% of total liabilities). However, the company does enjoy a strong moat and competent leadership, so any troubles that don't affect these two variables OR result in dilution would be welcomed by any value investor.
  • A 25% margin of safety more than compensates the investor for the level of risk they'd take by investing in CWH's stock.


panitanfc

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Tso good day,

Got any interest with AGI and ISM?


TSO

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On vacation right now :P

With my gf. Hehe, gonna propose to her on this trip. XD


panitanfc

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WOW that's great!!!good luck on that!All the best! I hope she will said YES!!!


TSO

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US: IGGGF (HK: 799)
I Got Games, Inc.
Assessed on: 11/12/2018
Market cap: $1,539 million ($1.20 per share on the OTCMKTS, HKD 9.22 per share on the HKSE)
Dividend Yield: 5% (based on FY2017 dividends)

Recommendation: Strong Buy

Risk Rating: Level 4 (Moderate to High)
Reasons:
  • Past financials provide an excellent portrayal of strength: NOPAT margins above 20% and asset turnovers far greater than a 1x multiplier, along with barely any debt (liabilities funded just 30% of total assets in FY2017). Unsurprisingly, IGGGF's credit ratios also have an excellent showing.
  • GPA ratios are constantly at exceptionally high levels. The same goes for their other return-on-investment metrics. They've basically hit the jackpot here.
  • IGGGF is also spending plenty of money on its R&D: on average, it amounts to 11% of sales per year. This spending is critical as the vast majority of IGGGF's money is being produced by two F2P mobile games: Lords Mobile and Castle Clash.
  • This dependency on two IPs -- and two recently-created IPs at that -- basically leads to the Level 4 (Moderate to High) risk rating assigned to the company. The risk is mitigated by (a) their having nearly 500 million registered players across 200 countries worldwide, with more than 19 million monthly active users, (b) their games having won multiple awards, and (c) a culture oriented towards customer service. Unfortunately, these features cannot significantly dent the problems posed by the very intense competition in the mobile gaming industry and the ever-present risk of data breaches/hacking, not to mention the fact human beings are fickle-minded and are prone to boredom (especially when faced with a plethora of choices).
  • Also compounding the risk in IGGGF is its financial structure. IGG's functional currency is the US Dollar, yet 49% of revenues hail from Asia. The stock is also listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. While a 5% change in either HKD or SGD relative to the USD shouldn't affect IGG's bottom line by more than 1%, it would affect its valuations on the financial markets. So investors should be careful here.
Valuation:
  • NRV: $483 million. Approx. $235 million are sustained by the value of customer relationships/doing business and the value of their R&D work, offset by $20 million in dilution. It is assumed that a new entrant would have to pay 3x the cost in intangible assets and 1.5x the cost in tangible assets to come up with something that can effectively compete with Lords Mobile and Castle Clash.
  • EPV: $1,422 million. Based on sustainable sales of $400 million, 40% of both operating expenses and R&D costs to growth-related activities, and 120% of depreciation and amortization as maintenance capex.
  • Franchise Value: $,1828 million. Based on an assumed 30% RNOA (very conservative, actually, considering that historical ROEs are far above 30% given IGG's nature as a tech company) and a 10% cost of equity. However, we can expect IGGGF to earn 13.7% returns per year over time, based on a 7.3% earnings yield, a 1.1% buyback yield, a 4% dividend yield, and at least 25% return on incremental invested capital (which was assumed at a very conservative rate).
  • DCF models: $5,203 million, assuming a 3-year competitive advantage period, 22.75% operating margins (based on historical GPMs and OPMs), and 31.75% compounded annual growth rates (35% less than the average sales growth for the past three years).
  • Market-implied DCFs: Furthermore, the market expects IGG to grow its sales at a rate of 3.12% a year. So the market isn't paying too much attention to this stock.
  • Intrinsic value is thus estimated to be $3,678 million (USD 2.39 per share), providing an implied margin of safety of 58%.
Summary:
  • The 58% margin of safety should be more than enough to compensate us for both the high business risk of the IGGGF stock and any great drops in the value of the US Dollar. (Even if the USD depreciates by 20%, or the HKD/USD exchange rate plummets from 0.1277 to 0.0894, we would still make money).
  • Furthermore, the stock has high insider ownership and good leadership, and of particular importance is its customer-oriented culture (the company is very active in responding to user questions and concerns).
  • Because of these considerations, IGGGF is strongly recommended.


GIG

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I guess it was a yes, if inactivity is a good basis! congratulations man and welcome to the club!


TSO

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Lol yes, she did accept :D

Inactivity explained by work though. I've had no time to conduct analyses lately.


jenofstructures

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panitanfc

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TSO

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PH: CNPF (Century Pacific Tuna)
Assessed on: 12/14/2018
Market Cap: PHP 52.8 billion (PHP 14.90 per share)
Dividend Yield: 1.2% (based on FY2017 dividends)

