[leo0707]

Gold declined for the first time in three sessions as the dollar advanced on concern that Spain’s financial situation is worsening, lowering the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment. Spanish banks are under scrutiny including Bankia, the third largest lender in the country after the government planned to inject money (19 billion euros) to recapitalized not by cash but through treasury debt. Later, ECB negatively expressed and rejected that idea and leads to a down grade in credit rating by Eagan Jones which is one of the rating firms. The rating company reduced Spain’s credit rating to B from BB-, the third downgrade in a month.

Earlier of yesterday, prices started to rebound after U.S consumer sentiment which showed more Americans are expecting a gloomy economy for the next six months. The sentiment came with 64.9 down from analysts expected to rise at 69.8. Gold climbed to $1582 after the disappointing data was released. The dollar has gained 4.8 percent this month while gold retreated 6.8 percent. Gold futures for August delivery dropped 1.3 percent to settle at $1,551 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the first decline for a most-active contract since 23rd of May.

Resistance 1: 1560

Resistance 2: 1569

Resistance 3: 1578

Support 1: 1540

Support 2: 1533

Support 3: 1523

[Sheridzma]

Are your levels good for the day or for the Asian market only? I normally change my levels depending on the market sentiment later in the day coz that is when the European and the US markets open.  Normally, during these times, volatility runs high and higher respectively.  It's hard to stick to the levels when you know the fundamentals will greatly influence them.

[leo0707]

Are your levels good for the day or for the Asian market only? I normally change my levels depending on the market sentiment later in the day coz that is when the European and the US markets open.  Normally, during these times, volatility runs high and higher respectively.  It's hard to stick to the levels when you know the fundamentals will greatly influence them.

Those are for the day and in all markets..=) we have one important economic news in U.S which is Pending Home Sales so i guess the levels i mentioned are fair enough.. it doesn't mean that we can close our eyes after the data, we need to be awake as uncertainties over Europe intensifies. If gold will break the second area of support which is at 1533 it might challenge the 1520 level as soon as today..

what about you sir? what do expect gold will look like today?

[Sheridzma]

Those are for the day and in all markets..=) we have one important economic news in U.S which is Pending Home Sales so i guess the levels i mentioned are fair enough.. it doesn't mean that we can close our eyes after the data, we need to be awake as uncertainties over Europe intensifies. If gold will break the second area of support which is at 1533 it might challenge the 1520 level as soon as today..

what about you sir? what do expect gold will look like today?

your first resistance and firs support has nowhere been touched by the gold spot price and the european market has already opened.  It might be hit in a little while.  Although consumer confidence last night was bad for the US, still, the price for gold went down and this was due to the downgrading of spain by the agency.  And earlier in the day the Asian market still digested this idea.  I am waiting for the Italian auction bond that will be held this 4pm my time, and the result might affect the trending of gold.  Yep, pending home sales might move the gold but I am also looking forward to the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi on how they are going to handle the rising problems in Spain and in Greece.  This might be interesting then.

[leo0707]

your first resistance and firs support has nowhere been touched by the gold spot price and the european market has already opened.  It might be hit in a little while.  Although consumer confidence last night was bad for the US, still, the price for gold went down and this was due to the downgrading of spain by the agency.  And earlier in the day the Asian market still digested this idea.  I am waiting for the Italian auction bond that will be held this 4pm my time, and the result might affect the trending of gold.  Yep, pending home sales might move the gold but I am also looking forward to the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi on how they are going to handle the rising problems in Spain and in Greece.  This might be interesting then.

even if two markets overlap one another it doesn't mean that it should touch the first area of resistance and support..its true european markets are open but only minor news came out few hours back and i expect no fluctuation for that..i am waiting for the Italian 10-year Bond Auction, us pending home sales, and speech from ecb president mario draghi, those data are very interesting to us..what are your expectation levels?

[Sheridzma]

even if two markets overlap one another it doesn't mean that it should touch the first area of resistance and support..its true european markets are open but only minor news came out few hours back and i expect no fluctuation for that..i am waiting for the Italian 10-year Bond Auction, us pending home sales, and speech from ecb president mario draghi, those data are very interesting to us..what are your expectation levels?

as per my pivot computations my 1st resistance is 1570 and 1st support is 1542.  Yep, no big news have been released yet although the 10-year auction bond in italy will soon be released.  Yep, those are the data tonight phil time that would really make an impact in the trending of gold.  as of now i am still waiting for any price advancement but sadly, it is just ranging.  So perhaps, the data tonight will make big movements in the market.  Since the previous figure for the pending home sales is good for the US economy, and the forecasted figure is seasonally adjusted, I am expecting that gold would go down and perhaps do touch or surpass the long-awaited 1520 level since it's already giving double bottom indication.  But if the speech of ECB Draghi proves to be a really good news and a solution for the Eurozone crises, then gold might just hold on above 1520 and start resuming its bullrun.  US economy is still in the verge of recession and it wont be too long before US debt would burst its bubble. Plus september is a demand month for gold, that is a good thing to consider.

