Author Topic: Value investors thread (Read 108579 times)

spidermannn · « **Reply #1470 on:** Jul 21, 2012, 02:45 PM »

i got FDC, then i got ACR...value and speculative. ..business is good, stock price will follow...since PB nya is 6.22/ share...

finance123 · « **Reply #1471 on:** Jul 21, 2012, 08:48 PM »

Before, I did some analysis on FDC and SGI.

FDC

FDC is cheap on PBV ratio; however, the company has a higher leverage compared to other
conglomerates. Is it because they hold a significant portion of Eastwest bank. Low dividend yield.

I will make a simple analysis for FDC once I have time - busy ako masyado sa work at studies.

TSO · « **Reply #1472 on:** Jul 22, 2012, 07:26 AM »

Re: koppenheffer's article:

Word to the wise... being "out of the market" means you're in cash. Not "you're not trading". there's a difference.

finance123 · « **Reply #1473 on:** Jul 22, 2012, 09:08 PM »

I am analyzing FDC. It's so hard. The company has five (5) business segments:

1. Real Estate Businesses (Residential and Commercial)
2. Financial Services through Eastwest Bank
3. Hotel Businesses
4. Sugar Business
5. Mall and Rental

The first two business accounts for 83% of the revenues.

spidermannn · « **Reply #1474 on:** Jul 22, 2012, 10:30 PM »

para saken malayo pa arangkada ng FDC since may boom sa property, ung bloomberg and financial time, good and forecast nila dito..

TSO · « **Reply #1475 on:** Jul 23, 2012, 12:49 AM »

Quote from: finance123 on Jul 22, 2012, 09:08 PM

I am analyzing FDC. It's so hard. The company has five (5) business segments:

1. Real Estate Businesses (Residential and Commercial)
2. Financial Services through Eastwest Bank
3. Hotel Businesses
4. Sugar Business
5. Mall and Rental

The first two business accounts for 83% of the revenues.

My tips to you:

1) Historical performance of all five. Better yet, get unit sales for the first. For the second, split sales between interest and noninterest revenues and analyze related data.

2) For the latter three, check individual year on year growth rates. Identify management's strategy via annual report or investor relations. Then verify using industry analysis and macro data from NSO.

3) Valuation models must be done on a segment basis (until line of gross profits).

4) Place high emphasis on transparency. If you cannot find the info you want on public disclosures, increase your discount rate accordingly.

finance123 · « **Reply #1476 on:** Jul 23, 2012, 01:02 PM »

FDC ROE is around 7% for the past 3 years compared to double digits 10-15% for Ayala Corp, SM, Aboitiz.
Mataas ng Kaunti ang debt to equity Ratio: 1.87 or 65% of it assets is financed with debt compared to Ayala corp's 55%.

Du Pont Formula ROE = Net Profit Margin x Asset Turnover x Equity Multiplier

Its either mababa ang net profit margin or asset turnover ratio kaya mababa ang roe. (Is this the reason why mababa ang PBV ng FDC)?

I prefer to compute the Free Cash Flow (FCF) using Equity Method (Direct).

PRICE = FCF₂₀₁₃ PER SHARE / K

K = the cost of equity

FCF = OPERATING CASH FLOW LESS NET INVESTMENTS*

**Investments needed to maintain current operation (Both investments in fixed assets and working capital).

For K, I prefer to use yield of 10-year bond of FDC + 4% premium (arbitrary but suggested in the book).
Any idea ng yield ng 10-year bond ng FDC?

Or pwedi rin using CAPM.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TSO · « **Reply #1477 on:** Jul 23, 2012, 02:51 PM »

^

1. I suggest finding out which Du Pont element contributes to the 7% ROE, then looking for the primary factors behind it. ROE itself normally has no use in my models, but I take it as a factor in appraising risk.

