Author Topic: Philippines one of the top 20 economies 30 to 40 years from now? (Read 3933 times)

bauer · « **on:** Jul 05, 2012, 12:11 PM »

Foreign analysts like those from yahoo breakout, HSBC, Goldman, etc. are saying that it is.

Do filipinos agree? I doubt if we gave them a high five because the reality is, we are not sure that we can make it. At hindi naman dahil wala tayong alam, ang problema, karamihan sa atin ay hindi naman iniisip kung ano ang mangyayari sa 2030, 2040, at lalo na sa taong 2050 (38 years away from now).

Si confucius ng China ang sabi dapat daw mag isip ang isang tao kung ano ang mangyayari sa loob ng 100 years.

One of the greatest american architect, Frank Lloyd Wright said we should design structures that will still look beautiful and relevant 100 years from now.

Sadly, hindi tayo ganito magplano dahil sa kultura na kinamulatan natin under 300 years of Spanish rule. Sabi nga nila, bakit ganito kultura ng pilipino parang damage? Ikaw ba naman 300 years sa kumbento (Spanish rule) at 50 years in hollywood (US influence), ano na kaya ang magiging personality mo?

Let's take the hard statistics and see if the foreigners' view will hold water

Our population now? 104 million 2011 estimate
Our birth rate? 1.9% increase per annum (improvement according to economists from a high 2.5% up)
Our GDP? first quarter 6.4% 2012
Our average GDP for the past 10 years? 4-5% only.
Our GDP in real numbers? 214 billion dollars (2011 estimate)

For simplicity sake, we match our GDP 2011 with our population 2011, and the final number 2,000 plus dollars per filipino. Malaysia has about 10,000 dollars per capita while Singapore has more than 46,000 dollars per capita

Based on my calculation, we will reached the same level of Malaysia today at 10,000 dollars per capita after 20 years from now ONLY IF

Our GDP will GROW 12% in the next 20 years (starting 2013)
Our population growth will DECLINE to 1% in the next 20 years (starting 2013)

Now, Is it doable? Certainly yes, but is it likely? I really doubt it given our cultural tradition.

Why do the foreigners' say so? Are they seeing what we are not seeing? I doubt it because we also have 2 eyes and 1 brain just like them.

Why are the foreigners so positive about our country's growth?

It is all about 'play' in the world of business. They made a bet, and if we get hook, our money is taken.

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #1 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 02:24 PM »

they are banking on the potentially rich talent pool (yung mga kabataan na magiging empleyado nila)

they are positive about Asia/the Philippines kasi bagsak ang America/Europe

they (should) stay positive else babagsak lahat ng stock markets (if they show global pessimism) hihihihi

wiggy · « **Reply #2 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 02:27 PM »

30-40 years from now? There's too much uncertainty right now. Shall we still continue to dominate the BPO industry? OFW remitances keeping us afloat? Shall we discover oil in our coast lines to call our own? But I do hope so and we must strive for that goal.

But I'm not suprised foreign investors, foreign luxury brands, luxury car brands etc are investing here. Perhaps they know that currently most Filipino's financial priorities are not properly set? Like living outside their means, just to get the latest gadget, the hotest car, vacation trips? Then bahala na kung may matitira sa budget. Bato-bato sa langit... Ang matamaan, wake-up call nalang po.

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #3 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 02:34 PM »

^ more appropriate reason is:
dami bagong talent pool/empleyado = may pera + tech.savvy + text/social media capital = may pambili/bibili ng goods/services

wiggy · « **Reply #4 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 02:55 PM »

^ Hmm yeah.. although it would depend on kung anong klaseng "empleyado/talent pool". Although its not wrong to treat yourself once in a while, I just hope we'll all think for the long term.

Ironkiwi · « **Reply #5 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 03:07 PM »

Bakit ba hindi, doon ako sa positive side. Kung magiging maayos ang mga tao sa ating gobyerno sa loob ng 30~40 years posibleng maging totoo iyan, Keeping my finger cross.

Palamig · « **Reply #6 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 04:57 PM »

.... 30 to 40

Quote from: Ironkiwi on Jul 05, 2012, 03:07 PM

Bakit ba hindi, doon ako sa positive side. Kung magiging maayos ang mga tao sa ating gobyerno sa loob ng 30~40 years posibleng maging totoo iyan, Keeping my finger cross.