[leo0707]

Breaking news: ECB has not been consulted with Spanish bank recapitalization..
Post Merge: May 31, 2012, 03:03 PMWe saw some short covering and bargain hunting on gold yesterday. Earlier, gold prices went down as Spanish government struggling to find aid for its troubled lenders. Spanish government is planning to inject sovereign debt instead of asking directly for cash but there is one question looms, what would be the ECB role on that plan? A negative rumor spread all over media that ECB junked the plan and later on it was denied by ECB. Accordingly, the ECB has not been consulted with Spanish recapitalization.  Despite of the bearish posture, gold made a remarkable gain, a good indication that it’s getting its title back as safe haven asset.

Resistance 1: 1570

Resistance 2: 1580

Resistance 3: 1590

Support 1: 1550

Support 1: 1540

Support 1: 1530

[leo0707]

The precious metal is back on business as a strong safe-haven after U.S economic recovery officially in a slowest pace. It soared $86 from $1544 Friday’s low to $1630 Friday’s high after fewest Americans hired by private sectors for the month of May and abruptly, the theory of quantitative easing is back on the table as the main menu. The U.S non-farm payrolls added 66,000 jobs for the month of May much less than analyst anticipated rising to 150,000 jobs.  The anemic job creation started on the month of April which a seasonally adjusted figure came in 77,000 lower than 115,000 initially reported.  As a weak labor market was officially disclosed, at the same time unemployment rate surged to 8.2% from 8.1%.  Further, gold prices were well-supported with U.S manufacturing which slumped to 53.5 from 54.0 analysts’ expectation.  The slower pace of growth in the sector was partly due to a notable slowdown in the pace of production growth with the production index sliding to 55.6 in May from 61.0 in April.  The inventories index also fell to 46.0 in May from 48.5 in April, indicating acceleration in the pace of contraction in inventories.

Resistance 1: $1630

Resistance 2: $1640

Resistance 3: $1650

Support 1: $1610

Support 2: $1600

Support 3: $1590


Post Merge: Jun 04, 2012, 01:56 PM

as per my pivot computations my 1st resistance is 1570 and 1st support is 1542.  Yep, no big news have been released yet although the 10-year auction bond in italy will soon be released.  Yep, those are the data tonight phil time that would really make an impact in the trending of gold.  as of now i am still waiting for any price advancement but sadly, it is just ranging.  So perhaps, the data tonight will make big movements in the market.  Since the previous figure for the pending home sales is good for the US economy, and the forecasted figure is seasonally adjusted, I am expecting that gold would go down and perhaps do touch or surpass the long-awaited 1520 level since it's already giving double bottom indication.  But if the speech of ECB Draghi proves to be a really good news and a solution for the Eurozone crises, then gold might just hold on above 1520 and start resuming its bullrun.  US economy is still in the verge of recession and it wont be too long before US debt would burst its bubble. Plus september is a demand month for gold, that is a good thing to consider.

Month of September is already far for me to consider where gold prices are heading to. I think, during that time gold is already 1700 level again. At the moment, we can see strong gains on gold as U.S economy is officially in the slowest pace of recovery. We had weak labor market, unemployment soared, and manufacturing sector slowed last month. Clearly, its a strong indication that QE3 is back on the pit plus the unfolding debt crisis in Europe, those reasons are very supportive on gold.

[Sheridzma]

Hi Leo. How do you get your levels by the way?  What do you use in your computations?
Post Merge: Jun 04, 2012, 03:24 PM

The precious metal is back on business as a strong safe-haven after U.S economic recovery officially in a slowest pace. It soared $86 from $1544 Friday’s low to $1630 Friday’s high after fewest Americans hired by private sectors for the month of May and abruptly, the theory of quantitative easing is back on the table as the main menu. The U.S non-farm payrolls added 66,000 jobs for the month of May much less than analyst anticipated rising to 150,000 jobs.  The anemic job creation started on the month of April which a seasonally adjusted figure came in 77,000 lower than 115,000 initially reported.  As a weak labor market was officially disclosed, at the same time unemployment rate surged to 8.2% from 8.1%.  Further, gold prices were well-supported with U.S manufacturing which slumped to 53.5 from 54.0 analysts’ expectation.  The slower pace of growth in the sector was partly due to a notable slowdown in the pace of production growth with the production index sliding to 55.6 in May from 61.0 in April.  The inventories index also fell to 46.0 in May from 48.5 in April, indicating acceleration in the pace of contraction in inventories.

