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AUD/USD (AUDUSD)

Pipinstinct · 18 · 14636

Pipinstinct

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on: Nov 08, 2010, 12:33 AM

AUD/USD headed upwards and by last week's judgement of standing aside failed to realize the strong bullish trend of this pair. (Read last week's outlook). Both EMA's are pointing upwards and probable target is 1.1500 and still within the uptrend trendline channel.. It may go over and beyond this point. Bearish trend outlook if it heads south closing around 0.9600.


engrventz

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Reply #1 on: Nov 18, 2010, 12:13 AM
Hi Everyone,

Forecast range for AUD/USD Nov.18,2010 9:00am EST
High - 0.9799
Low -  0.9717

This is only our guide.If your signal correspond to this forecast then it would be strong.

happy pipping...


SAGAD

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Reply #2 on: Feb 27, 2012, 08:37 AM
if i may...

last friday was an NR4 and NR7...

so my entries are as follows:

buy @ 1.0764
sell @ 1.0676

let's see what happens...


SAGAD

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Reply #3 on: Feb 29, 2012, 08:46 AM
if i may...

last friday was an NR4 and NR7...

so my entries are as follows:

buy @ 1.0764
sell @ 1.0676

let's see what happens...

short position was triggered and stopped out...

long position filled on the same day...currently at +40pips...

just broke above 1.0800, w/c was a strong resistance last week...

we'll see what happens...


SAGAD

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Reply #4 on: Mar 03, 2012, 09:03 AM
week ended w/ a long position, again, currently at -36pips...

we'll see what happens next week...


DavidApol

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Reply #5 on: Sep 13, 2013, 05:24 PM
A Comparison on Two Labor Markets – Dollar vs Dollar



Trading for this week has been brutal for the Land Down Under. After some worse-than-expected releases, the Greenback bulls pounced and easily breached an established two week bullish channel in just one candlestick (hourly chart). For this week’s last American trading session, it is anticipated that the Buck will further strengthen against its counterparts.

The Aussie started off the Asian session last Monday with a further decrease in ANZ job advertisements (-1.1% to -2%), suggesting a further decline on job openings. Things got worse when the deteriorating labor market (as shown in the ANZ advertisements) was paired with the worse-than-expected actual data for the employment change (forecast: 10.2K, actual: -10.8K), which sent the AUDUSD plummeting by 700 points in under just an hour. The two said economic indicators are vital for the overall growth of the economy. Since the labor market took a hit, this could reduce business optimism for both consumers and businesses. Additionally, MI inflation expectations was lower than previous (from 2.3% to 1.5%), which could also have a substantial negative impact to the value of the Aussie.

For today’s American session, both Produce Price Index (PPI) and retail sales are expected to experience an increase, which will lead to an increase in inflation, and ultimately, the value of the Buck. Also, the household economy is experiencing both a significant improvement and a boost in confidence, as the weekly unemployment claims decreased from the expectation of 332K to the actual of 292K. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment is also expected to post better-than-previous data.

To reiterate, the American Dollar is expected to further rally against the Australian Dollar. Pairing the deteriorating job market for the Land Down Under with an improving one for America, a short position is recommended for AUDUSD today.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #6 on: Sep 10, 2014, 05:43 PM


The ranging AUDUSD prices since March this year has finally been broken as prices dipped below previous support, now immediate resistance, at 0.92214. A retest of this, however, is not unlikely as the currency is currently oversold in the short-run. Investors could take advantage of this movement by going short on the Aussie if the resistance level holds after a test. Take profit near immediate support at 0.91040 is then recommended.


Dogberto

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Reply #7 on: Sep 14, 2014, 11:01 PM
Good trade entered on Sept. 11 and hit the Take Profit target on the same day (82.2 pips).