.....30 to 40 years dadami ng husto ang basura, walang saysay na ang pasko dahil di na natin mararamdaman ang essence nito sa sobrang kahirapan. Education, baka mag depreciate ito ng hust rin. Prostitution masyado na ring talamak at Jueteng kahit kailan di yan ma lelegalize dahil ayaw ng mga government officials na kasangkot na magkaroon ng tax sa sugal na yan, xiempre dahil mawawalan na sila ng extra income from illegal gambling. At kick back sa mga government purchased napakalaki baka aakya ng 70% base sa karanasan ko. Kung walang silbi mga ideas ko, paki delete na lang po. hehehehe.... pasensya na kung sweet ako sa lahi natin. mwuah..,

george88 · « **Reply #7 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 05:17 PM »

Oh yeah... at that time I'm already 55 even I drive a luxury cars I can't date a gorgeous young lady on that time but possible to a gorgeous single mom...What a dream

But I am 100% sure that in 2040... I'm in the province already retire, resting in my vacation house, taking care my agriculture and livestock business together with my wife...

Palamig · « **Reply #8 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 05:23 PM »

Quote from: george88 on Jul 05, 2012, 05:17 PM

Oh yeah... at that time I'm already 55 even I drive a luxury cars I can't date a gorgeous young lady on that time but possible to a gorgeous single mom...What a dream

But I am 100% sure that in 2040... I'm in the province already retire, resting in my vacation house, taking care my agriculture and livestock business together with my wife...

Insha allah basha, that it will happen... good luck to you.

jawo · « **Reply #9 on:** Jul 05, 2012, 10:19 PM »

Di naman na kailangan ng 30-40 years para masabi yan. Kung bawat isa sa atin isasa-puso ang pag-unlad kahit 10 years lang kaya. Mas mabilis kung pati kurapsyon matanggal mga 5 years na lang. hehehe

guy17 · « **Reply #10 on:** Jul 06, 2012, 02:02 AM »

Quote from: jawo on Jul 05, 2012, 10:19 PM

Di naman na kailangan ng 30-40 years para masabi yan. Kung bawat isa sa atin isasa-puso ang pag-unlad kahit 10 years lang kaya. Mas mabilis kung pati kurapsyon matanggal mga 5 years na lang. hehehe

malabo mawala ang corruption, even we the citizens are corrupt.. ika nga nila walang corrupt kung hindi ka papa corrupt hehe
kaso mahilig din tayo mag lagay, mag gamit ng mga fixers, madami sa atin gusto shortcut.. hindi lahat pero karamihan

makasabat_po · « **Reply #11 on:** Jul 06, 2012, 06:17 AM »

Hindi naman sa pagiging negative pero i don't think this would happen. Malabo pa sa tubig na binulabog ng hito ang chance na umangat ang Pilipinas. Hindi pa dahil lang sa corruption. Kasi lahat naman ng bansa kahit America pa ay may corruption. Problem is may ibang bansa na kahit may corruption, andun pa rin yung sense of delivering social services. Ibig sabihin ok nangungurakot sila pero may tinitira sila sa tao. Ikalawa, merong clear vision yung ibang gobyerno na sa atin di mo makikita. When i say clear vision seryoso ang mga bansa gaya ng Thailand, malaysia, Indonesia at Singapore na abutin yung target nilang economic growth, hindi man nila maabot pero may malinaw silang plano at intensyon, at mga hakbang na ginagawa para abutin yung tinarget nila. Eh tayo? Si Pnoy?? Wala. Panay ang hearing sa Senado, kunyari naglilinis ng gobyerno pero kaipokrituhan yun eh. Ilan na ba nakulong sa corrpution? Erap malaya uli. Ampatuan na mabigat na ebidensya pero wala pang malinaw na hatol. Corona makukulong ba yun? Pulitika ng may pera at nasa kapangyarihan ang umiiral sa Pinas. Bata-bata system. Yung mga dating kriminal sa Martial Law gaya ni Enrile ayan nakaupo pa nga. Senate president pa nga. Nadurog din ang values ng mamamayan. Hindi lang to sa gobyerno. Nawalan talaga ng disiplina ang mga tao at makikita yan sa mga simpleng transaksyon. Nadurog ang values system.

So poor justice system = bad economy

Walang values system = bad economy

Bad government = bad economy

At 30-40 yrs pa? taya pamato ko, malabo to.

bauer · « **Reply #12 on:** Jul 06, 2012, 10:17 PM »

Quote from: george88 on Jul 05, 2012, 05:17 PM

Oh yeah... at that time I'm already 55 even I drive a luxury cars I can't date a gorgeous young lady

luxury car not = to gorgeous young lady? Your kidding, right?

Post Merge: Jul 06, 2012, 10:24 PM

Quote from: makasabat_po on Jul 06, 2012, 06:17 AM

Hindi naman sa pagiging negative pero i don't think this would happen.

I also agree. we cannot grow our GDP by 12% per year and at the same time lower our population growth by 1% per year within the next 10 years at least. so hindi tayo yayaman katulad ng pag-unlad ng Malaysia in the next 20-30 years.

Individually perhaps there is a good chance depending on our own financial initiative and discipline.