Recommendation: Buy

Risk Rating: Level 1
Reasons:
  • Company outperforms on several benchmarks, specifically ROE and RNOA, which averaged above 20% over the past five years. It also showed consistent GPAs above the benchmark of 40%.
  • Debt Ratio below 40% in three of the past five years, yet solvency ratios averaged above 20% (also great) and both payments and current liabilities are well-funded by operating profits and current assets alike.
  • CAPEX is very high, totaling to PHP 5.6 billion from FY2013 through FY2017 (compared to D&A of PHP 1.4 billion). With total revenues at PHP 125.6 billion, this means that 4.5% of sales go into capital expenditures, more than 4x the amount that went into depreciation (1.1% of sales). Considering that the company has opened two new business segments in FY2016 and has poured large amounts of money into Coconut Water (and canned/processed fish), they are definitely not resting on their laurels and are aggressively pursuing growth and operational improvements.
  • Efficiency improvements seem to be working, but perhaps not quick enough. Gross margins have gone up, yes, from 18% to 27% and up, but total asset turnovers have also fallen sharply.
  • CNPF enjoys sustainable competitive advantages. It carries well-known household brands, it has a strong marketing base, it has nationwide distribution networks, and it has more than 200 SKUs. It's been in this position for a very long time, and recently the CEO has turned over his position to his brother, a "product guy" type.
Valuation
  • NAV: PHP 20.1 billion. Assumes new entrants would have to spend 2x the value on PPE and Intangibles, and an additional PHP 3 billion on business relationships. (CNPF has been around for over 30 years.)
  • EPV: PHP 42.8 billion. Presumes sustainable sales at PHP 31.5 billion, sustainable operating margins of 10.6%, and additional opex savings of PHP 700 million (in a non-growth scenario). Also presumes maintenance capex of 1.68% of sales (70% higher than current depreciation). Inflation was assumed in the computation of the earnings power value.
  • Franchise Value: PHP 62.2 billion. Based on 25% in average RNOA compared to 10% cost of capital.
  • DCF models: PHP 76.4 billion. Based on an 11.3% 5Y CAGR on overall sales, with growth mainly driven by Coconut Water and Packaging Products, followed by the canned/processed meat/fish products. Also presumes operating margins to gradually improve from 8.8% in FY2017 towards 12% by FY2022. To justify this, the company would maintain capital expenditures equivalent to 4% of sales, and an additional 5% of sales going into working capital investments. Also assumed that the company will see 25% of its goodwill being impaired in the future (because companies generally overpay for acquisitions).
  • Intrinsic value is thus estimated at PHP 64.8 billion or PHP 18.30 per share.
  • Market-implied DCF models suggest that the market is expecting the company to grow its revenues at 7.6% a year. Seems pretty conservative, though not depressing enough for CNPF to be truly a bargain.
Summary:


Great company, with an 18.6% margin of safety embedded into the current market price. While this MOS is insufficient for my own standards (with respect to the level of risk presented by this company and the discount rate used in the valuation models), CNPF's economic moat and longevity may be compelling enough for other people to enter into a position with this stock. For me, I'll wait until macroeconomics plunge the value down to PHP 14 and below.


jenofstructures

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TSO

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@ panitanfc

Tried to start my evaluation of Holcim Philippines (HLCM). Couldn't access their consolidated financial statements. So I'm skipping that over, unless you have them.

Will soon check any of the others provided here (right now I can choose between Petron, Cemex, Alliance Global, and Emperador). Hopefully I'll have a little bit of free time before the holiday weeks officially begin.


TSO

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Just checked Cemex Holdings Philippines. Big red flags for me were (1) the fact it just went public in 2016 -- which means there isn't enough history -- and (2) its offering prospectus is no longer available, preventing me from taking a good look at the stock.

What I DO see are pretty terrible. Net margins for 2016 and 2017 were in the low single digits (not surprising given this is a commodity business), and total asset turnovers were less than 1, which means ROAs are just bad. Days Sales in Inventory went up from 39 days in 2016 to 49 days in 2017, and days payables outstanding (computed using total OPEX and total operating payables, including the accruals) went up from 158 days to 227 days. Even if I took out "due to related parties", it'll still come out as 144 days in 2016 and 192 days in 2017. So... CHP is paying off suppliers, business partners, and related parties as late as they can? SMH.

Company is currently worth PHP 9.2 billion too. Since there isn't anything I can base growth off of, I'll just do a quick valuation based on its current earnings power. Operating profits is currently at PHP 2 billion. I don't know how much of that will be impacted by the ban on its subsidiary's mining operations, but let's say for whatever reason, the CHP can generate operating profits sustainably at PHP 1.8 billion. (Coincidentally, CHP's operating income for Q3 2018 YTD is 1.5 billion.) Set tax rate at 30% and... NOPAT of 1.26 billion.

My required rate of return will be 12%, but I'll assume that NOPAT will grow at the rate of LT inflation, which I expect to be around 4% over the super long run. So plugging that in... you get a value of PHP 16.38 billion. But wait! That's just enterprise value. We want EQUITY value. So we have to adjust that for financial liabilities (-13.74 billion), excess cash (well, it's pretty much zero in my book, but let's say they can do whatever they want with that PHP 1 billion in cash in the bank, so +1.06 billion), and deferred tax assets (+0.9 billion). Total adjustment is -11.78 billion, so that results in an equity value of 4.6 billion. If I reduced my required return to 10%, the calculated enterprise value would be PHP 21.84 billion, with PHP 10.06 billion left over for equity. Even less if I were to assume a portion of CHP's PHP 28 billion in goodwill to be suddenly impaired over the next five years (after all, companies are historically bad acquirers, overpaying for their acquisitions).

I suppose this means that you're getting growth for free, The top questions now are: how much growth are they going to get, and how are they going to compete against Holcim -- edit -- and cement imports on the Build-Build-Build thing? I haven't checked that out just yet.


2nd edit: I checked out COL analyst reports on the stock and noted that they expect sales to go up by 8% per year through 2021. If net margin averages at 4.5% (which happens to be the annual average of COL's expected net margins), then the intrinsic value should be at 2.7 per share. Thing is, when you compare 1.93 to 2.7, you get something like an implied 29% margin of safety. That's way too low for me; I'd buy only at PHP 1.62 per share, and even then, because of the high risk, my exposure would be limited, perhaps half or even a third of my typical allocations.
« Last Edit: Jan 03, 2019, 05:03 PM by TSO »


 


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