2. I don't particularly care how you approximate the intrinsic value. Given that FDC is highly leveraged, why not compute the implied cost of debt and tack a 4% risk premium on the company?

decapolis · « **Reply #1478 on:** Jul 25, 2012, 03:30 PM »

FDC closed at 3.42% UP

First time i saw it green on my portfolio for months, let's see if it will continue. Good luck to us lol

finance123 · « **Reply #1479 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 01:45 AM »

Is short-selling allowed in PSE? Ano iyong tinatawag nilang SBL program??

drenevich · « **Reply #1480 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 09:32 AM »

Ang alam ko hindi allowed ang short selling sa PSE. I don't know how it works sa mga brokers or may special broker ba na nag ta-transact ng short selling. I asked my broker dati, hindi nya maintindihan. Ano daw yun short selling.hahaha!

akira0422 · « **Reply #1481 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 12:53 PM »

Net income for the first quarter of 2012 was at P460.5 million, which was P17.6 million or 4.0%
higher than the same period last year which was at P442.8 million. Net income attributable to Parent
was at P460.8 million.
Total operating income of P2.2 billion was up by P591.7 million or 37.4% from P1.6 billion in the
same period last year. Core earnings of the bank composed of net interest income and fee-based
income, exclusive of trading income, increased by P320.6 million or 21.2%. Net interest income of
P1.3 billion was P225.8 million or 20.7% higher than the P1.1 billion net interest income recorded in
the same period last year, largely due to increase in the Bank’s loan portfolio. Fee-based income, or
non-interest income exclusive of trading gains, stood at P513 million, which is P94.8 million or 22.6%
higher than the same period last year. Likewise, the Bank’s operating income was further boosted by
securities and FX trading gains, which increased by P211.6 million and P59.5 million, respectively.
21
The increase in loans portfolio resulted in an increase in booked provision for impairment and credit
losses of P308.1 million, which is P228 million higher than the P79.6 million provisions in the same
period last year. The increase was partly attributed to the release of excess provisions that
accumulated prior to 2011 due to conservative provisioning.
Compensation and fringe benefits of P414.6 million was P80.1 or 23.9% higher than the same period
last year as the Bank continued its branch and business expansion and hiring of key positions across
the Bank. Taxes and licenses of P180.8 million increased by P81.3 or by 81.8% as a direct result of
increase in operating income. Rent expense of P88.3 million, was P27.9 million or 46.2% higher, due
to expansion of business lines, particularly the new branches. Depreciation and amortization expense
of P126 million was P44.0 million or 53.3% higher due to expansion related activities. Other expense
of P561.2 million, increased by P180.3 or 47.3% as a result of higher advertising expenses due to rebranding
and marketing programs, technology related fees and software maintenance. Provision for
income tax declined by P68.0 million or 68.0% due to increase in deferred income tax arising from
higher provision for impairment and credit losses.
Hi VEs Im confused seemed ok and undervalued thios EW, but some pips from the banking industry leaked to stay cautious on EW... I cant decide whether current figures reflect its current stability and viable expansion plans.can anyone shed light.

bauer · « **Reply #1482 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 12:58 PM »

^akira, to help you more, can you post the latest FS? unahin mo muna yung income statement, then after ng mga comments. post mo naman balance sheet, then after a while cash flow sheet para ma digest isa isa

finance123 · « **Reply #1483 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 01:02 PM »

Bank analyses require different approach. I have exposure to EW. I find EW risky compared to other banks.
Major risk to consider are the following:
1. Credit Risk - EW has significant unsecured loans and credit card receivables accounts a large chunk of their portfolios
relative to other banks. Ito lang talaga ang concerns ko for this bank.

2. Interest Rate Risk

3. Funding Risk

Pero I noticed then Unionbank makes a lot of money in trading treasury compared to EW.

bauer · « **Reply #1484 on:** Jul 26, 2012, 01:12 PM »

di ba generally credit card receivables are a good sign?

unsecured loans? Is it given out by the bank intended for lending or loans that the bank secured from the market to broaden their capital base?

mahina ang Unionbank in utilizing the bIG deposit base for loan expansion.