[tasyongpilosopo]

historically, bumababa ba ang prices ng stocks pag malapit na ang election ?

i plan to hold buying until around election time... ?  

[uranium698]

Elections may hold key to Philippine market prospects
Feb. 19, 2010, 1:13 a.m. EST
The Wallstreet Journal, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- As the Philippines prepares for presidential elections in May, some analysts fear political uncertainty will add to existing worries over the country's high fiscal deficit, not to mention the impact of a dry spell on agriculture and a power shortage.

With less than three months to the May 10 polls -- which will elect a new president and vice-president to six-year terms -- the race is seen as too close to call.

The campaign period has also been marred by reports of violence on the one hand, and fears that a power shortage in the country may affect the elections, which for the first time will be conducted by using an untested automated system.

"The elections come at a precarious time for the country. Growth has barely begun to recover, the budget deficit is stuck in red, and inflation may begin to rear its head sooner than many now believe," HSBC economists led by Frederic Neumann wrote in a report.

75%50%25%0%-25%MAMJJASON10FOfficial figures released earlier this week showed that the Philippines' budget deficit widened to a record 298.5 billion pesos ($6.5 billion) in 2009 -- about 3.9% of the nation's gross domestic product. The government also forecast a deficit of 290.2 billion pesos for 2010, raising fears that interest rates may jump on borrowings to finance the gap.

"This year especially, the race bears watching: While observers are always quick to anoint a clear front-runner, the race appears to us too close to call," HSBC economist said. "Moreover, for the first time, the country will use an automatic ballot system, which, while intended to prevent interference, is yet untested."

The presidential race this year is seen as a close contest between Benigno Aquino, the son of former President Corazon Aquino, and Manuel Villar, a billionaire and former opposition leader.

Media reports citing an independent Pulse Asia survey recently showed Aquino with 37% of the vote and Villar with 34%. The presidential race has two other candidates -- former defense chief Gilberto Teodoro and former President Joseph Estrada - though they are seen as unlikely to win.

While Aquino is considered "the sentimental favorite," Villar's supporters include "technocrats, who see him as the most business-friendly of the leading candidates," according to HSBC.

Media reports this week showed campaign violence remains a cause for worry. An Agence France-Presse report published Thursday said at least 65 people have been killed in the run-up to the elections. The report added that more than 1 million unlicensed firearms are believed to be on the streets of the country, in addition to 1.8 million legal weapons, according to police estimates.

Furthermore, a power shortage has also drawn several protests, especially in Mindanao in southern Philippines. Local media reports say officials are making efforts to ensure that the island's power shortage won't affect the automated voting machines on Election Day in May.

But while power supplies have been problematic, power companies have done well.

Fed Rate Call Makes For Cautious Asian TradingAsian share markets trade mostly lower on investor caution following the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hike up its discount rate. Asian traders are caught off guard by the rate decision's timing, Dow Jones Newswires' Puja Rajeev reports.
Philippine utilities such as Aboitiz Power Corp. and geothermal energy producer Energy Development Corp. have outperformed the broad market this year on a positive outlook for electricity prices and amid slower output at coal plants.

Aboitiz shares have risen more than 27%, and Energy Development has added over 5% so far this year. The PSE Composite index, meanwhile, has lost about 2% this year.

At the same time, consumer spending is also expected to improve during the campaigning period, with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets expecting commercial real-estate holdings company SM Prime Holdings to benefit from the increased spending.

Stocks in Manila were lower Friday amid worries over the rising deficit, with the Philippines PSE Composite Index dropping 0.7% to 2,978.53.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elections-hold-key-to-philippine-stock-prospects-2010-02-19

By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch

[brixxx214]

I think the political uncertainty, instability especially on government policies and direction due to the election will not make the stocks create good rallies as investors more likely may wait for some cue on the financial movements in lieu of a new leadership

[silent_investor]

As with other events, there are stocks that go up and down together or in reverse of the economy. There are stocks that are up these days because they are reciepient of election money (media related companies, basic food companies) and OFW money (properties). There are stocks that are down (banking) since overall market jitters have a direct effect on banks.

So election time, if you have specific stocks right now, think if they will be affected positively or negatively by the election. Personally, I think the market will react positively to some candidates and negatively to some candidates. So come election time, I'll determine if I'll position to take advantage of the upswing or stay in the sidelines.

[GoodSteward]

Specifically, do you guys think Villar-owned Vll or vista land stocks will be dependent on the result of the election?

[bauer]

yes, the market's movement is dictated by emotions not so much with reasons or financial performance.  if the market is predictable, everybody who invest in the stock market will be rich by now.  so definitely VLL will be volatile kaya siguro sa stock play binili ni GIGS ang VLL.  now it's clear.

[edspecks2004]

Going back to this topic, how will the election next year affect the Philippine Stock Market?
Medyo iba kasi ang political atmosphere ngayon.

[kimrnmd]

Haaay... please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, pero di ba it will always depend on kung sino tatakbo for the next elections and the aura that they will project unto the international community of investors? that's just my two cents anyways...

[wiggy]

60% of the time I like to buy during elections. Pag medyo bagsak ang presyo dahil sa pull-out ng mga major investors. I remember the time na hinabol ko talaga to place my investments before matapos ang elections. After the elections, stocks shot up again.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.

BUT of course it will depend on the economy prior to election and mga presendential candidates. Caveat!

[pmtmember]

thanks for the input sir @wiggy. This will be my first time so I will try to observe stocks movement in relation to election

[edspecks2004]

60% of the time I like to buy during elections. Pag medyo bagsak ang presyo dahil sa pull-out ng mga major investors. I remember the time na hinabol ko talaga to place my investments before matapos ang elections. After the elections, stocks shot up again.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.

BUT of course it will depend on the economy prior to election and mga presendential candidates. Caveat!

Sir, when you say during the elections, anong period ang tinutukoy nyo? is it a few days before the election?

[wiggy]

thanks for the input sir @wiggy. This will be my first time so I will try to observe stocks movement in relation to election

Welcome, just joining the conversation. I'll try to observe din next election.

Sir, when you say during the elections, anong period ang tinutukoy nyo? is it a few days before the election?

Prior election (analysis phase) and during election (executon phase) period.

For this mostly fundamentals analysis than technical ang approach. In order to reap profit, we would need to identify and take advantage of stocks that suffered major pull-outs by major investors. (due to major pull-out of investors due to election uncertainty, NOT because of company scandals or misfortune)

Election uncertainty: this is a natural and logical attitude of major investors, especially if they don't know if the will be elected president is as intelligent as a mushroom.

If major investors don't pull-out prior/during election, its a win for all of us, which means they have a bullish outlook.

Also this is based on a hard, sad, unfortunate assumption of the vested interest of the elected official and major investors...

- Have you identified the companies that would benefit if Villar won the last election..?
- Who would have thought Pnoy would kill mining? But hey, mining had its run last 2011

CAVEAT!

[mamee]

Ano ano kayang stocks ang maaapektuhan next election?