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #8 on: Sep 17, 2014, 04:00 PM


The US Dollar has generally been strong on bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on September 2015 given that the US economy is recovering better than expected. Last Friday, news regarding core retail sales revealed a 0.6% increase for month of August, higher than the expected 0.3%. A separate report on the same day showed that consumer sentiment for the month of September hit a 1 year high at 84.6.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #9 on: Sep 22, 2014, 06:31 PM


Intensifying the need for the Aussie’s weakening is the expected lack of growth in China’s manufacturing sector. Based on HSBC’s Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index, managers believe the industry did not expand last month, signaling lower demand for Australian exports. AUDUSD is expected to test secondary support at 0.86772 after bouncing back from a retest of immediate resistance at 0.90349.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #10 on: Sep 30, 2014, 06:51 PM


Support and Resistance Level

Traders can still take advantage of the downtrend channel in AUDUSD as prices are expected to approach the trendline resistance within the day. A short is recommended near immediate resistance at 0.87664, with profit-taking level near immediate support at 0.86491. Conservative traders could put a sell entry after a bounce-back from channel resistance.

Trend Indicators

The period-100 (red line) and period-200 (blue line) simple moving averages in the hourly chart confirm the bearishness in the Aussie, as prices trend below the moving averages. Immediate resistance from the 100 SMA could presently be found at 0.87912.

Oscillators

The relative strength index in the 4-hour chart shows the currency recently recovered from oversold conditions. As the current index level is at 33.86, prices are expected to experience some correction, coinciding with a test of RSI level 40 to 50.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #11 on: Oct 08, 2014, 05:43 PM


The Reserve Bank of Australia retained the current cash rate with the belief that the current monetary policy accommodates growth and supports demand. The bank anticipates growth to run below trend for the next quarters as public spending remains subdued and China’s slowdown offers lower demand for the country’s exports. Amidst the decline in commodity prices, the Board deems the exchange rate is still high, slightly posing a challenge to the achievement of balanced growth in the economy.

This week, the Australian dollar is expected to continue depreciating against the greenback, testing support at 0.86611.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #12 on: Nov 04, 2014, 05:04 PM


In its most recent rate statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates at 2.50% as expected. This is on the basis that the Aussie remains overvalued considering the decline in commodity prices. As a commodity exporter, the central bank aims to have a lower currency so that the price of their exports will remain competitive in the global market. Additionally, the interest rate should stay accommodative in order to achieve a consistent decline in unemployment. Australia’s employment condition for the month of September was revised to be worse than previously estimated. The total number employed individuals for the month of September was 24,400 fewer than previously reported. Unemployment rate was revised to be at 6.2%, from the previous release at 6.1%. The June, July and August unemployment rate was also revised up by 0.1%. Employment data for the month of October will be released on November 6.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #13 on: Nov 13, 2014, 05:35 PM


Given that the US is a consumption driven economy, a positive release regarding the consumer sector of the US economy could influence the US Dollar to strengthen against its peers. Tomorrow, retail sales and consumer sentiment data will be released. Data on retail sales for the month of October is forecasted to have grown by 0.2%, higher than the previous month’s negative 0.3%. Although there was increased hiring in September, the failure to increase wages did not drive sustained increase in demand, thus, the decline in the previous month’s retail sales. However, there is expectation that there will be soft improvement for the month of October considering that the decline in oil prices raised consumer’s purchasing power which will lead to higher consumption. Consumer sentiment is expected to be at 87.3 for the month of November, higher than October’s 86.9 figure which was reported to be the highest since 2007.


MetisEtradePR

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Reply #14 on: Jan 06, 2015, 06:15 PM


The Australian Dollar temporarily appreciated against the US Dollar after Australia’s trade balance for the month of November was released. Australia was revealed to have a trade deficit of 925 Million Dollars, better than the projected 1.59 Billion Dollars. Exports rose by 1% in November. As a commodity exporter, Australia’s trade data is monitored by its stakeholders.

A US data release later is expected to show that expansion in the US non-manufacturing sector moved to a more sustainable level last December. Positive data will possibly add strength to the US Dollar. Given the strength in the US economy brought about by strong consumption, AUDUSD will possibly continue its downtrend in the long-run.


 


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