Peso – Dollar exchange rate in 2008
December 27, 2008
Past performance is definitely not a guarantee of future results.
In 2007, the Philippine Peso was Asia’s best performing currency, up 18.8% against the US Dollar, closing at P41.28 at the end of the year.
In 2008, this situation has reversed. The peso is now one of the worst performing currencies in Asia, closing at P47.52 to the dollar in December 24, the last trading day of the year. This is a 15% decline from the P41.28 level at the beginning of 2007.
Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate, end-2008: P47.52 : $1
Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate, end-2007: P41.28 : $1
Peso depreciation vs. US Dollar in 2008: 15.12%
Interestingly in January 2008, several financial analysts predicted that the peso will continue to strengthen in 2008. Most predicted that the peso will hover below the P40 mark, with CitiGroup even reporting that the peso may strengthen to P37.50. This prediction, we now know, failed, in the same way Citigroup failed in predicting the extent of the impact of the subprime mess it will have on them.
What’s your prediction of the peso in 2009? Will the peso appreciate or depreciate versus the dollar? At what exchange rate do you think the peso will stabilize?
Post your predictions below and we’ll see next year if you’re better than professional financial analysts in terms of predicting the Peso-Dollar exchange rate.
December 28th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
Now that I’m hitting my $1000-earnings per website, I hope the value of the dollar would go strong next year. Haha. I feel for our OFW’s. But I learned how manipulative ForEx is. Tsk, tsk.
I also hope that it would be Php 50 (or higher) to a dollar. Selfish? Yes. But that will teach our fellow Filipinos to work harder and to think outside the box.
December 29th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
I do think that the dollar might strengthen towards the end of 2009 as analysts predicted that it will be the beginning to an end in the subprime mortgage crisis that caused the credit crunch in US. We might see the affect of the US bail out program towards the end of next year.
December 29th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
It will go up to P50-51 by Apr to May but will remain there. The world’s stimulus packages should be felt by 2nd half of 09. Also spending will be high in 2009 for Phil economy because of the upcoming election.
My 2 cents.
December 29th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
if it will strengthen in 2009, will not be as big.
against the dollar, it will become a lot weaker, probably as much as what Amateur Investor says above. December is a month where a lot of USD comes in the philippines, as we leave it, it will start to decline against US dollar by 2009.
as he said, the upcoming election is interesting, a lot of money will come out, we know politicians here are.
December 29th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
It’s hard to predict but I’ll go for strengthening of dollars because even the peso appreciates, there were no effects on prices of commodities.
December 30th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
@Paul, I agree. People who earn dollars like our OFWs would certainly appreciate an appreciating dollar. Filipinos should really work harder and try to earn in dollars or, at the least, earn more peso so they can get more value from what they are earning.
P.S., will write about your Asia Century experience in a few days.
@Millionaire Acts, if that’s the case then I should start saving my dollars. Hehe.
@Amateur Investor, the peso stabilizing at P50-51 during the first half of the year is a good guess. I too think it might hit that level by the 2nd quarter of the year. I also agree that political spending prior to the upcoming 2010 elections can temporarily bolster the country’s economy and can help temper the dollar’s appreciation versus the peso.
@adrian, that’s my prediction as well. The surge in remittances during December because of the Christmas season is what’s keeping the peso from falling further against the dollar but after the holidays, the growth of remittances will surely slow down and this might cause the peso to weaken.
@Lito, we’ll see next year if you’re correct. Let’s make it more interesting. At what price range do you think the peso will stabilize? ;)
December 30th, 2008 at %I:%M %p
@James, Thank you in advance. You may also want to get the opinion of those who left negative feedbacks (re: Asia Century) on your post about them (Asia Century). I did quite a research about that Philippine-based company. It turned out that during their first few months in operation, they indeed paid their affiliates’ earnings. However, that was only it. After some time,I’ve been reading more and more complains about them from its members. I guess their project has not become sustainable.
Just my two cents.