[alacrity]

I'm just curious if anyone believes, or uses/trusts 'intuition' as a method of picking a stock?

Of course apart from the usual logical way of analyzing fundamentals and due diligence.

I've read in books that intuition in the stock market is the ability to stop for a while and analyze ones' own actions as objectively as possible and realize that something is strange or out of kilter.

[freefront]

Depends on how well you know yourself. I don't little ability to store a lot information in my brain so I have to consider my gut feel most of the time. Specially if I'm multi-tasking, and pulling up information on every single thing I'm doing becomes maddening.

Sa akin, my intuition or my gut feel, is nothing but my subconscious telling me that something is amiss, or off-kilter. You've either experienced the same situation before or it is a secondhand experience ( ex.- you've read about it and learned it, too). You've processed the information, learned from it, then filed it away in some corner of your head. You encounter a similar situation, and your antenna is up. You either immediately act upon that buzz in your stomach or wonder why/what is going on. It gives you a pause to consider what to do next.

Couple that with a good sense of self-preservation and you won't be bloodied most of the time.

[TSO]

I'm just curious if anyone believes, or uses/trusts 'intuition' as a method of picking a stock?

Of course apart from the usual logical way of analyzing fundamentals and due diligence.

You DO realize that intuition is present even as you analyze a business's fundamentals?

Let's put it this way, with one of the US stocks I've recently analyzed. Here are the notes:
1. You're paying a 25% mark-up for the company's future growth.
2. You have a 27% margin of safety on the company's estimated value at pessimistic assumptions (37% upside)
3. The company yields no less than 5% in dividends since 2006.
4. The market price expects a 6.36% decline in sales every year for the next eight years.
5. The company is facing increasing operating costs and regulatory scrutiny. Sales are in slight decline or stagnation, but it has five operation-critical assets under construction. They are scheduled for deployment around late 2013 to mid 2014.
6. The company's prices have near-perfect correlation with the market as a whole.

What does your intuition tell you?
Post Merge: Jul 26, 2012, 04:14 AMAnd that's just on the decision-making portion. That's not counting the intuitive decisions you have to make AS you process the raw data and churn out the ratios.

[bauer]

Definition from wikipedia,

Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason.[1] "The word 'intuition' comes from the Latin word 'intueri', which is often roughly translated as meaning 'to look inside'’ or 'to contemplate'."[2] Intuition provides us with beliefs that we cannot necessarily justify. For this reason, it has been the subject of study in psychology, as well as a topic of interest in the supernatural. The "right brain" is popularly associated with intuitive processes such as aesthetic abilities.[3][4][5] Some scientists have contended that intuition is associated with innovation in scientific discovery.[6] Intuition is also a common subject of New Age writings.[


so if intuition is a belief that it is difficult to justify, then evaluations of stocks using financial reports and other written data does not fit the equation.

did i bought a stock using intuition or gut feel (using the definition above) ?  ABSOLUTELY NO

did i sell a stock using intuition or gut feel (using the same definition above)? ABSOLUTELY YES but not all the time.

[akira0422]

Some useful read on this topic might be: Gladwells' "Blink"
on some reason our brains has the ability to process enrmousamount of info in a fraction of a second- having to justify it or walk through as we tend to clarify things through the fog can ofetn be  more confusing as posibilities become broader. intutiuon in a very powerful force we humans have which can make us react promptly on just about any situation.....
based on experience more often my intuition is correct, it is the process of deducing things that often lead me to a wrong answer. on how or why this happens i cant explain.XD

[alacrity]

Depends on how well you know yourself.

Sa akin, my intuition or my gut feel, is nothing but my subconscious telling me that something is amiss, or off-kilter. You've either experienced the same situation before or it is a secondhand experience ( ex.- you've read about it and learned it, too). You've processed the information, learned from it, then filed it away in some corner of your head. You encounter a similar situation, and your antenna is up. You either immediately act upon that buzz in your stomach or wonder why/what is going on. It gives you a pause to consider what to do next.

Yes, I also had that kind of buzz in my stomach when I was hesitant to buy a stock. It was as if something was missing/out of place even after all the analysis that I've done. Then after reading an article in the newspaper, I guess it completed the picture for me.

So I guess I'm not alone in trusting my intuition, that's comforting

[bajoyjoy]

intuition and the stock market, hmmm... i'm answering based on bauer's definition and not this

intuition in the stock market is the ability to stop for a while and analyze ones' own actions as objectively as possible and realize that something is strange or out of kilter

Now, kung 100% based on intuition lang, for me parang it creates an image na you're just guessing, based on what your gut tells you... it's almost like what gamblers do, right? i mean you can be right some times. but for those times that you we're right but you have no logic/reason for why you we’re right, its kinda unsettling. Kahit pa you got it 90% correct everytime, to me it’s still chamba, just because you had no concrete/tangible basis for your choice. at most, i'd use intuition kung dead-even ang pros vs cons, but again, may logical basis. just my 2 cents.

But I do trust and believe in a woman’s instinct when applied in some areas of my life, other than the stock market…

[mamee]

I'm just curious if anyone believes, or uses/trusts 'intuition' as a method of picking a stock?

Kanina 104/sh ang JFC pero nag try ako mag place ng order for 100/sh. Ayun, may kumagat naman. Ginawa ko yun without basis/ research kasi malapit na magclose ang market, naghahabol ako.