Resistance 1: $1630

Resistance 2: $1640

Resistance 3: $1650

Support 1: $1610

Support 2: $1600

Support 3: $1590


Post Merge: Jun 04, 2012, 01:56 PMMonth of September is already far for me to consider where gold prices are heading to. I think, during that time gold is already 1700 level again. At the moment, we can see strong gains on gold as U.S economy is officially in the slowest pace of recovery. We had weak labor market, unemployment soared, and manufacturing sector slowed last month. Clearly, its a strong indication that QE3 is back on the pit plus the unfolding debt crisis in Europe, those reasons are very supportive on gold.

true.  The Non-farm payroll proved to be lowest-than-expected and in fact it is regarded to be the lowest for this year.  An expectation that it would exceed that 100,000K was surely dismissed by the fact that US dollars seem to be growing strong not on its own but by virtue of the deepening euro crisis.  What I am looking forward to this week is the Fed's beige book whereby perspectives on economic conditions will be released in preparation to the FOMC meeting this coming June.  Another interesting event would be the speech of Fed chair Bernanke where again he would report on the monetary policy of the US economy.  It was to be remembered that the last time he gave the speech there was no mention of the QE3 so a lot of traders chose to sell.  And then they were pissed when Bernanke made an announcement at the Press Conference that again, QE3 will still be on their agenda should it be necessary to stimulate growth in the economy.

For the traders, it would be good to thread cautiously on these data since the US market normally offers high volatility on normal occasions, this times might even move gold for higher gains/losses.  If February 29 of this year rings a bell, gold moved for almost $10,000 so for those who made a good move, that was really awesome but then again for those who did not, that was a lesson to be learned.

like what I have said, month of september is a gold month and by that time, gold would have probably reach or if not breach the 1920s level.  We are already seeing the triple bottom, from September 2011, indication in the chart and indeed, it would be a good time to buy since we are looking at a huge possibility of Quantitative easing not only in the US but also in the Euro if these economies would continue to be choking in their problems.

Again guys, there is no wrong in diversifying your portfolio.  You just have to know when and how to do it so that this investment would not disappoint you.  It is time for Gold.  It is time to profit on it.

[Sheridzma]

Yesterday gold moved in the market within the range of $1,000-$2,700 per troy ounce. You could have earned atleast 200$ out of it, and if you multiply it for 20 trading days in a month, that would have been something. Judging by the market sentiment at this moment for the Asian market, gold would still be tugging but there is a chance for the gold price to shoot up since there is a strong possibility of monetary stimulus in the US economy. Fed Chair Bernanke would certainly attest to that.

Today's data release that you need to watch out for are the following:
Spanish 10-yr bond auction, the unemployment claims as released by the US department of Labor, and most importantly, the speech of Fed Chair Bernanke regarding monetary policy.   

R2 = 1652
R1 = 1636

S1 = 1609
S2 = 1597

[leo0707]

Hi Leo. How do you get your levels by the way?  What do you use in your computations?
Post Merge: Jun 04, 2012, 03:24 PMtrue.  The Non-farm payroll proved to be lowest-than-expected and in fact it is regarded to be the lowest for this year.  An expectation that it would exceed that 100,000K was surely dismissed by the fact that US dollars seem to be growing strong not on its own but by virtue of the deepening euro crisis.  What I am looking forward to this week is the Fed's beige book whereby perspectives on economic conditions will be released in preparation to the FOMC meeting this coming June.  Another interesting event would be the speech of Fed chair Bernanke where again he would report on the monetary policy of the US economy.  It was to be remembered that the last time he gave the speech there was no mention of the QE3 so a lot of traders chose to sell.  And then they were pissed when Bernanke made an announcement at the Press Conference that again, QE3 will still be on their agenda should it be necessary to stimulate growth in the economy.

For the traders, it would be good to thread cautiously on these data since the US market normally offers high volatility on normal occasions, this times might even move gold for higher gains/losses.  If February 29 of this year rings a bell, gold moved for almost $10,000 so for those who made a good move, that was really awesome but then again for those who did not, that was a lesson to be learned.

like what I have said, month of september is a gold month and by that time, gold would have probably reach or if not breach the 1920s level.  We are already seeing the triple bottom, from September 2011, indication in the chart and indeed, it would be a good time to buy since we are looking at a huge possibility of Quantitative easing not only in the US but also in the Euro if these economies would continue to be choking in their problems.

