Hi guys, I just noticed this while I was doing research for our subject Disease Prevention and Control, and I think TDY share holders would be interested with this.
Summary: This is GATS or General Adult Tobacco Survey conducted by the WHO in many countries, luckily this included the Philippines. However, this was done back in 2009 and many things could have changed, but this is the latest and I work with what I have.
One of the things I noted here were as follows:"
- Fortune tobacco dominated the market:
- 33% of the respondents answered that the last brand that they ever bought was Fortune.
- I also noticed that when the smokers were asked what brand they last purchased, all the brands they answered were part of either Fortune Tobacco Company or Phillip Morris -Fortune Tobacco Company except for 13% that were classified as 'óthers'
- Average cigarette expenditure by Filipinos was at Php 326.4/month
- 17.3M Filipinos are smokers and out of that number 13.8M Filipinos smoke EVERYDAY
- There is only a 21.5% quitting rate among the daily smokers
- so Php 326.4 x 13.8M = over Php 4.5B in revenue per month for the tobacco manufacturers.
- and then there's another 3.5M (17.3-13.8 ) people who don't smoke everyday so Php 326.4 x 3.5M = 1.142B in additional revenues per month, but it's likely to fluctuate since they don't smoke everyday.
- Age of initiation in smoking was 17.6 years old over all, but I don't know at what age they quit.
My thoughts: Sin tax or no sin tax I think this might still a very lucrative business, but I don't know about the other companies that are going to be consolidated in LT's group, it's still hard to make a decision if TDY is a buy, since it's quite expensive for my taste at the moment and I don't smoke
but I hope this helps.
http://www.who.int/tobacco/surveillance/gats_philippines_fact_sheet.pdf - Fact Sheet (Shorter)
http://www.who.int/tobacco/surveillance/2009_gats_report_philippines.pdf Research Paper (Complete)