[fx1dr3r]

 

Anybody trading this pair? How long has it been falling? All week long?

It makes me wanna ask: "Where's the bulls at?"  

[ferrariEverest]

d bulls are seeping coffee, taking a break &/or licking some wounds  


Seriously, Stering is weak, just like d $. Cable is technically & fundamentally weak, i believe.

[fx1dr3r]

Yes, it seems that the focus is global now. Not just on the slowing economy of US. People are looking at a global economic weakening and dollar has more attrition.  

[gritzvon]

Yah dude! In the light of possible bad data for UK next week. This cud go down some more.  
Posted on: Aug 09, 2008, 02:11 PMThis is my first time in here. Didnt knew thers a forex forum in the Phil that's not tied up with a broker.  

I dn't know if there are many Filipinos trading forex. Also wana know how good we are.  

I'm thinkin of postin a challenge. Watch our for a new topic.  

[beast_master]

Given the recent outcome of events I could cite the following reasons why the cable is in a downward spiral:

1) Weak Fundamentals - the past few weeks GBP has released not so good economic data which only confirms that they're economy is slowing down. GDP falling, Retail Sales dropping, PMI weakening, Dismal Housing reports, Increase of unemployment, etc.  All these are putting pressure on BoE for a rate cut. Once a rate cut happens expect the currency to fall further.  The only thing  holding them back is inflation concerns.

2) Strong Currency- Inspite of slowdown, it is amazing how the GBP has maintained its range at 1.93-2.00 level.  This is relatively overvalued compared to the USD.  We have to understand that a strong currency makes it harder for businesses to move their products outside of the UK as a high currency makes them less competitive with regards to pricing. Thus putting more pressure on already descending growth curve. Same thing is happening to the EURO.

3) Stronger USD - I have to give it to the USD bulls.  Momentum has indeed shifted in favor of the dollar.  Part of this has something to do with selloff or early profit taking in the commodities market especially Gold and Oil making the USD as the safety haven for the meantime.  Another could be attributed to the resiliency of the US businesses as it continues to defy the odds of economic slow down as reflected from some recent better than expected 2Q profits from many US businesses.

Putting all these into consideration, I expect a bearish GBPUSD in the days to come especially now that it has broken the 1.93 support that has been there for sometime now.


Technically speaking, EW suggests that the break of 1.93 is a clear corrective wave C.  1.86 is my guesstimate target.

DiNapoli Levels also suggest that some strong supports were already taken out with the recent selloff. Below 1.90 is a possibility.

Monthly Bollinger Bands suggests also a break of 1.90 while stochs is approaching oversold. Fib 61.8 is at 1.86

Hope this helps.

[gdibizness]

1) Weak Fundamentals - the past few weeks GBP has released not so good economic data which only confirms that they're economy is slowing down. GDP falling, Retail Sales dropping, PMI weakening, Dismal Housing reports, Increase of unemployment, etc.  All these are putting pressure on BoE for a rate cut. Once a rate cut happens expect the currency to fall further.  The only thing  holding them back is inflation concerns.

yes, i agree on this. Shows weekness during past weeks.

Bro, are you using Fibonocci System? I know this is the basic one on charting method but can you teach me how to do it? I am having a hard time to study it all by my self. I am using different indicators but I like to also learn this method.

Thanks

[fx1dr3r]

Thanks beast_master! Very interesting.

I came across this thread in forex factory: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=99667 (The Race to Devalue). It's pretty interesting as well.

Im lookin at the longer timeframes. It seems that prices are currently at the 50% retracement from the september 2005 to september 2007 bull leg. It just happens to be at the 61.8% level fib fan line. It is also nearing a psychological level 1.9100 where prices reacted a couple of years ago. .. we'll see where it goes from here.

[fx1dr3r]

.. Good news on GBP this morning. Are we n the clear for 1.9150? Or could today be a continuation of the major downtrend? .. we'll see how the masses react to later eco data.
Posted on: Aug 12, 2008, 07:15 AM.. hope this breaks 1.9050 psyche level  
Posted on: Aug 12, 2008, 09:12 AM.. can this go up to 1.9098 / 1.9110?  
Posted on: Aug 12, 2008, 09:54 AMIf it breaks 1.9080.  
Posted on: Aug 12, 2008, 09:56 AM.. If 1.9050 is broken could cable spiral down to 1.9000?

[DARK_knightrader]

Cable should hit 1.88 before this week ends. just my thoughts

[fx1dr3r]

.. Could cable reach the 1.8900 psychological level before or at the UK session if it breaks and closes below the 1.8950 level?

[beast_master]

Cable should hit 1.88 before this week ends. just my thoughts

Whoaah!  Sir Dark_knightrader you're the man! Cable is now below 1.88! How much did you put in?

[DARK_knightrader]

^That was easy master beast. Anyone who knows where to look could have anticipated that move

I put in just enough to make me happy.

[ferrariEverest]

Sir Dark_knightrader,
oo nga.... even breached your forecast. may magic crystal ball ka ha...  

let's be specific, how much makes u happy?    

[beast_master]

Sir Dark_knightrader,
oo nga.... even breached your forecast. may magic crystal ball ka ha...  

let's be specific, how much makes u happy?    

Hmm, knowing sir DK, kung lumaban yan parang si George Soros.  Let me guess.  Nag place na naman tong si dark_knight ng more than 30% of his account lalo pag alam nyang tama sya.  Bawat trade nya, kabado lagi mga managed account nya, saka lang ngumingiti mga clients nya pag exit trade na. bwahahaha!

[fxgypsy]

Laki ng binaba ng GBPUSD ngaung araw. Buti nalang nakasakay ako. Sir DARK_knightrader patingin naman sa bolang kristal mo dyan!