Again guys, there is no wrong in diversifying your portfolio.  You just have to know when and how to do it so that this investment would not disappoint you.  It is time for Gold.  It is time to profit on it.

indeed, he shocked all of us and even he wasn't yet starting his speech. Just an appearance of his face on the screen, dramatically gold prices surged, according to one of our clients. His speech was exactly the same from the previous one. He reiterated that FED is ready to act whenever it is necessary.  Some US fundamentals are clearly stating that they're losing momentum, however, they are also watching any signs of progress in Europe since Greek election will take place on 17th of June. What i think is that, the Fed has options. It might continue its Operation twist as it is due this month but i consider this solution as dovish. It needs to consider how much risk it will face from Eu debt crisis and after that, i think that would be the right time to put QE3 as the main menu.
Post Merge: Jun 15, 2012, 01:13 AMYesterdays fundamentals made a fresh buying opportunity in gold after US producer price index and retail sales dropped as weak labor market and subdued income damped demand in automobiles. Gold prices soared to $1625 after touching $1606. US PPI slumped to 1% as weak labor market which private sectors added 69,000 jobs for the month of May from 77,000 jobs seasonally adjusted figure on April.  It was affected mainly due to cheaper fuel that overshadowed inflation. Further, retail sales dropped to 0.2% and weak labor market is to be blamed which leads to more pressure on the Fed to initiate QE3.  However, the actual figure came out in line with analyst expectation. 
Post Merge: Jun 15, 2012, 02:26 PMAs expected consumer price index dropped to 0.3% after PPI slumped 1.0% on Wednesday. These two are highly correlated. The pull back in inflation was due to a cheaper fuel which energy cost dropped 4.3 percent a month earlier, the largest decline since December 2008.  Gasoline prices slumped 6.8 percent and the costs of natural gas and fuel oil also fell. Energy cost declined 3.9 percent compare to the same month a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S unemployment claims soared for the week ended 9th of June; boosting labor market is softening its momentum and giving the Fed flexibility to take monetary policy. It is unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000, Labor Department figures showed. As a result, gold climbed to $1628 after touching $1615 yesterday.

R1:1630

R2:1638

S1:1618

S2:1605

Post Merge: Jun 15, 2012, 02:33 PM

Hi Leo. How do you get your levels by the way?  What do you use in your computations?
Post Merge: Jun 04, 2012, 03:24 PM
im not using any formula on my support and resistance level..hows trading sheridzma? gold is very choppy lately, i dont think the current level is correct. when times of uncertainties like now, gold should be above 2,000..i think, there's something going on behind the stage..what do you think?

[Sheridzma]

Hi leo. Trading's good for now if you are doing scalping on the asian market.  Asian markets offer low volatility kasi and the way the market closed on early saturday at 1626 and opened this morning at 1615, it was a good time to make a buying position.  We all know when there is a disparity in the gaps there is a tendency for the trend to go up to fill the gap.  I profited 600$ in 1 hour ^_^. 

Post Merge: Jun 18, 2012, 10:59 AMSince the pro-bailout party won the most votes last sunday on the parliamentary election, it certainly eased immediate concerns regarding the nation's future participation in the euro area.  But the victory is short-lived because it remains to be seen if the party can form a viable government which can really help in the bail-out funds.

Levels to watch for today is:

R2 = 1640.52
R1 = 1632.57

S1 = 1619.44
S2 = 1612. 26

Indeed, gold should have reached the 2,000$ level because of economic uncertainties.  However, the traders are awaiting the result of the FOMC meeting and there has been speculations roaming the market that the FED might reiterate their stand that there might be no QE3 because the negative US data releases last week could only be treated as minor set backs to the growth of the US economy.  So for those who are on for the buying of gold, they are just waiting for the confirmation.  Still., if the US data would continue to be negative for the economy, then we are probably looking at the reversal pattern for gold.

Take note that global Central Banks are also waiting on the end result of the FOMC meeting so any buying programs are stalled for now.  while this is happening, the market tends to be jittery.  Until we have a clear view of the trend of gold, traders might want to do some scalping instead to take advantage of their short movement of the gold in the market.  If you have your indicators that you are comfortable with, stick to the 10-trade rule before you change your trading plan.  For the long-term investors, be mindful of how tolerant your equity can get in case the market price would go against your position.

