Author Topic: Value investors thread (Read 108421 times)

Greedisbad · « **Reply #1440 on:** Jul 15, 2012, 11:21 PM »

Quote from: finance123 on Jul 12, 2012, 06:36 PM

Do you use absolute valuation models like FCF Model or DDM?

I always find FCF models downright flawed and silly.

finance123 · « **Reply #1441 on:** Jul 16, 2012, 06:53 PM »

What financial model do you use then? I use FCF Model.

GIG · « **Reply #1442 on:** Jul 16, 2012, 10:41 PM »

Quote from: rds on Jun 15, 2012, 05:38 PM

i don't see any "finish line" in stocks, all i can see is a never ending ups and downs.

could be. traders may have gone 7 times in "finish line" and during the whole course - they win here they loose there; they take and give back; they win big, they loose big (if not all). It's not always the swift that wins the race.

"In skating over thin ice, our safety is on our speed" - Ralph Waldo Emerson.

For a trader to be profitable, he needs to be right 8 out of 10 times. This is not impossible, but the odds are grossly against average traders.

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #1443 on:** Jul 16, 2012, 11:23 PM »

^ not really.
a trader can be right about 5-7 times out of 10 & still be profitable

rds · « **Reply #1444 on:** Jul 16, 2012, 11:54 PM »

^if you are right only 5 out of ten, then you're an average, coz 5 of 10 is 50%.

you should at least be right 6 out of ten.

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #1445 on:** Jul 17, 2012, 12:05 AM »

^ hindi po ganyan ka-simple ang logic o statistics sa trading.
there is more than meets the eye.... parang transformers.

rds · « **Reply #1446 on:** Jul 17, 2012, 12:18 AM »

ooops. sori. common sense lang ginamit ko. i'm not the right person to comment since i'm not a trader. so i'll take your opinion, being a good trader, as the right thing regarding this.

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #1447 on:** Jul 17, 2012, 12:58 AM »

^ not a good trader. just sharing, Sir.
please do not take my word for it. kung may sobra kayong oras, i encourage you to find out for yourself.

rds · « **Reply #1448 on:** Jul 17, 2012, 01:37 AM »

thnx for the invitation, but my biggest problem is time, kayat di ako pwede sa trading...hopefully in the near future.

TSO · « **Reply #1449 on:** Jul 17, 2012, 06:08 AM »

Quote from: finance123 on Jul 12, 2012, 06:36 PM

Do you use absolute valuation models like FCF Model or DDM?

FCF model.

@ decapolis

Greece round II.

finance123 · « **Reply #1450 on:** Jul 19, 2012, 12:55 PM »

I sold my OV for .053 originally bought it for 0.02. My original valuation for this stock is .04 when i bought it several months ago. Return: 165% not bad. I still like the stock but its getting pricey.

I replaced it with OPM bought it now at .018. My valuation is 0.023.

nobagger · « **Reply #1451 on:** Jul 19, 2012, 02:17 PM »

Quote from: ferrariEverest on Jul 16, 2012, 11:23 PM

^ not really.
a trader can be right about 5-7 times out of 10 & still be profitable

Well, technically, a trader can be right 1 out of 10 times and still be profitable, if we mean "times" as his stock picls. If yung total loss ng 9 wrong stock picks niya ay maliit pa rin compared sa profit ng 1 right stock pick niya, then he made a profit.

TSO · « **Reply #1452 on:** Jul 19, 2012, 03:12 PM »

Hey FIN123,

Any thoughts on Holcim (HLCM)?

I'm analyzing the global conglomerate for my US portfolio, and suddenly I thought, WAIT A F*CKIN' MINUTE, it's public in the Philippines!

ferrariEverest · « **Reply #1453 on:** Jul 19, 2012, 03:31 PM »

Quote from: nobagger on Jul 19, 2012, 02:17 PM

Well, technically, a trader can be right 1 out of 10 times and still be profitable, if we mean "times" as his stock picks. If yung total loss ng 9 wrong stock picks niya ay maliit pa rin compared sa profit ng 1 right stock pick niya, then he made a profit.

10%? that is a very weak win:loss ratio, specially if you consider trading is a relatively difficult business.

40-70% (& up) should be the target of a trader.