[leo0707]

Hi leo. Trading's good for now if you are doing scalping on the asian market.  Asian markets offer low volatility kasi and the way the market closed on early saturday at 1626 and opened this morning at 1615, it was a good time to make a buying position.  We all know when there is a disparity in the gaps there is a tendency for the trend to go up to fill the gap.  I profited 600$ in 1 hour ^_^. 

indeed, that's smart..i took buy position on eurusd,full margin, then i closed it at 1.2725 ^_^.  i was not sure if it will create a gap on bullion market so i decided to took eurusd..
Post Merge: Jun 18, 2012, 09:21 PM

Hi leo. Trading's good for now if you are doing scalping on the asian market.  Asian markets offer low volatility kasi and the way the market closed on early saturday at 1626 and opened this morning at 1615, it was a good time to make a buying position.  We all know when there is a disparity in the gaps there is a tendency for the trend to go up to fill the gap.  I profited 600$ in 1 hour ^_^. 

Post Merge: Jun 18, 2012, 10:59 AMSince the pro-bailout party won the most votes last sunday on the parliamentary election, it certainly eased immediate concerns regarding the nation's future participation in the euro area.  But the victory is short-lived because it remains to be seen if the party can form a viable government which can really help in the bail-out funds.

Levels to watch for today is:

R2 = 1640.52
R1 = 1632.57

S1 = 1619.44
S2 = 1612. 26

Indeed, gold should have reached the 2,000$ level because of economic uncertainties.  However, the traders are awaiting the result of the FOMC meeting and there has been speculations roaming the market that the FED might reiterate their stand that there might be no QE3 because the negative US data releases last week could only be treated as minor set backs to the growth of the US economy.  So for those who are on for the buying of gold, they are just waiting for the confirmation.  Still., if the US data would continue to be negative for the economy, then we are probably looking at the reversal pattern for gold.

Take note that global Central Banks are also waiting on the end result of the FOMC meeting so any buying programs are stalled for now.  while this is happening, the market tends to be jittery.  Until we have a clear view of the trend of gold, traders might want to do some scalping instead to take advantage of their short movement of the gold in the market.  If you have your indicators that you are comfortable with, stick to the 10-trade rule before you change your trading plan.  For the long-term investors, be mindful of how tolerant your equity can get in case the market price would go against your position.

Over the weekend, Greeks decided to stay in the euro after the pro bailout parties won. New Democracy had 30.1 percent, the anti-bailout party Syriza had 26.5 percent, and the Socialist Party Pasok at third place with 12.6 percent. Thanks to the 50 seats bonus awarded to New Democracy, forming a new coalition is now possible. Combine the number of seats with New Democracy and Pasok; it is more than enough to form a new government.  The pressure on New Democracy is when to initiate to come up with new government who will continue the austerity-measure which initially agreed.  Everyone in the world is urging them to do asap.  One of the elected representatives from Pasok party said that she would like to form a coalition together with Syriza, however, it rejected by Alexis Tsipras.
The question that everyone asks, if the newly elected parties can create a new government how it will affect the bullion market?

I think, it won’t affect that much as everyone is more concern on QE3 that most likely it won’t happen this week. QE3 is possible when the Fed sees the situation is worst. What I’m trying to say is that, contagion of financial crisis is far from resolve. The Europe has still Spain who recently yield surged to 7.14 percent and bellow is Italy which yields at 6.3 percent.  I’m riding on the wave nowadays, no clear trend for gold.

R1: 1630

R2: 1639

R3: 1650

S1: 1615

S2:1605

S3:1596

[leo0707]

Gold declined as an aftermath of the announcement made by the Fed. The FOMC lead by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke extended operation twist where selling the short-term debt and buying the long-term ones.  The decision made possible and thanks to the result of the Greek election where pro bail-out parties won where New Democracy took 29.6% or an equivalent of 129 seats including 50 seats as a bonus. Combining with the socialist party Pasok at third place with 12.3% or 33 seats, the pro bail-out parties set to form a new government. After days, Greek new coalition formed with Antonis Samaras as the new premier.  Worries from Grexit somehow curtailed and optimism made all markets at the high. However, when we woke up from déjà vu everything changed.  The epicenter of Europe’s financial crisis shifted from Greece to Spain. Spanish government is closely scrutiny the bad banking system which pushed the credit rating agency to downgrade both minor and major lenders.  Along with 25% unemployment rate, Spanish yields climbed to 7.3% a new euro era record. After Spain, Europe has still Italy to buy some worries. Italy’s borrowing cost rose and yields nearly 7%, might be the next country who will seek financial aid from the European government.  Fed Ben Bernanke acknowledges the risk from Europe’s financial crisis.  The Eu crisis somehow affected the U.S economy. Unemployment rate is still elevated at 8.2%, weak housing market, pale consumer spending, and etc, resulting to a gradual economic recovery. At the moment, I’m cautiously bearish on gold but at the same time us dollar is too weak to break $1520, the strongest support.